Wednesday, September 4, 2024

AMLO’s revenge on Mexican judiciary

Mexican judicial reform sparks controversy

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Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador is just one vote away from fulfilling one of his most cherished wishes: the complete overhaul of Mexico's judicial system. 

That would allow the outgoing president to hand control over the only branch of government that eluded him during his six-year term to his successor and protege, Claudia Sheinbaum. His Morena party has a lock on Congress after a landslide win in June's election.

The Supreme Court justices have reacted by going on strike. Critics argue the change endangers a young democracy.

Eradicating the judiciary's control over presidential decisions inevitably brings to mind the authoritarian regime that Mexico suffered during most of the 20th century, when the all-powerful PRI party ran the country at will. Morena, which always fought against the PRI, may end up resembling it.

And therein lies the paradox: Mexicans have flocked to support the very person who presided over the democratic backsliding.

AMLO arrives to deliver his final State of the Nation address at Zocalo Plaza in Mexico City on Sunday. Photographer: Luis Antonio Rojas/Bloomberg

AMLO has been fixated on bringing federal judges to heel for years, claiming he's trying to root out corruption in their ranks. The plan is for them to be elected by popular vote starting next year. In practice that means that the candidates that win will de facto be largely pro-Morena and politicized.

If successful, AMLO will have had his revenge on the judges who stood in his way, including the time he claimed election fraud during his presidential runs in 2006 and 2012 and the Electoral Court dismissed his challenges.

Even out of office, the quasi cult-like influence the departing leader has on the country will reverberate for generations. 

A protest against the judicial reform in Monterrey on Sunday. Photographer: Julio Cesar Aguilar/AFP/Getty Images

Global Must Reads

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba submitted his resignation today, taking the total to six cabinet ministers in two days as President Volodymyr Zelenskiy plots a broad government shuffle with the country bracing for its third winter since Russia's invasion began. "Autumn is going to be very important, and our government institutions have to be tuned to help Ukraine achieve its results," Zelenskiy said in his nightly video address.

A Russian strike today in Lviv. Source: State Emergency Service of Ukraine

Donald Trump lost his bid to transfer his New York hush-money case to federal court, a strategic setback for the former US president who has repeatedly sought to delay his Sept. 18 sentencing until after the November election. The 78-year-old billionaire faces as long as four years behind bars in the case, though a far shorter sentence or even probation is also possible.

The US Justice Department announced that it had charged six senior Hamas leaders with terrorism and conspiracy to kill Americans, days after six hostages including an Israeli-US citizen were slain in the Gaza Strip. Some of the counts are linked to Hamas' Oct. 7 assault on Israel as well as a string of other attacks over more than a decade.

The latest clashes in the tense South China Sea feature China's coast guard wielding knives and an axe, firing water cannons and ramming Philippine vessels. A new flashpoint over the Sabina Shoal, just weeks after Beijing and Manila agreed to ease tensions in another hot spot, raises the stakes for the US, which is treaty bound to help defend the Philippines from any armed attack in the South China Sea.

Elon Musk's satellite internet provider Starlink said it would comply with an order by Brazil's top court to block access to his social media network X in Latin America's largest country. Musk's feud with the judge leading the charge against disinformation may provide a political opportunity for the billionaire and his right-wing allies by citing the case as a dangerous example of state overreach.

Ukrainian officials are expecting the International Monetary Fund this week to push it to devalue its currency faster, cut interest rates and strengthen its tax-raising efforts to fill the country's budget gap, sources say.

Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim is on a two-day visit to Russia, the latest Asian leader to shrug off Western efforts to cast President Vladimir Putin as an international pariah.

The lineup for Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party leadership election on Sept. 27 grew to five today with the entry of Toshimitsu Motegi, the current LDP secretary-general.

Washington Dispatch

Vice President Kamala Harris, in a speech in New Hampshire today, will propose a 10-fold increase in the small-business tax deduction for startup costs as she and Trump clash over who can best mollify the economic angst of American voters. Her plan would increase the deduction from $5,000 to $50,000, according to an official with her campaign.

Tax policy has emerged as a front line in the contest, with both candidates offering various reforms, such as expanded child tax credits and exemptions for tipped wages from federal taxes.

The promises come with a price. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, for instance, estimates that "exempting all tip income from federal income and payroll taxes would reduce federal revenues by $150 to $250 billion over 10 years on a static basis."

One person to watch today: Trump will take part in a town hall, hosted by Sean Hannity of Fox News, in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania.

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Chart of the Day

China will start an anti-dumping probe into rapeseed imports from Canada, with trade tensions escalating after Justin Trudeau's government imposed tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles, steel and aluminum. The Asian nation is the world's second-biggest importer of the commodity, which is crushed into oil for cooking and fuel, and meal for feeding animals. China has targeted Canada before, halting shipments of canola in 2019 following the arrest of a top Huawei Technologies executive in Vancouver on an American extradition request.

And Finally

Indigenous Brazilian leader and environmentalist Chief Raoni Metuktire remembers that the Amazon rainforest was a different place, filled with trees and animals, when he was a young man. Over half a century later, a fifth of that forest has been lost, and deforestation is expected to be a major topic at next year's COP30 climate summit organized by the United Nations in Brazil. Now in his 90s, Raoni still travels the globe, meeting presidents, celebrities and business leaders, to focus a global spotlight on his homeland.

WATCH: Metuktire's experience offers a stark warning not just for the region, but for all of humanity. Photographer: Hollie Adams/Bloomberg

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