Tuesday, September 24, 2024

Next Africa: Biggest economy rebounds

Welcome to Next Africa, a twice-weekly newsletter on where the continent stands now — and where it's headed. Sign up here to have it deliver

Welcome to Next Africa, a twice-weekly newsletter on where the continent stands now — and where it's headed. Sign up here to have it delivered to your email.

Africa's biggest economy may finally be on the mend. 

The formation of a business-friendly governing coalition in June after the African National Congress's humbling at the polls has been followed by a string of investment from multinationals including Anglo American and Qatar Airways. ArcelorMittal has halted plans to close steel mills that support 80,000 jobs. 

The rand, stocks and government bonds have rallied and CEOs are enthused by the cordial relations with the government as well as pledges to allow the private sector to help run the country's struggling ports and freight-rail network.

They hope that South Africa is finally putting the impact of the corruption-stained rule of former president Jacob Zuma behind it. During that era, officials ran power plants into the ground and deprived logistics networks of investment to the extent that they've now come close to collapse.

A container ship docked at South Africa's Port of Cape Town in May. Photographer: Dwayne Senior/Bloomberg

But while the positive sentiment is welcome, it's increasingly becoming evident that there's no quick fix. 

Rail tonnages, key to how much foreign exchange the nation's commodity exports generate, are a third lower than in 2018 and extortion scams regularly disrupt construction projects. Many of government's most competent professionals have left for the private sector and are not interested in returning. 

Added to that, most of the country's municipalities — including those of its biggest city of Johannesburg and capital, Pretoria — are struggling to provide basic services essential for businesses to run profitably. 

Still, it appears to be on the road to recovery. 

But there's a mountain to climb.

Key stories and opinion:  
South Africa's Coalition Government Triggers Wave of Investment
South Africa Says Rail Firms' Poor Performance Costs Jobs
South Africa Revival Needs Reform Jumpstart, Business Lobby Says
FirstRand Banks on South Africa as It Sits on Excess Capital
Morgan Stanley Tips South African Stocks to Beat Cash and Bonds

News Roundup

Somalia's federal government condemned an unauthorized shipment of arms and ammunition from Ethiopia to Puntland State, calling it a violation of the country's sovereignty and a threat to both national and regional security. The tensions between Somalia and Puntland, one of Somalia's five federal states, have escalated since Puntland President Said Abdullahi Deni lost his bid for the federal presidency in 2022.

The start of gasoline production at Nigerian billionaire Aliko Dangote's mega oil refinery earlier this month finally spurred Africa's top crude producer to move toward ending a fuel subsidy that costs the country billions of dollars annually and crippled it economically. The removal of subsidies "is totally dependent on the government, not on us," Dangote said in an interview on Bloomberg TV. "We have to make a profit. We built something worth $20 billion so definitely we have to make money."

Zambian mining companies met with the government to resolve differences over a proposed legal change that would potentially give the state a bigger share of its mineral resources. Draft legislation under consideration in the country's parliament would enable Zambia to "acquire mining rights for investment by government." That plan is opposed by the Zambia Chamber of Mines, whose members include units of First Quantum Minerals and Barrick Gold. Meanwhile, President Hakainde Hichilema  suspended three Constitutional Court judges with immediate effect, his office announced Monday, without providing reasons. 

Chinese miners Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt and Tsingshan Holding Group are defying low lithium prices to develop a deposit of the battery metal with a Zimbabwean state company. The two firms already operate lithium projects in the southern African country and will complete a study before building a mine and processing plant at Sandawana, in the country's south, according to the chief executive officer of Kuvimba Mining House, the state-owned firm that owns the asset. Kuvimba had announced the deal in July, without naming the partners.

Hundreds of ships have been sailing under the flag of Eswatini without the African country's permission to do so. A large number of vessels have been noted as sailing under the African country's flag, Eswatini's government said in a letter to the International Maritime Organization, shipping's global regulator. That's despite the kingdom — formerly known as Swaziland — not yet giving permission to any company or agency to register ships to sail under its flag on the high seas.

A group of lawyers in South Sudan are challenging the government's decision to postpone elections for two years that were due in December, a move they say is unconstitutional. South Sudan deferred the ballot on Sept. 13, drawing a sharp rebuke from donor countries that said the nation's leaders had failed to create the conditions necessary to hold credible, peaceful and inclusive elections by the end of the year.

Thank you for your responses to our weekly Next Africa Quiz and congratulations to Dennis Aribido, who was the first to name Zimbabwe as the African country planning to proceed with a rare elephant cull, targeting 200 of the animals to help feed people affected by drought.

Chart of the Week

They study the planet's deadliest diseases in remote, conflict-prone areas in countries with the lowest health spending and fewest resources, yet the world relies on them to stop the next pandemic.  Meet eight Africa-based scientists and doctors using cutting-edge genomic tools, data-sharing platforms and shoe-leather epidemiology to identify, track, and counter the spread of emerging pathogens on a continent that's spawned some of humanity's most devastating diseases — yellow fever, HIV, Ebola, and Lassa among them.

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