Friday, September 20, 2024

Everything is going wrong for Germany

Germany is facing tough times

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A bridge over the River Elbe in central Dresden collapsed without warning this month, causing no injuries but disrupting a main transport artery in the eastern German city.

It could pass for a symbol of the malaise at the heart of the country.

Yesterday Mercedes-Benz became the latest German icon to disappoint, slashing its outlook.

The gloomy forecast follows grim news from BMW and Volkswagen, as the nation's carmakers stagger under competition from China and the transition to electric vehicles.

The auto industry's woes add to warning signs for the world's third-largest economy, already struggling to escape prolonged stagnation.

Early in its term, Chancellor Olaf Scholz's three-way coalition made what looked to be astute bets on future-proofing the economy, waving huge subsidies to attract an Intel semiconductor "megafab" and a Northvolt battery plant, after Tesla opened its only European car factory in Germany in 2022.

All are now in trouble: Tesla has shed workers as EVs sit unsold; Intel this week postponed its plans; Northvolt is in financial difficulty.

Industrial giants like BASF are, meanwhile, burdened by high energy costs due to Russia's war on Ukraine that make Germany increasingly uncompetitive.

Against that backdrop, the government investigating its bungled sale of a stake in Commerzbank seems almost run of the mill.

It's a formidable set of challenges that's seen voters turn on the coalition parties, and is likely to contribute to another strong result for the far-right AfD party in Sunday's state election in Brandenburg.

For all that, Scholz's political fortunes looked up this week. 

Well ahead in national polls, the main opposition CDU/CSU installed Friedrich Merz as their candidate for chancellor in the federal election one year from now. Of the three possible choices, he's seen as the least appealing to voters.

If you're Scholz, you've got to look for upsides wherever you can find them.  

The collapsed Carola Bridge in Dresden, Germany. Photographer: Jens Schlueter/Getty Images

Global Must Reads

Vice President Kamala Harris is making a virtue out of ambiguity. With early balloting starting in the presidential election against Donald Trump, she's deliberately avoiding being tied to policy specifics to avert infighting in her Democratic Party and to appeal to as broad a section of swing voters as possible. Josh Wingrove, Karen Breslau and Akayla Gardner write that Harris says she's building a movement; if it's to become a revolution, she still has many people to convince.

WATCH: Harris discussed her candidacy and policies with Oprah Winfrey in a live-streamed "Unite for America" town hall event in Michigan yesterday. 

Israeli air assaults and missile attacks by Hezbollah yesterday marked one of the heaviest exchanges between the two since the war in Gaza broke out last October. They came after thousands of pagers and other devices exploded in Lebanon this week, killing at least 37 people, including two children, and injuring about 2,300 more. Allegedly the work of Israel, it marked a new and deadly escalation in the use of supply chains against adversaries.

China is considering removing some of the largest remaining restrictions on home purchases after previous measures failed to revive a moribund housing market, sources say. Policymakers are under renewed pressure to reverse a slump that is stifling the world's second-largest economy and putting millions of people out of work.

As Sri Lankans go to the polls this weekend for their first election since the nation defaulted on sovereign debt in 2022, round-the-clock construction off the coast of the capital hints at the influence of the US-China rivalry. The Colombo West International Terminal expanding the city's main port is one of Washington's biggest investments in the region, aimed at prying away the island nation from China, which has pumped billions of dollars into infrastructure projects across Asia and Africa.

Brazil's Supreme Court ordered Elon Musk's X to restore a block on its site in the country or face fines of 5 million reais ($922,000) a day after it evaded restrictions through a software update. Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes banned X last month after its billionaire owner refused to remove certain accounts and name a legal representative for the social media network in Latin America's largest nation. An X spokesperson said the platform would soon be inaccessible again in Brazil.

Tidal action on the underside of the Thwaites Glacier in the Antarctic will "inexorably" accelerate melting this century, research by British and American scientists shows. That could destabilize the entire West Antarctic Ice sheet, leading to its eventual collapse and impacting rising sea levels.

Taiwan said it would recognize same-sex marriages between Chinese and Taiwanese people, a move that could benefit hundreds of couples in the democratically run archipelago.

A plan to bring electricity to 300 million Africans by 2030, backed by an initial pledge of $30 billion from the World Bank and the African Development Bank, has begun to be implemented with an assessment of the first potential beneficiaries.

Malaysia's king is planning to seek funding from Chinese investors for a multibillion-dollar high-speed rail project between the Southeast Asian country and Singapore, sources say.

Washington Dispatch

Trump said Jewish voters could be to blame if he loses the election to Harris and complained that he had not "been treated right" after his support of Israel.

Speaking at an antisemitism summit hosted by Republican donor Miriam Adelson yesterday and later at an event held by the Israeli American Council, the former president suggested Israel's very existence could hinge on the election. "If I don't win, I believe Israel will be eradicated," he said.

Amy Spitalnick, chief executive officer of the Jewish Council for Public Affairs, criticized the remarks.

"Trump continues to label Jews who don't support him as disloyal and crazy, to play into dangerous dual loyalty tropes, and to blame Jews for a potential electoral loss," she said. "At the same time, he continues to normalize antisemitic extremism."

One thing to watch today: President Joe Biden will meet with Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese in Wilmington, Delaware.

Sign up for the Washington Edition newsletter for more from the US capital and watch Balance of Power at 1 and 5 p.m. ET weekdays on Bloomberg Television.

Chart of the Day

Methane releases from some of the world's major fossil fuel hubs are continuing to rise, though at a slower rate, as key polluters make little progress on pledges to curb the potent greenhouse gas. Emissions across 13 large basins in nine countries increased 7% last year from 2020 levels, according to a report yesterday from researcher Kayrros SAS, which assessed satellite observations.

And Finally

Most urban dwellers consider flies a nuisance and use screens, swatters and traps to keep them in check. But in the Mukuru area of Nairobi, Kenya's capital, they're being cultivated for a surprising purpose: to help tame increasingly destructive flash floods that can be intensified by heaps of garbage that block storm drains and natural waterways. A greenhouse-like facility is breeding tens of millions of black soldier flies to feed on tons of rubbish brought in from around the neighborhood.

Breeding black soldier flies.  Photographer: Kang-Chun Cheng/Bloomberg

Pop quiz (no cheating!). Which pop star did Trump say on Sunday he hates? Send your answers to balancepower@bloomberg.net.

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