Thursday, September 5, 2024

China’s sway in Africa

China woos African leaders

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When it comes to whether China or the West wields the most influence in Africa, it's not much of a contest.

The parade of leaders meeting with Xi Jinping for the ninth Forum on China–Africa Cooperation illustrates Beijing's position as the dominant foreign economic player on the continent. They include Nigeria's Bola Tinubu, South Africa's Cyril Ramaphosa, and Kenya's William Ruto, among others.

Xi today pledged $50 billion in financial support to Africa over the next three years and signaled closer military cooperation. China will also exempt import tariffs from 33 of Africa's poorest nations and expand access to the world's second-largest economy.

Yet it's not all positive news. Chinese lending has come under scrutiny as a wave of debt distress swept Africa in recent years, and three countries defaulted in part because of massive loans from Beijing.

Now Xi — facing his own economic woes at home — has changed the terms. Instead of the sovereign-to-sovereign loans that China used to build roads, bridges and dams across Africa, Beijing is looking at additional straight business relationships that offer bigger financial returns and less risk of blowback if things go wrong.

The new model will see Chinese firms and banks act in commercial capacities, building infrastructure tied to specific revenue-generating projects, such as the $1 billion deal signed yesterday to resurrect a Mao-era railway line in Zambia's copper belt.

The conclave that opened today illustrates Beijing's efforts to build influence across the Global South as part of its drive to challenge the US-led world order.

The attention the big powers pay to Africa tells its own story. Xi has traveled to the continent five times since taking power — no American president has visited Africa since Barack Obama almost a decade ago.

Even US officials concede that when African nations need large-scale investments, their first stop will probably be China. 

WATCH: Xi says "China-Africa relations are now at their best period in history."

Global Must Reads

Russia prefers US Vice President Kamala Harris in November's presidential election because she's been endorsed by President Joe Biden, Vladimir Putin said today. "Biden was our favorite but he dropped out of the race," the Russian president said at the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok. His remark came a day after the Biden administration said Russia-backed entities pursued a sprawling, yearslong operation to meddle in the vote

In the weeks since a student-led protest movement in Bangladesh toppled Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's government, discontent with India, her biggest ally in the region, has bubbled to the surface. It adds to a growing list of security worries for Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, including a new pro-China government in the Maldives, a spike in militant attacks in Pakistan and a long-running border standoff with China.

Students protest next to a defaced mural of Hasina in Dhaka on Aug. 12. Photographer: Luis Tato/AFP/Getty Images

Biden is preparing to block Nippon Steel's $14.1 billion takeover of United States Steel, sources say, while the American company said it would pursue all avenues to ensure the sale is completed, warning that thousands of jobs would be at risk without it. The proposed acquisition by the Japanese corporation has touched off an election-year firestorm in the crucial swing state of Pennsylvania, where US Steel and the United Steelworkers union that opposes the deal are both based.

Western companies that exited Russia immediately after Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine suffered big losses. Two years later, it's clear that was as good as it got, according to Punishing Putin, a new book by Bloomberg's Stephanie Baker. Others waited to find the right buyer to try to extract more value, a calculation that in some cases proved more costly than a quick exit.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says he wants to control food distribution in Gaza needed to deal with the humanitarian crisis that followed his forces' invasion of the enclave after Hamas' attack on Israel on Oct. 7. Yet any direct involvement by the Israeli army in providing aid to Palestinians would risk angering some of his far-right coalition partners, who oppose letting supplies into Gaza.

Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim praised Putin during a visit to Russia today, the latest Asian leader to meet with the president in defiance of Western sanctions.

Australia released options for mandatory guardrails for high-risk research and development of artificial intelligence, including establishing "meaningful" human oversight and ensuring any AI-created content is clearly labeled.

South Africa's new multiparty government should implement bold reforms to achieve the economy's full potential, the International Monetary Fund said.

Washington Dispatch

Liz Cheney, a Republican who became a hero to many Democrats when she sacrificed her political career to defy Donald Trump, says she'll vote for Harris in the November election.

Cheney's falling out with her party began not long after the Jan. 6, 2021, assault on the US Capitol when she, along with nine other Republicans, voted to impeach Trump over accusations that he incited the insurrection. That led to her ouster from the House Republican leadership.

The daughter of former Vice President Dick Cheney persevered, becoming vice chair of the House committee that investigated Jan. 6 and Trump's efforts to overturn the result of the 2020 election. In 2022, she lost her seat in Wyoming to a primary opponent backed by Trump.

"As a conservative and someone who believes in and cares deeply about the Constitution, I have thought deeply about this. And because of the danger that Donald Trump poses — not only am I not voting for Donald Trump, but I will be voting for Kamala Harris," Cheney said yesterday at an event at Duke University in North Carolina.

One person to watch today: Trump plans to address the Economic Club of New York.

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Chart of the Day

The necessity of reaching net zero — the point at which human civilization no longer emits greenhouse gases or removes from the atmosphere the small amount we still do — has been hard for humankind to accept. It was only during last year's United Nations Climate Change Conference that world leaders acknowledged for the first time in writing that a livable Earth requires "transitioning away from fossil fuels." The question of how quickly to act on climate change, or even whether we need to, has proved politically polarizing.

And Finally

Germany is confronting the most symbolic moment yet in its tale of industrial decline, with its biggest manufacturer threatening to cross the Rubicon of factory closures in its domestic market. Volkswagen's announcement this week that it would consider shuttering some of its German car plants is more than a belated acknowledgment of commercial reality. It's a body blow to the country's self image as an automotive powerhouse and an economy that was the world's biggest exporter earlier this century.

A union banner with a slogan reading "Our Plant, Our Region, Our Future" outside the VW factory in Zwickau. Photographer: Iona Dutz/Bloomberg

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