While the aftermath of the US elections will be closely watched around the world for any number of reasons, many venture capitalists will be laser-focused on something that's not exactly at the top of everyone else's list: the pace of initial public offerings by leading crypto companies in the US. VC funds hoping for liquidity events have at least half a dozen crypto companies that may be prime to go public once the election results provide clarity on the outlook for two key topics: cryptocurrency regulation and a potential new Securities and Exchange Commission chair. Speculation has been swirling in the industry that candidates such as stablecoin issuer Circle Internet Financial, crypto exchange Kraken, custody service provider Fireblocks, analytics firm Chainalysis and trading platform eToro could potentially go public in the next year or two. These names have been making the rounds for several months but none of them has yet made it onto the public markets, though Circle did confidentially file its IPO plans with the SEC in January. Many in the industry attribute the dearth of crypto IPOs in recent years to current SEC Chair Gary Gensler, who has led a multitude of enforcement actions against industry heavyweights such as Coinbase, Binance and Kraken. For some industry watchers, the outlook for crypto IPOs has brightened, regardless of who wins in November. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump has voiced strong support for the crypto industry and pledged to fire Gensler if he wins. His Democratic opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris, has been more quiet on the topic, yet she has offered to support a regulatory framework for digital assets under appropriate guardrails. "Regardless of who wins, the post-election environment should be better for potential crypto IPOs," said Haseeb Qureshi, managing partner of San Francisco-based crypto VC fund Dragonfly Capital. While Trump could push the SEC to a more pro-crypto stance, Harris might "swap out Gensler for one of her own picks, which should result in more moderate crypto regulation in the US," he said. That could come as a relief to several VCs looking for exits at a time when Bitcoin is near all-time highs and risk appetites are returning. Still, it might not be easy for all IPO aspirants. "Some of the companies that have locked horns with the SEC might still find it difficult under a Harris administration," Qureshi said. "But less objectionable companies like Fireblocks and Chainalysis should have a much easier path to IPO, maybe even before next fall." |
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