Tuesday, October 22, 2024

A divided BRICS challenges the West

BRICS nations challenge US-led world order

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Vladimir Putin can't wait for the BRICS family photo to show he's far from isolated. But behind the scenes, the cracks are showing in the group that presents itself as a counterweight to the Western-led order.

They are squabbling over their expansion — Turkey wants in, Argentina said no thanks and Saudi Arabia is not sure about the merits of membership. They can't agree on a de-dollarized payment system, something Russia desires, given it's been shut out of SWIFT.

Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi both want to lead BRICS, but have had their own ax to bury over a border dispute. If they meet in Kazan, it will be the first time since the last BRICS summit hosted by South Africa last year. 

Brazil's Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (who cancelled after injuring his head) and South Africa's Cyril Ramaphosa have their own aspirations to set the agenda for the Global South. They will be hosting the Group of 20 this year and next and aren't shy about accusing the US of hypocrisy for denouncing Russia's invasion of Ukraine but being broadly uncritical in supporting Israel's war in Gaza.

Brazil and South Africa are aligned with India in not buying into some of the anti-Western sentiment pushed by China and Russia. They reserve the right to pick issues on a case-by-case basis but don't want to inflict economic self-harm. As this data visualization shows, not picking sides pays off in trade and investment.

In short, internal politics and egos are getting in the way of BRICS speaking with one voice on the world stage.

As Jim O'Neill, the former Goldman Sachs economist who coined the BRIC acronym in 2001, put it: "I am not sure what fruitful purpose it serves other than being a club that the US is not a part of."

The Kazan Expo center ahead of the BRICS summit. Photographer: Alexander Zemlianichenko/AP Photo

Global Must Reads

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is back in the Middle East for the 11th time in his so-far failed effort to engineer a cease-fire between Israel and Iran-backed militants since the attack on Israel more than a year ago. It may be the last chance for President Joe Biden's administration to secure a pause in Israel's multi-front conflict with Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon before the US election.

European policymakers losing sleep over their souring economies have another worry looming large: how much more damage Donald Trump could cause if he returns to the White House after next month's election. With memories of the former US president's first stint in office still fresh, they know his appetite to wage new trade wars threatens unavoidable fallout in a region whose position is far weaker than last time round.

WATCH: European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde talks about the risk of trade tariffs. Source: Bloomberg

India and China have ended their four-year border stalemate, a significant step toward easing tensions and paving the way for a possible meeting between the leaders of both nuclear-armed countries at the BRICS summit. Their relations have been frozen since June 2020 when clashes between soldiers along the disputed Himalayan border left at least 20 Indian and an unknown number of Chinese dead.

Some of Latin America's leftist leaders are struggling with public fears over crime and a failure to keep promises of social reform, making room for the return of more business-friendly governments in the region. Crucial tests loom next year when voters head to the polls in Ecuador, Bolivia and Chile, and in 2026, when Brazil, Colombia and Peru hold elections.

Mozambique faces a fresh flash point over Oct. 9 elections after opposition presidential candidate Venâncio Mondlane called for mass attendance at tomorrow's funeral of his lawyer, Elvino Dias, who was murdered by unknown gunmen over the weekend. The gas-rich African nation is on edge after police yesterday dispersed dozens of supporters of Mondlane, who provisional results show is coming second in the ballot that he says has been rigged.

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni's government is pushing through new legislation to salvage her controversial plan to stem undocumented migration after a court in Rome blocked her long-delayed program to divert asylum seekers to Albania.

A Peruvian judge sentenced former President Alejandro Toledo to more than 20 years in prison for taking an eight-figure bribe tied to a highway project construction.

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.'s eldest son said Vice President Sara Duterte "crossed the line" with her attacks on his father, saying she "doesn't know how to be a president," as the feud between the nation's biggest political clans escalates.

The UK will loan Ukraine £2.3 billion ($3 billion) to purchase military equipment using profits generated by frozen Russian assets.

Washington Dispatch

Trump rose to political power fueled by grassroots contributors giving in small increments. He's now relying on wealthy backers, including billionaires Elon Musk and Miriam Adelson, to underwrite his third White House bid.

The latest Federal Election Commission filings show the former president's political operation has raised nearly twice as much money — $515 million — from donors giving $1 million or more to super political action committees, compared with the $260 million his campaign has raised from small-dollar donors giving $200 or less.

The master of small-dollar fundraising, who's cumulatively raised more money from modest donors than any other politician in history, may be losing his touch.

One person to watch today: Former President Barack Obama will headline a rally for Vice President Kamala Harris in Wisconsin.

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Chart of the Day

People in Brazil's Amazon region are trapped in a vicious cycle in which deforestation begets poverty, and poverty begets deforestation. More than a fifth of the country's rainforest has vanished thanks mainly to agribusiness. But many of the 11.8 million destitute Brazilians in the area are subsistence farmers who burn down trees to plant crops to feed their families, and then lacking money for fertilizer, stake out a new patch of land when their soil is depleted.

And Finally

Murals punctuated with the fiery slogans of revolution have appeared across Dhaka in the wake of the collapse of Bangladesh's government and the ouster of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. Spray paint is giving voice to a traumatized population's competing visions of the country's future. One side is still loyal to Hasina's family, which is credited with winning independence and keeping religious extremists in check, while the other blends appeals for peace, equality and democracy with calls for vengeance against the exiled leader and her allies. As Kai Schultz reports, taming the dark impulses of this moment will be a tall order.

Students protest at the University of Dhaka in August. Photographer: Luis Tato/AFP/Getty Images

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