Tuesday, September 24, 2024

5 things to start your day: Europe

Good morning. Risk assets extend gains on China's stimulus. Traders see another ECB rate cut. And Peugeot is looking for new investments. He

Good morning. Risk assets extend gains on China's stimulus. Traders see another ECB rate cut. And Peugeot is looking for new investments. Here's what people are talking about.

China buoys rally

Asian stocks and currencies climbed further as China's central bank backed up Tuesday's stimulus by lowering the interest rate charged on its one-year policy loans. Industrial metals including iron ore also extended gains a day after PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng unveiled a broad package to revive the world's second-largest economy. Gold also rose. Before the latest measures, deep-pocketed Middle Eastern investors had already been deploying a record amount of capital in China as other global firms retreated. Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, known as ADIA, has been involved in an $8.3 billion deal for Dalian Wanda Group's shopping mall management unit, along with another Abu Dhabi fund, Mubadala Investment. Still, while the latest injection has bought China some time, economists believe this is just a down payment if President Xi Jinping is going to pull the roughly $18 trillion economy out of a protracted slump.

More ECB easing?

Traders are growing increasingly confident the European Central Bank will reduce rates again next month as evidence mounts the economy is weakening. Money markets imply a roughly 60% chance of a quarter-point reduction in October, up from around 20% last week. The latest leg of the repricing was driven by US data that showed consumer confidence unexpectedly fell in September. Meanwhile, ECB Governing Council member Klaas Knot said he expects gradual rate cuts "in the near future" and in the first half of next year. His remarks come after the ECB lowered borrowing costs for the second time this year, to 3.5%. And over in the US, the debate over the magnitude of the Federal Reserve's expected easing in November is intensifying, with traders ramping up wagers in futures keyed to the central bank's path as officials start to weigh in on their next move. After the US consumer confidence data, investors leaned a bit more toward a second straight half-point cut at the Nov. 7 decision. 

Peugeot on prowl

The billionaire Peugeot family is scouting for new investments and would even consider the breakup of their listed firm to get past a recent shareholder revolt and portfolio missteps. "I can confirm we are in buying mode," Sebastien Coquard, deputy chief executive officer of Peugeot Invest, said on a call about first-half results of the investment vehicle controlled by the auto dynasty. "We are working on many investments, with no rush." Industries under consideration include software and health care, he said. Peugeot Invest, which is listed in Paris and almost 80% owned by the auto clan, has come under criticism from minority shareholders about its performance and deep trading discount. In response, eighth-generation scion and Chairman Robert Peugeot has replaced the chief executive officer and is revising contracts with the family relating to royalties paid for use of the family name.

Orlopp's baptism of fire

Bettina Orlopp has been waiting in the wings for more than four years. With Commerzbank scrambling to fend off an unwelcome suitor, her rise to the top has taken a sudden and dramatic twist. The lender's supervisory board on Tuesday appointed Orlopp as the next CEO, the first woman ever in that role. The announcement came barely two weeks after CEO Manfred Knof said he wouldn't seek a new term when his current one runs out at the end of next year. That timeplan was thrown into disarray within hours, as Italian rival UniCredit took a major stake in the German lender and said it was considering a takeover. Orlopp, Commerzbank's chief financial officer, now finds herself with the task of leading the 154-year-old company through one of its biggest challenges, with its future as an independent firm at stake.

Wiz mulling sale

Cybersecurity startup Wiz Inc. is in discussions to sell existing shares at a valuation as high as $20 billion, according to people with knowledge of the matter. Wiz, which in July walked away from a deal to be bought by Alphabet's Google for $23 billion, is talking about a transaction that would let existing shareholders tender from $500 million to $700 million of their holdings, said one of the people. The valuation being discussed ranges from $15 billion to $20 billion, the person said. The company also may raise money directly from investors, one of the people said. Terms of the offering could change, and it may not come together, the people said. The New York-based startup connects to cloud storage providers such as Amazon.com's Amazon Web Services and Microsoft's Azure, and scans data stored there for security risks.

Coming up

We have a relatively light economic calendar today, including a Riksbank rate decision and US new home sales. Central bank speakers inlcude the BOE's Greene and the Fed's Kugler.

What we've been reading

This is what's caught our eye over the past 24 hours.

And finally, here's what Mark is interested in this morning:

Investors in Japanese stocks can see a bright run ahead for local markets with this week's Liberal Democratic Party leadership contest acting as a trigger for equity inflows.

The nation's next leader is likely to be one of three candidates -- each of them flawed in some way -- but all of them positive for stocks. Indeed, Sanae Takaichi, is a self-proclaimed heir to Abenomics. Whoever wins, they are likely to signal the Bank of Japan should slow the path to higher interest rates.

That's a message BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda is already taking on board. The tone of his comments this week almost ensures the October policy meeting will produce an unchanged outcome, with December starting to look like a long shot for any tightening -- which will help keep Japanese government bond yields in a narrow range and avoid a negative read across for stocks.

Meanwhile, it will hold the yen back from outperforming Asian and global peers. That said, dollar-yen may stay with a downward trajectory as Federal Reserve rate cuts, along with China's stimulus, are overwhelming bearish for the greenback.

In the near term, investors will be keeping a close watch on how offshore funds react to the LDP race. Outflows have been accelerating in recent weeks after the yen's surge, so it will be a positive signal if there is a reversal in direction to underpin equities.

Mark Cranfield is a macro strategist for Bloomberg's Markets Live team, based in Singapore.

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