Tuesday, October 8, 2024

Anticipating Tesla’s robotaxis

Thanks for reading Hyperdrive, Bloomberg's newsletter on the future of the auto world.Tesla is taking the wraps off a robotaxi this week, wi

Thanks for reading Hyperdrive, Bloomberg's newsletter on the future of the auto world.

Robotaxi Time

Tesla is taking the wraps off a robotaxi this week, with CEO Elon Musk having billed this as the most significant moment for the company since the unveiling of its first mass-manufactured car, the Model 3.

Coming ahead of the automaker's third-quarter earnings, the event should shed light on how Tesla and Musk are thinking about vehicle form factor, sensors and working with regulators. It could also double as a forum for promoting other surprise new products.

BloombergNEF clients can access a more complete breakdown of our expectations for the unveiling here, and Bloomberg Terminal clients can call up the report here. For Hyperdrive readers, let's discuss the robotaxi business model, charging infrastructure, potential new human-driven vehicles, and what all this could mean for Tesla's future.

The business model

During Tesla's second-quarter earnings call, Musk described how robotaxis — and perhaps existing Tesla vehicles — would be incorporated in a ride-hailing network managed by the company, with an operating model similar to how properties are rented on Airbnb. An app launch would amount to affirmation of this business model at a time when robotaxi developers are increasingly partnering with ride-hailing companies.

Musk has been mentioning an Airbnb-style offering on Tesla's earnings calls since 2014. More than 70% of the hosts on Airbnb in August were renting out just one unit — either a full property, or a room or bed — according to research firm AirDNA. However, there still are over 1.5 million multi-unit hosts, and the Airbnb platform is also populated by a variety of hotels and hostel properties.

For Tesla's robotaxi service to operate as pitched, it would require individuals or companies to purchase vehicles specifically for use on the ride-hailing platform, even if a large portion of robotaxi buyers end up contributing their primary vehicle to the shared pool.

Running a ride-hailing business is a challenge not automatically solved by removing the need for human drivers. Passengers leave personal items in vehicles, spill beverages and sometimes damage the vehicle, intentionally or unintentionally. During the testing and early stages of its robotaxi deployment, Waymo made its cars available through its own Waymo One service. The company has paired up with partners as it's expanded, working with Lyft in Phoenix since 2019 and adding Uber last year.

Last month, Waymo announced Uber would be the exclusive route for customers to access its vehicles in Austin and Atlanta, with Uber agreeing to take care of fleet management and services, such as cleaning and repairing vehicles. Automated-vehicle developer WeRide also has partnered with Uber for a dedicated fleet of self-driving vehicles in the United Arab Emirates. And General Motors-backed Cruise announced in August that it would partner with Uber as part of its planned relaunch of robotaxi operations in 2025.

Tesla launching its own app for its robotaxi service would be one more area where the company is parting with the general course of the industry.

Charging infrastructure

It would be fitting for the event to include some sort of announcement around wireless or automated charging, which would pair well with a driverless vehicle.

Tesla purchased German wireless-charging company Wiferion in June 2023. While it sold the company in October of last year, Tesla kept the core of Wiferion's engineering team, according to media reports.

Tesla is the largest operator of fast and ultra-fast public chargers in the US and Europe. In May 2024, Musk dismissed much of Tesla's Supercharger team, although many members were rehired over the following months. The introduction of wireless charging might help explain the dramatic strategic changes within the charging division.

Human-driven models?

With just five vehicles on offer — the Model S, X, 3, Y and Cybertruck — there's plenty of room in Tesla's lineup for a new vehicle to be introduced, particularly one at a lower price point of around $25,000.

If Tesla were to unveil a vehicle with a price tag of $25,000, it would be cheaper than 95% of cars sold in the US last year, essentially opening it to the entire US market. Even $30,000 would be less than what 87% of US buyers paid for new cars last year. Tesla executives have previously spoken about the launch of such a vehicle, but it's taken a backseat to the robotaxi.

What else?

The robotaxi launch could be about both robots and taxis.

Tesla has reported that the Optimus robot is completing battery-handling tasks in its factories, with a target of several thousand doing "useful things" for Tesla before the end of this year. Tesla is targeting 2026 for a production version of the robot that can be sold to other companies.

If the robotaxi is not fully ready for primetime, then expect Tesla to lean into new revenue streams, ranging from humanoid robots to other applications for its growing AI technology base.

News Briefs

Before You Go

GM's Kurt Kelty. Photographer: Victor J. Blue/Bloomberg

General Motors was so proud of its electric-vehicle battery when it showed it off four years ago, it gave it a name: Ultium. Now, the name is disappearing amid a broad strategic shift led by former Tesla executive Kurt Kelty. At GM's investor day Tuesday, Kelty plans to lay out GM's new approach to batteries a, including a plan to use different types of chemistries, a variety of cell shapes and different ways to package them for its EVs. "Our next-gen battery packs will have significantly less other parts, significantly less weight, significantly less cost," Kelty said in an interview. "We're moving fast."

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