| It was a "cracker" of a day, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese proclaimed this week in an unscripted moment with US Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell at the annual Pacific Islands summit. Albanese was referring to a new regional policing agreement between Australia and Pacific island nations, sealed just two years after China failed to secure a similar agreement of its own. Campbell, an Indo-Pacific specialist, noted that while the US previously had its own plans, it chose to let its ally "take the lane." The deal marks a tactical win for the West in what's become a vast arena of strategic competition with China. How long the momentum lasts is another question. US and Australian elections are approaching, and there's no guarantee new administrations would maintain engagement with the region at a level that keeps the West as the more attractive partner. Over in Beijing, the Communist Party leadership appears to be playing the long game. The South Pacific is already studded with Chinese infrastructure, from stadiums and police stations to ports and water pipelines. If the West is to avoid losing sway over the long run, political consensus in capitals from Canberra to Washington will need to evolve.  Australia Prime Minister Anthony Albanese Photographer: Rohan Thomson/Bloomberg At first glance, the South Pacific looks to be a remote position on the chessboard of strategic competition between the West and China. But the maritime region has economic zones of enormous dimensions, with resources such as timber and seafood that are in great demand to a Chinese economy that consumes in quantity. And it's situated between the US and its ally Australia. As a rapidly expanding Chinese navy seeks to further broaden its sphere of influence, perhaps with a future network of bases across the South Pacific, links and supply lines between the US and Australia-New Zealand could be threatened. World War II famously showcased the strategic value of the region. Japan in the 1930s administered what is now Palau, the Northern Mariana Islands, Marshall Islands and Micronesia, giving it an advanced position from which to threaten Australia itself. More recently, it is China that has turned to the South Pacific. As Beijing's influence and military power grew, many nations ceased to recognize Taiwan—the island democracy China regards as a renegade province. This was no coincidence, given Beijing's efforts to chip away at those ties, with Nauru the latest to switch in January. Today, only the Marshall Islands, Tuvalu and Palau remain with Taipei. Even so, a flap at this week's Pacific summit over language about Taiwan in a joint communique—as the Guardian reported—illustrated that broader tensions remain. It was the 2022 announcement that Beijing had signed a first-of-its-kind security agreement with the Solomon Islands that set off alarm bells in Canberra and Washington. Although no final version of the pact has been released, a draft that made the rounds suggested Chinese vessels could be stationed there—less than 2,000 kilometers (1,242 miles) off Australian shores.  Chinese President Xi Jinping, right, meets with then-Solomon Islands' Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare, left, in Beijing in 2019. Photographer: Xinhua News Agency The agreement illustrated the relative lack of attention paid to the South Pacific by the West, and in particular America, which since 1945 has taken for granted its dominance over the broader Pacific. But things changed quickly. President Joe Biden in 2022 invited Pacific leaders to the White House for an unprecedented visit, then welcomed them again in 2023. Biden went on to open new embassies and Vice President Kamala Harris addressed the 2022 Pacific Island Forum. For its part, Australia pumped up its contributions of aid and development assistance. Albanese's government also accelerated action on climate change—a vital issue for the vulnerable region—including a proposal to co-host COP31, the 2026 iteration of the United Nations' annual climate summit, with Pacific nations. Last November, Albanese signed an agreement with Tuvalu that would allow for climate refugees to come to Australia in return for greater say over that island nation's security.  US President Joe Biden, center, with Pacific Islands Forum leaders at the White House in 2023 Photographer: Ting Shen/Bloomberg But behind the scenes, Western diplomats and academics are concerned about whether all this momentum can be maintained. When Biden was forced to return to Washington last year to deal with Republicans threatening to take down the US economy, he had to cancel what would have been a historic visit to Papua New Guinea. It illustrated how, even in an internationalist-minded administration, domestic politics must come first. There's no reason to think Harris, should she win in November, wouldn't continue Biden's efforts in the Pacific. But if Donald Trump is elected, things could change quickly in China's favor. The Republican has shown scant interest in building alliances when president, which augurs ill for such prospects if he was to return to power. Meanwhile, the Pacific is hedging its bets. Just days before this week's Pacific Island Forum, Fiji's Prime Minister Sitiveni Rabuka flew to China to meet with President Xi Jinping, whose government enthusiastically endorsed the Fijian leader's policy to make the region a "zone of peace." Rabuka had been regarded as a China skeptic. But times do change. No one knows that better than the Fijian prime minister, who cautioned Australia last year not to "abandon" the Pacific. If Canberra and Washington take their eye off the ball, it indeed might be the Pacific that abandons them. —Ben Westcott Get the Bloomberg Evening Briefing: Sign up here to receive Bloomberg's flagship newsletter in your mailbox daily. