| I'm Jarrell Dillard, an economics reporter in Washington. Today we're looking at the US jobs report. Send us feedback and tips to ecodaily@bloomberg.net or get in touch on X via @economics. And if you aren't yet signed up to receive this newsletter, you can do so here. When was the last time you heard an American say they're more concerned about jobs than high prices? That was probably sometime in 2020, when the country was in the depths of the pandemic recession. But that's exactly how Ashley Turner feels after applying to almost 200 positions in vain. In an interview last week, Turner, who lives in Houston, said she is more concerned about the job market than inflation. And so are investors ahead of the monthly employment report due Friday. Over the past three months, two-year Treasury yields — the ones most sensitive to Federal Reserve policy — moved nearly three times more after employment data releases than consumer-price index releases. Wall Street is hoping the August employment data will help answer two major questions: - By how much will the Fed cut rates this month?
- Is the US headed toward a recession?
The topic of recession reared back up last month after July's unemployment rose for a fourth month and triggered the so-called Sahm Rule recession indicator. Economists, including Claudia Sahm herself, have argued that this post-pandemic labor market might be different and the rule may not apply. But regardless, the unemployment rate has become a number to watch again after years of hovering near all-time lows. Right now economists are expecting that August's rate ticked down from July — but they were wrong last time. - China's services activity expanded less than expected, a private survey showed, adding to worries over the economy's health.
- Japan's ministries have set a new record with their budget requests for the year starting April 2025.
- Ukrainian officials are expecting the IMF to push it to devalue its currency faster, cut rates and strengthen its tax-raising efforts.
- Brazil's economic growth picked up much more than expected in the second quarter, powered by strong consumer spending.
- Chile's central bank cut its benchmark rate by a quarter-point, playing down the risks of sustained inflation.
- Australia's economic weakness persisted in the three months through June as consumers hunkered down.
During the spring 2023 US regional banking crisis, policymakers underscored their interest in preserving the nation's swath of smaller banks, saying these lenders were an important component of the provision of credit. New Federal Reserve research shows just how important it is for banks to be close to their customers. A trio of economists looked at the impact of a 20% decline in the number of commercial bank branches in the US since 2010. "Our analysis suggests that bank branch closures have a significant effect on local economic activity through small business credit access," Ben Ranish, Andrea Stella and Jeffery Zhang wrote in their recent paper.  Source: Ben Ranish, Andrea Stella and Jeffery Zhang "We show that small business employment grows more slowly in the five years following nearby branch closures and that the entry rate of small businesses declines," they wrote. "This suggests that there are limits to the extent that small businesses can substitute for broken relationship-based lending opportunities by going to another bank or a nonbank lender." | 
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