Tuesday, September 3, 2024

Reeves's Winter's Tale

The Readout with Julian Harris

"She's terribly worried that she won't be able to keep the house warm this winter," reported my mother last week through a furrowed brow, after returning from a trip to see a friend. 

As a heartless and hardnosed millennial, I replied that such an eventuality should not be possible, because Labour's cut to the winter fuel allowance was to be means tested.

"Yes but she doesn't claim pensions credit — she's too proud," came the reply, to which it's possible that I regressed into full Kevin the Teenager mode and muttered something along the lines of: "Well, maybe she should."

Little did I know that we were playing out a near preview of today's scenes in Parliament as Rachel Reeves tried to fend off intense criticism of the policy from opposition parties and some pointed questions from her own  Labour backbenches.

Charities and other pressure groups are also complaining to the chancellor, who, for now, is standing her ground. She needs to find billions of pounds in savings ahead of her October budget.

Rachel Reeves Photographer: Hollie Adams/Bloomberg

The divisive winter fuel allowance cut is far from the only thing threatening to keep Reeves awake at night. Businesses have been spooked by the prospect of sharp tax hikes and are still concerned about Labour's plans to bolster workers' rights. A group of CEOs visited Downing Street today for what No. 10 described as a "positive" discussion on the matter.

Positive or not, it is still hard to see how business chiefs and trade union bosses all come out of this with smiles on their faces. The danger for Labour is that both sides feel they've lost.

The party experienced something similar today as its decision to suspend about 30 arms licences to Israel triggered anger from senior British Jews and Labour's pro-Palestinian Members of Parliament alike.

Welcome to government, some might say.

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Swings and roundabouts

In yesterday's Readout, Allegra wrote about Labour's nervous relationship with the bond market. She quoted our colleague Marcus Ashworth, who noted that Keir Starmer's government, since coming to power, was having to pay more on government borrowings.

Today, there is better news — or at least a sign that the market is working in the fundamental way in which markets are supposed to work. The higher yield on gilts (UK government bonds) attracted record demand in a sale of notes that pulled in more than £110 billion for the public purse.

Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves Photographer: Justin Tallis/AFP/Getty Images

On the one side, there are still worries about the UK's growing debts, intense spending pressures, and the supply of bonds from the Bank of England reversing years of quantitative easing. These can push bond prices down.

On the other side, there is relief at the Labour government's fiscal prudence (at least in rhetoric, so far) and the fact that growth has, somehow, surprised on the upside. These can, absent of other changing variables, push bond prices up.

So there are swings and there are roundabouts. Thankfully I don't get paid to trade on this stuff.

The big number 

14 million
The estimated number of people expected to seek tickets to Oasis's reunion tour, according to reports.

China targets Europe's electric cars blunder

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Photographer: Sean Gallup/Getty Images

Volkswagen is considering factory closures in Germany for the first time in its 87-year history, parting with tradition and risking a feud with unions in a step that reflects the deep woes hitting Europe's auto industry.

After years of ignoring overcapacity and slumping competitiveness, the German auto giant's moves are likely to kick off a broader reckoning in the industry. The reasons are clear: Europe's efforts to compete with Chinese rivals and Tesla in electric cars are faltering.

Read The Big Take.

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