| This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, a scepter'd cliché of Bloomberg Opinion's opinions. On Sundays, we look at the major themes of the week past and how they will define the week ahead. Sign up for the daily newsletter here. It's been said that Britain and America are two nations separated by a common language. But who exactly said it? If you trust Google Search, you'll probably come up with Winston Churchill, which is almost certainly wrong. I've just finished his six-volume history of World War II, and the closest he gets is, "The enjoyment of a common language was of course a supreme advantage in all British and American discussions." (He relates a meeting in which he proposed to "table" a matter, which to the Brits meant put it on the table, but to the Americans meant to bury it under.) Other suspects include George Bernard Shaw, Dylan Thomas and (with a more elaborate construction, naturally) Oscar Wilde in an 1887 short story called The Canterville Ghost: "We have really everything in common with America nowadays, except, of course, language." If you read Bloomberg Opinion this week, however, you might feel that the Mother Country and its former colony are ending their 250-year separation. The points of convergence, unfortunately, are: soaring debt, bad health, poor education, ineffective government and, to borrow another cliché (from Dean Acheson), an inability to find a role in the world. Let's start with the scepter'd isle. (Sorry, loading up on the clichés this morning.) "The idea that Britain is a sick society is no longer an idle metaphor," writes Adrian Wooldridge. "The British are not only sicker, on average, than the inhabitants of most rich countries; they are also in danger of becoming sicker than their parents: The improvement in life expectancy that began with the industrial revolution 200 years ago is now grinding to a halt … The number of alcohol-related deaths in the UK has risen by 30% since 2019." Can't Labour, the party whose greatest legacy is the National Health Service, turn things around? "Health is too important to be left to the NHS alone," Adrian adds. Breakthroughs in alternative medicine will only get them so far:  "Britain's dismal heath record is reducing the country's productivity," adds Adrian. "For example, some 900,000 missing from the workforce compared with pre Covid trends. It is also putting mounting pressure on a widening range of institutions from schools to workplaces. In an average workplace with 25 staff, eight will have at least one long-term condition." Not one to discriminate, Adrian is a transatlantic doomsayer. "US health statistics are relatively dismal. French people can expect to live six years longer than Americans, as of 2021, and Germans 4.3 years longer," he notes in a separate column. "The proportion of Americans classified as obese has increased from 15% in 1980 to 41.9% today, the highest rate in the advanced world." For a country that depends on "raw intelligence" to drive its tech-heavy economy, America's education system comes up conspicuously short on academic metrics. "In 2022, the US ranked 34th in math proficiency on the Program for International Student Assessment (PISA) tests of 15-year-olds," writes Adrian. And higher education is no better: "Universities are beginning to look like the General Motors of the 1970s, plagued by price inflation and administrative bloat and surrendering their lead to foreign competitors." So, who is winning the race to the bottom of global esteem? Several columnists give the nod to Britain's new Labour government, which is holding its annual conference starting today. "In Keir Starmer's 100 days, the prime minister and Chancellor Rachel Reeves have unconvincingly charged the Tories with leaving behind 'the worst set of economic circumstances since the Second World War,'" writes Martin Ivens. "The unions have been given generous pay settlements with no productivity strings attached, and, without warning, Reeves has limited the universal winter-fuel payment (WFP) to pensioners. Nobody's happy, except a rump Tory opposition that can't believe its luck." Mohamed A. El-Erian concurs: "Having campaigned on the importance of strong, inclusive and sustainable prosperity, the Labour government wasted no time following its election in framing growth as a 'mission' and announcing an initial set of measures to revive the economy. Two months later, it risks losing this growth focus as the national economic narrative shifts to endless debates on individual fiscal measures." Which leads to some trickle-down degeneration. "Consumer sentiment in the UK plunged in September to a level last seen in January," Mohamed writes in a second piece. "There is mounting concern that the associated decline in households' willingness to spend risks translating into lower consumption at a time when the government is seeking to reenergize existing growth engines and create new ones."  