| Good morning. China's equity bull run barely registers with US stocks. Beijing eases rules for homebuyers. Google plans to invest $1 billion in Thailand. Here's what's moving markets. —Isabelle Lee Back in the emerging-market heyday, the sudden frenzy that has pushed Chinese equities to a bull run would be big news on Wall Street. Yet this time, the stock-market revival has barely registered with US traders, underlining both China's limited role as an engine for America's economy and skepticism that Beijing policymakers will be able to fix deep-seated growth woes. The lack of excitement was palpable Monday. While the CSI 300 jumped more than 8%, the S&P 500 slipped before a late-day bounce helped the markets avoid a divergence that by one measure would be the largest since the 2008 financial crisis. As the Chinese gauge surged 26% over six sessions in an unprecedented rally, the American benchmark rose by a relatively meager 1%, underscoring how traders in US assets are largely shrugging off the bullish spirit in China. Beijing became the latest of China's four so-called tier-one cities to ease rules for homebuyers, following through on the government's call to put a floor under the property market decline. The Chinese capital is easing its rules to allow non-residents to purchase homes in core residential areas within the fifth ring road when they have paid a minimum three years of social insurance or personal income tax, instead of the current threshold of five years. Beijing is also cutting minimum down payment ratios for first homes to 15%, and to 20% for second homes, while it will guide commercial banks to lower the rates of existing mortgage loans. Private credit's biggest names have raised the most investment-grade debt ever this year, at a time when they already have record levels of cash. The $1.7 trillion private credit market — dominated by the likes of Ares and Apollo — has had a stellar year. Lenders are inking multi-billion dollar partnerships with would-be competitors, bankers are leaving for lucrative private credit roles and some foreign investors are chasing direct loans with 22% yields. All of this has led a key group of private lenders, the firms known as business development companies that are often publicly traded, to sell $21.8 billion of investment-grade bonds this year. Alphabet's Google plans to invest $1 billion to build data centers in Thailand, joining tech companies in adding cloud and AI infrastructure in Southeast Asia. The company will add facilities in Bangkok and Chonburi. The outlay could help add $4 billion to Thailand's economy by 2029 and support 14,000 jobs annually over the next five years, Google said. The investment was unveiled by Google and Thailand's recently appointed prime minister, Paetongtarn Shinawatra. Google has already announced billions of dollars in investment in Malaysia and Singapore this year. It's another busy day on the economic calendar Tuesday. Traders can look to the inflation prints of Pakistan and Indonesia, which both likely decelerated further in September. Then there's the Bank of Japan's Tankan Survey, which will likely show business sentiment sagged as the yen's rebound from extreme lows dented the mood in the manufacturing sector. South Korea will report export growth, which likely slowed in September. Here's what caught our eye over the past 24 hours: - DirecTV, Dish to merge to create largest US pay-TV provider
- FOMO grips China stock buyers on trading day before break
- Italy's Meloni discussed BlackRock investments with CEO Fink
- Germany is giving up hope of achieving any growth in 2024
- Gang violence is moving to the Amazon's fast-growing cities
- Stanford, USC banned from giving preference to legacy students
- Traders strike deals for deforestation-free Coffee to Europe
SURVEY: As the $1.7 trillion private credit market keeps swelling, do you see Asia as a growing source of opportunity? Does the global easing cycle make you more likely to invest in alternative assets offered by firms such as Blackstone Inc. and Apollo Global Management Inc? Share your views in a quick MLIV Pulse survey. Ever since the Fed rate cut a couple weeks ago, global asset markets have been buoyed in the expectation of more stimulus. This week, it was China that delivered it, sending Chinese equities soaring on Monday. But the US session that followed was a downbeat affair. The US jobs report takes on more significance now to keep the stimulus going and put a 50-basis point Fed interest rate cut back in play. Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments about additional stimulus broke little new ground at a Nashville meeting of the National Association for Business Economics. But the market was clearly disappointed, as near-term yields rose on the prospect of fewer rate cuts. Powell made two statements that demonstrated the market has been pricing in more cuts than the Fed is presently willing to deliver. First, he spoke of the Fed not being in a hurry to cut rates. And while yields across the curve rose, yields on two-year Treasuries rose the most. Then Powell noted that projections show another two 25-basis point interest-rate cuts if the economy performs as expected. That seemingly rules out market expectations for a larger cut — something only likely if the labor market deteriorates more from here, as Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic noted earlier on Monday. Interest rate swaps have removed more than 10 basis points of rate cut expectations through May on the two comments. And that puts even more weight on Friday's jobs report for September. A weak report will put a 50-basis point cut back in play, causing the market to rally further. But in-line or upbeat data will cause the market to sell off, pricing out any such move. Ed Harrison writes the Everything Risk newsletter. Follow him on X at @edwardnh. | 
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