Investors in Japanese stocks can see a bright run ahead for local markets with this week's Liberal Democratic Party leadership contest acting as a trigger for equity inflows. The nation's next leader is likely to be one of three candidates -- each of them flawed in some way -- but all of them positive for stocks. Indeed, Sanae Takaichi, is a self-proclaimed heir to Abenomics. Whoever wins, they are likely to signal the Bank of Japan should slow the path to higher interest rates. That's a message BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda is already taking on board. The tone of his comments this week almost ensures the October policy meeting will produce an unchanged outcome, with December starting to look like a long shot for any tightening -- which will help keep Japanese government bond yields in a narrow range and avoid a negative read across for stocks. Meanwhile, it will hold the yen back from outperforming Asian and global peers. That said, dollar-yen may stay with a downward trajectory as Federal Reserve rate cuts, along with China's stimulus, are overwhelming bearish for the greenback. In the near term, investors will be keeping a close watch on how offshore funds react to the LDP race. Outflows have been accelerating in recent weeks after the yen's surge, so it will be a positive signal if there is a reversal in direction to underpin equities. Mark Cranfield is a macro strategist for Bloomberg's Markets Live team, based in Singapore. |
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