Wednesday, September 18, 2024

The London Rush: Inflation right on cue

August consumer prices rose 2.2%.

Hi, I'm Charles from Bloomberg UK's breaking news team, catching you up on this morning's business stories.

Give your local economist a pat on the back. Inflation figures for August this morning were exactly as they expected (on average), leaving a window open for the Bank of England to cut rates again this year.

Consumer prices rose 2.2% from a year earlier, the same pace as the previous month, and still under the BOE's forecast. Motor fuels pushed the measure downwards, but that was offset by higher prices for air travel.

The Bank is still expected to hold rates tomorrow, but with two more MPC meetings left in 2024, traders are pricing in cuts for both November and December.

Markets Today data diver Dave Goodman takes apart this morning's figures below.

What's your take? Ping me on X, LinkedIn or drop me an email at ccapel2@bloomberg.net. Oh, and do subscribe to Bloomberg.com for unlimited access to trusted business journalism on the UK, and beyond.

What We're Watching

Legal & General agreed to sell off Cala Group, a homebuilder focusing on plush areas in the south of England, the Cotswolds and Scotland to a fund managed by Sixth Street and Patron Capital for an enterprise value of £1.35 billion.

Elsewhere in the sector, uncertainty around October's budget and the possibility of higher taxes is making it harder for London's most expensive homes to sell.

Wizz Air is launching long-haul flights to Saudi Arabia but with none of the typical frills of long flights. "If you want to have more fun, you have to create the fun for yourself," said CEO Jozsef Varadi. "It's not going to be us who create it." Fair enough.

Global Catch-Up

Markets Today: Under the Hood

Here's your daily snap analysis from Bloomberg UK's Markets Today blog:

Today's inflation reading, at first glance, appeared to be a bit of a snoozer. 

All the key measures (headline CPI, core and services) were bang in line with forecasts, and the movement was mainly driven by technical or statistical quirks.

But below the surface, something interesting was going on. That means producer prices, often the bridesmaid in these releases, deserve a moment the spotlight.

Factory gate prices, paid by retailers rose by just 0.2% in August — below forecasts of a 0.5% gain. On the month, they unexpectedly fell. Meanwhile, input prices, paid by manufacturers for raw materials, fell 1.2% on the year thanks to a sharp drop in oil and fuel costs. Markets had expected a dip of 0.8%.

Both provide further evidence that inflation pressures are receding, and will be welcomed by BOE policy makers nervously looking out for signs of resurgent price gains.

David Goodman

Check Bloomberg UK's Markets Today blog for updates all day.

What's Next

Tomorrow is the day we've all been waiting for: Bank of England decision day. The bank is expected to hold rates, although this morning's inflation data would have fed into the committee's thinking. Tune in to the Markets Today blog at midday. 

In corporate earnings, Next and Ocado are expected to report, giving a crucial insight into the state of consumer finances.

Pub Quiz

Whose Chicago ultra mansion finally found a buyer

Hint, here are are the gates:

Photographer: Scott Olson/Getty Images North America

[Yesterday's answer: The Bear, which is perhaps controversially listed as a comedy, won four Emmys for Disney.]

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