Given that finance plays as significant a role in the UK economy as Big Tech does in America's, this is really bad: "The number of companies listed in the UK has fallen by nearly 40% from the peak in 2008 to around 1,700 with mergers and takeovers pushing that number down every day," writes Merryn Somerset Webb. Small wonder why: "The regulatory burden is high. Liquidity is appalling – who wants to get in if they aren't sure they can get out? It is expensive – think the second-highest level of stamp duty in the world. And for whatever reason (the compounding of those stamp duties, Brexit, lack of growth, regulation.. take your pick) the valuation gap is huge." Companies aren't the only ones fleeing. Labour has plans to take away tax advantages long enjoyed by the minted many who live in the UK but officially reside elsewhere. "The drumbeat of anxiety over the UK's plans to abolish its 'non-dom' regime is growing, with a succession of tax advisers and wealthy individuals warning that the change will cause an exodus of the super-rich," writes Matthew Brooker. "A survey this month showed that abolition could cost the country almost £1 billion ($1.3 billion) in lost revenue rather than the £3 billion boost initially predicted. Anecdotal evidence suggests some financiers are already heading to the more tax-friendly climes of Dubai, Switzerland or Italy." Matthew thinks such "concerns may prove overstated." Those about Starmer's start, however … Bonus Decline and Fall Reading: What's the World Got in Store? - Brandenberg, Germany, Election, Sept. 22: Germany Has Gotten More Conservative, Not More Radical — Katja Hoyer
- OPEC World Oil Outlook, Sept. 24: OPEC+ Faces a New Problem: A Texas Gas Pipeline — Javier Blas
- U. of Michigan consumer sentiment, Sept. 27: Rate Cuts Won't Quickly Ease Strain on Consumers — John Authers
This is the point where Americans can wipe the smug smiles off their faces, because things aren't looking much better on this side of the pond. (Last cliché — I promise!) "It's no longer clear what American values are even supposed to be," writes Marc Champion. Well, "debt denial" makes the list, according to Clive Crook, a Brit expatriate in America who may want to start looking at Luxembourg. "Asked how he went bankrupt, one of Ernest Hemingway's characters famously said, 'Gradually and then suddenly,'" Clive writes. "It's the same with governments. American fiscal policy is firmly on course for default – and every delay in confronting this prospect makes it harder to avoid."  National delinquency certainly won't aid Harris's debate-night pledge to have the world's most "lethal" military. "In the years ahead, America will be hard pressed to keep its arsenal from atrophying, at a time when it may need more nuclear weapons to maintain deterrence in a world in which both Russia's and China's forces rival its own," writes Hal Brands. "US conventional forces face similar problems. The Navy is sidelining 17 logistical-support ships, further straining a fleet that is already too small to handle a vexing global mission." Well, what can you expect on the Pentagon's shoestring budget of $1 trillion? While, as Adrian explained, the British may have an alcohol and tobacco problem, America faces a more toxic threat: fentanyl. An experiment in decriminalizing drugs in Oregon "not only failed to spare lives, but seemed to cost many more of them," writes Lisa Jarvis, and a new JAMA study shows why: "The insidious impact of fentanyl on a community is by now well-known. As the drug spread from the East Coast to the Southeast and Midwest until finally reaching the West Coast, it left a terrifying body count in its wake. Since 2021, more than 100,000 people in the US have died from overdoses each year." Even the good news looks bad. "After increasing in 2020 and 2021, violent crime as reported to and by police has been declining in the US. But does that truly mean violent crime — which in police statistics usually consists of homicide, rape, robbery and aggravated assault — is falling?" asks Justin Fox. "Those who actually braved the public spaces of US cities 'were 15 to 30% more likely to be robbed or assaulted.' Crime victimization was concentrated in way that made it hard for both police crime statistics and victimization surveys to fully capture what was happening." So does the fact that fewer than half of crime victims even go to the cops:  Fortunately, Americans can shelter in that last bastion of civility: political discourse. Wait, what??? Who could possibly ask if "cordiality is becoming something of a trend in the 2024 campaign?" The Bloomberg Editorial Board, that's who, and the editors make the case for optimism: "Harris struck the right note during the Sept. 10 debate. 'I believe very strongly,' she said, 'that the American people want a president who understands the importance of bringing us together,'" the Editors write. "Such words were once commonplace, indeed banal, among candidates for higher office. They now stand out amid the demagogic rancor. A return to the language of civility, however cliched or effortful, might help remind Americans that a pluralistic democracy requires finding a way to live with those who disagree with you." "Bringing us together" has a nice ring — if only the US and UK weren't being reunited through their mutual ineptitude. Notes: Please send singing nurses and feedback to Tobin Harshaw at tharshaw@bloomberg.net. | 
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