Tuesday, September 17, 2024

In Singapore, seeking new narrative

The buzz around Token2049 in Singapore

Muyao Shen wonders if Token2049 in Singapore will produce crypto's next big narrative, or just more of the same.  

Narrative depletion

Welcome to the time of year when the entire crypto industry is descending on Singapore, the garden city of Southeast Asia, for the Token2049 conference. Like other big events in the digital-asset industry, it's safe to expect some wild anecdotes will emerge. After all, this is the crypto industry, where there is always a bull market in wild anecdotes.

While crypto has long had a love affair with conferences, this year the hype in Singapore has reached a fever pitch. Yet outside of the parties, lavish dinners, and karaoke sessions, the industry is grappling with one pressing question: What's the next big narrative?

Crypto thrives on narratives. In fact, the stories being told tend to drive the market more than any actual technological breakthroughs. Three years ago, the buzz was around TerraUSD, an algorithmic stablecoin that promised a decentralized economy free from outside intervention. Two years ago, it was FTX and its empire aiming to disrupt global finance. Neither narrative ended well. But at the time, the stories were intriguing. Money flowed in, and prices soared.

Yet fresh narratives are hard to come by these days, and one sign of desperation for new plotlines is the recycling of old ones. Lately, there's renewed chatter around decentralized physical infrastructure networks, or DePINs, an effort to use blockchains to decentralize ownership of pieces of real-world infrastructure. Many are touting this sector as the next big thing, but similar ideas were hyped years ago by projects like Helium's efforts to create a decentralized wireless communications network.

The industry has also reignited discussions about blockchain-based games, but none of them have reached the heights of interest that Axie Infinity once enjoyed, despite its controversies. There are also attempts to connect crypto with artificial intelligence, which remains a hot sector today.

Source: @GwartyGwart

Tekin Salimi, the founder of crypto investment fund dao5, pointed out that recycling old narratives is not uncommon in crypto.

"In a lot of cycles, narratives do get recycled in some unique form," Salimi said. "And each generation gets a little bit better."

Salimi, like many in the industry, is looking to the upcoming presidential election in the US, where the industry finally got its first crypto friendly presidential candidate with Donald Trump, as the biggest factor for the future.

"Everyone's focused on the election," he said. "It feels like so much of the future of crypto for the next four years is tied to macro. And the future of macro is very different under a Trump presidency and a Kamala Harris presidency."

Trump and his family have also caused quite a stir by getting involved in a project called World Liberty Financial, which is supposed to be part of the decentralized-finance sector in crypto. (And yes, this project will have a token.) An X Spaces livestream on Monday about it attracted more than 60,000 participants, yet it's unclear that project will produce an innovative storyline for the industry.

Crypto has had a strong start to the year: the historic approval and launch of ETFs that directly invest in Bitcoin and Ether in the U.S., Bitcoin hitting a new all-time high, and the potential of a U.S. president friendly to crypto. There are few excuses left for the industry not to deliver on its promises to change the world.

Yet while the parties rage on in Singapore, good luck to those trying to uncover the next groundbreaking crypto project. It's about time the industry finds its next big thing, but it's just not clear if it will.

Counting it out

$1.1 billion
The size of MicroStrategy's latest Bitcoin purchase, its largest acquisition of the cryptocurrency in more than three years. 

Hearing them out

"If you do this right, who f---ing cares if it goes to zero?"
Chase Herro
The dealmaker behind Donald Trump's crypto project
A quote from an old video related to his crypto-trading group, the Watchers. Herro worked with the Trump family to create World Liberty Financial. 

What we're reading (and writing)

What we're watching

Metafide CEO Frank Speiser discusses former President Donald Trump's crypto plans and what's next for Bitcoin on Bloomberg Crypto.

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