Hi there, it's Helen Chandler-Wilde, a Bloomberg UK journalist and editor on the Readout. Hope you enjoy today's newsletter. Well, what a pivot week this is shaping up to be. Late on Wednesday we learnt that the Federal Reserve had chosen not to cut interest rates by a quarter-point but opted for the bolder route of a half-point, after more than a year of holding at a two decade-high. Fed Chair Jerome Powell explained that moving aggressively now would keep the economy ticking along for longer: "The labor market is actually in solid condition, and our intention with our policy move today is to keep it there. To me, the logic of this – both from an economic standpoint and also from a risk-management standpoint – was clear." But the Bank of England today chose a different approach, voting 8-1 to hold rates steady at 5%, with Governor Andrew Bailey saying that rates would be reduced "gradually over time." While Powell talked about the economic threat of downturns, Bailey talked about something else – inflation, saying it's "vital" to keep it down and therefore "we need to be careful not to cut too fast or by too much." In reaction to the decision, traders pared back bets for future cuts, although one is still fully priced in for November's meeting. Andrew Bailey and Jerome Powell last month Photographer: Bloomberg/Bloomberg Of course, monetary policy isn't the only way to get the economy heading towards the growth goals of Rachel Reeves. Bloomberg Opinion's Adrian Wooldridge discusses one way of doing that today: tackling the burden of long-term sickness that is keeping 900,000 working age adults out of employment since Covid. It's an issue even for those still working, with eight out of every 25 staff in an average workplace suffering from at least one long-term condition. This is also a major issue for people in the prime of their working life: previous numbers from the Office for National Statistics show that over half a million people out of work because of poor health are aged under 35. The reasons for this are a complicated mix of mental health conditions, the rising toll of obesity, and other conditions. Adrian writes that roughly a third of the country's disease burden is related to tobacco, junk food and alcohol, and is therefore to some extent preventable. Others still will be affected by treatable conditions, yet are stuck on long NHS waiting lists (just ask me – I have been waiting 16 months so far to see an ENT doctor for my ears). Slowly, British governments are starting to see how health is connected to so many other issues. Under Theresa May's government, social care was brought into the Department of Health – after understanding that keeping beds in hospital for people who should be cared for elsewhere was not helpful for the NHS. If poor health is having this much of a drag on the economy, perhaps that thinking could go even further. Want this in your inbox each weekday? You can sign up here. |
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