Welcome to Balance of Power, bringing you the latest in global politics. If you haven't yet, sign up here. At first glance, Israel's assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut last week would appear to have tipped the Middle East closer to war. Yet despite the rhetoric of revenge emanating from Hezbollah's main backer, Iran, a direct conflict between the Islamic Republic and Israel seems unlikely for now. That's even as Israel eliminated one of the most influential figures in Tehran's "Axis of Resistance," struck at the heart of its most important overseas militia and carried out air strikes on Beirut and southern Lebanon, leaving hundreds of people dead. A fire truck rushes to the scene of an Israeli air strike in the Haret Hreik neighborhood of Beirut's southern suburbs on Friday. Photographer: Ibrahim Amro/AFP/Getty Images Hemmed in by enemies, Israel says it needed to weaken Iran's network and stop Hezbollah rocket fire that has forced communities in its north to flee. While Iran says it's weighing a response, there are clear signals that it isn't going to act directly — and not immediately. Tehran says it will leave the counterattack to Hezbollah and other proxy groups weakened by waves of Israeli strikes — a continuation of the years-long shadow war between the adversaries. Nasrallah's death follows the killings of Hezbollah's military chief and the political head of Iran-backed Hamas, which attacked Israel on Oct. 7 from its base in Gaza, killing 1,200 people and abducting 250 others. Israel's assault in response has claimed the lives of more than 40,000 people, according to the Gaza health ministry, and reduced much of the Palestinian enclave to rubble. Supporters of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's right-wing government are crowing about a "new" Middle East after the pummeling of groups that it, like the US, designates as terrorist organizations. But both Hezbollah and Hamas are down, not out. And as Israel showed with exploding pagers in Lebanon, revenge can be years in the making. Iran is still operating through allies that can attack global shipping and target Western interests in the Middle East. Diplomatic efforts by the US and other powers to halt the violence have so far failed. The region may be teetering on the brink for some time to come.— Sylvia Westall An Iranian pro-government supporter holds a picture of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, center, during an anti-Israel demonstration. Photographer: Hossein Beris/AFP/Getty Images |
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