Saturday, September 28, 2024

Regional war

Bloomberg Weekend Reading

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed at the United Nations that Israel would press ahead with its attacks on Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed militant group, inside Lebanon. On Friday, Netanyahu's forces bombed what they said was Hezbollah's Beirut headquarters inside a densely packed neighborhood, the heaviest attack on the Lebanese capital in almost two decades and a major escalation of a broader conflict tied to the war with Hamas in Gaza. The target, Israel said, was Hassan Nasrallah, the group's leader. "Israel has every right to remove this threat," Netanyahu said of Hezbollah during a frosty reception at the United Nations on Friday. On Saturday, Israel said it had killed Nasrallah, but Hezbollah hasn't confirmed the claim.

Benjamin Netanyahu before the United Nations General Assembly in New York Photographer: Jeenah Moon/Bloomberg

Hezbollah rockets have forced evacuation of parts of Israel's north, and Israel said it began its most recent bombing campaign to allow Israelis to return home. Some 700 people in Lebanon have been killed since the first major strikes earlier this week. The conflict took a decisive turn after a deadly attack—widely believed to be by Israel—in which thousands of pagers and walkie-talkies owned primarily by Hezbollah members exploded. Since then, US officials had worked with European allies and Arab powers on a three-week cease-fire between Israel and Hezbollah—a better-armed and more formidable foe than Hamas. As with proposed cease fires in Gaza, Netanyahu ultimately rejected it. The consequences of Netanyahu's decision to open another front in Lebanon could come to him from many sides. Iran could repeat, with more force, its April barrage of drones and missiles, most of which were shot down by the US military. Already strained relations with the Biden administration, which provides Israel with billions of dollars in weapons, may worsen. So far, Israel appears intent on pushing Hezbollah back without sending in ground troops. But fears of all-out regional war may nevertheless be realized if Iran is drawn directly into the fight—which seems more likely if Nasrallah is in fact dead.

What you'll want to read this weekend

Fed watchers will get more of a clue into monetary policy with the September jobs report next week. Too much job growth might encourage Federal Reserve policymakers to wait a bit more before dropping interest rates again, while an anemic print would revive concerns the central bank waited too long. The US post-pandemic economic growth was revised higher, however, fueled by consumer spending on the back of robust incomes. And while income growth was a factor in lingering inflation, a new hot spot has potentially emerged. US dockworkers at East Coast and Gulf ports are poised to walk off the job without a new contract starting Oct. 1, a move that would ripple through supply chains and the wider economy. 

China ramped up efforts to revive growth with pledges to support fiscal spending and stabilize the beleaguered property sector in a boost to newly unveiled stimulus measures aimed at arresting a slowdown in the world's second-largest economy. The measures include a cut to the interest rate charged on its one-year policy loans, a drop in minimum property down-payments, a cash handout and a recapitalization plan for China's banks. The imminent weeklong National Day break is adding pressure to boost public sentiment about the economic outlook. 

The US presidential race remains exceedingly tight but Kamala Harris is now leading Donald Trump by an average of 3 points in the seven key battleground states, a Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll finds, and has all but neutralized the former president's advantage on economic issues. Not surprisingly, the campaign is unfolding most furiously online: Right-wing billionaire Elon Musk's political action committee is running a 15-second Trump ads aimed at young men. Harris inherited an ambitious but stalled meme campaign from President Joe Biden and is making it work. As the candidates bear down on the swing states, they're promising a lot—in Trump's case a flood tax breaks, all of which would have to be passed by an almost evenly split Congress. The race is showing that every person counts: In Nebraska, State Senator Mike McDonnell, a Republican, stood against his party for a change in how the state's electoral votes are divvied up that would have benefited Trump.

New York City Mayor Eric Adams has no intention of leaving office quietly: He's hunkering down and even hired Musk's lawyer to fend off charges of years of sustained corruption. He was indicted by a federal grand jury in Manhattan of accepting more than $100,000 in lavish perks from foreign nationals and of secretly accepting illegal contributions to his 2021 campaign. Adams, 64, a former member of the New York Police Department, called the charges "entirely false, based on lies" and said he would not resign despite rising calls to do so. But his administration is in shambles, with senior officials from the police commissioner, Edward Caban (who is tied to another federal investigation) to the schools chancellor to the city's lawyer all resigning recently.

Wildfires are scorching unprecedented amounts of American acreage. As more barren soil is exposed, there's more opportunity for invasive plants to take hold, making wildfires more likely and accelerating a vicious cycle fueled by global warming. While a small industry is trying to stem the damage by planting native species, it's struggling just as private equity joins in. Then there's the other end of the technological spectrum: quantum computing and the global race for supremacy. On this week's episode of The Future with Hannah Fry, Fry explores the inner workings of IBM's new Quantum System Two, one of the most powerful new computers in the world. 

Photographer: Sven Hoppe/Getty Images

What you'll need to know next week

  • Tim Walz and James "JD" Vance face off in vice presidential debate.
  • UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer in Brussels; Tory party conference.
  • China's Golden Week holidays with consumer spending at issue.
  • Fed Chair Powell remarks at NABE as Fed's next move pondered.
  • Austria elections, far-right Freedom Party forecast to win most seats.

Why the 'Golden Visa' May Be on Borrowed Time

In a world filled with geopolitical uncertainty, an escape hatch has an enduring appeal. For those with means, the so-called golden visa—a citizenship by investment program, technically—has almost unlimited upside. But political pressure to end or overhaul such programs has increased in recent years. In this Bloomberg Originals mini-documentary, we examine changes instituted by Portugal, in which funds must be invested locally rather than just used to buy real estate.

Outside a tourist store in the Alfama old quarter of Lisbon, Portugal Photographer: Mario Proenca

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