| By Jennifer A. Dlouhy For the first time ever, the entire US government has taken up the fight against climate change. President Joe Biden unleashed hundreds of billions of dollars toward clean energy and enacted new regulations throttling planet-warming pollution from cars, oil wells and power plants. Some of those policies were explicitly designed to be popular — winning over hearts and minds as tax breaks turned homeowners into solar enthusiasts and dollars flowed into factories, creating new jobs. The dynamic has been especially pronounced in deeply red districts where voters are more likely to be skeptical of climate change. That doesn't mean all these changes will stick. Donald Trump, the Republican nominee and former president, has campaigned on promises to end what he calls Washington's "green new scam" while abolishing regulations encouraging coal power plant closures and compelling more electric vehicle sales. Even if Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, hasn't exactly barnstormed battleground states with a climate agenda, she's sure to protect these hard-fought policies. The outcome of November's election will go a long way to deciding what happens next — but not all the way. Investors, analysts and developers whose decisions shape the American energy transition are resolute: A victorious Trump can't fully halt the country's green shift. Putting campaign rhetoric aside, it's clear that the sweeping 2022 climate law known as the Inflation Reduction Act has been built to withstand political attacks. Grant money has already gone out the door. Tax credits are now seeding factories in Republican strongholds. There's obvious potential for a slowdown, just not over everything that's changed since 2021. "The question for me is not ultimately the direction of travel — it is about the pace," said Manish Bapna, president of the NRDC Action Fund, the political arm of the Natural Resources Defense Council. "A Trump 2.0 would pull back from policies and investments and create a much more costly and disruptive transition." Here's a guide to the biggest Biden-era climate initiatives and how precarious each would be if Trump returns to the White House. We categorized efforts into three buckets: resilient, vulnerable or extremely vulnerable. Resilient IRA tax credits: Trump has promised to redirect climate funding under the Inflation Reduction Act. But scrapping the measure and its subsidies for clean energy could prove politically difficult. Roughly 90% of the capital unlocked by the law has flowed into red congressional districts, according to the clean energy advocacy group E2, and it's creating jobs and economic growth that Republicans in Washington may be loath to forgo. Climate funding: Clawing back funding for climate programs is another item on Trump's to-do list. Such a move would potentially put at risk billions of dollars in grants and other support that have been earmarked — but not yet delivered — to clean energy ventures. It's easy for a president to hit the pause button on spending that hasn't gone out the door. And billions of dollars for climate and clean energy could still be sitting in government coffers by Inauguration Day. But Biden administration officials, aware of this risk, have been working to swiftly distribute climate money, putting much of it out of a new president's reach. Vulnerable Clean tech loans: Under Biden, the Loan Programs Office inside the Energy Department has backed a host of clean energy projects. There's an option being considered by some conservatives to keep the office humming, but reorienting its work to focus on technologies tied to favored industries, such as fossil fuels, mining and nuclear power. Methane crackdown: The Biden administration has tried to pare back oil industry emissions of methane, the potent planet-warming component of natural gas. Those policies could be targets for a redo under Trump. Take the EPA rule finalized last December that forces oil companies to replace leak-prone equipment and regularly search for methane escaping from valves, compressors and other equipment. The measure has already drawn a federal court challenge from the oil industry. A Trump-run EPA could settle litigation by agreeing to rewrite the measure. Extremely vulnerable Electric cars: Trump vowed to end what he calls the "EV mandate," referring to an EPA regulation limiting tailpipe pollution. The rule is so strict it compels automakers to sell far more electric and hybrid vehicles over time, while scaling back sales of conventional combustion engine models. A second Trump administration could easily repeal and replace the rule driving this shift, putting in place more lenient standards that could be met by conventional, gas-powered cars. Offshore wind: Trump's has pronounced and often repeated hostility toward offshore wind energy, which depends on the federal government for leases and project permits. The biggest risk would extend to proposed wind projects that haven't yet won approval from the Interior Department. Trump could follow a playbook written by the Biden administration, pausing new offshore wind project approvals just as Biden halted issuing licenses to export natural gas. Power plant pollution curbs: If Trump wins the election, a ticking clock would start counting down the last hours of Biden-era regulations stifling carbon dioxide from the nation's current fleet of coal-fired power plants and many newly constructed gas units. Another such shift in pollution limits could prolong the lifespan for some coal plants that would otherwise have to shut down under the current rules. Pausing LNG export permits: Biden used executive authority to halt the approval of new licenses to widely export liquefied natural gas, and Trump has vowed to use the same power to reverse it. Beyond just reversing the pause, Trump has said that if elected he'd approve new LNG exports his first day in office. Climate diplomacy: Trump 2.0 could not only make good on his vow to abandon the Paris Agreement, but he could also pull the US out of the 32-year-old UN Framework Convention on Climate Change that underpins the entire structure of international cooperation against warming temperatures. There would be far-reaching and enduring impacts, potentially sidelining the US in climate talks for years to come. Read the full story on Bloomberg.com. | 
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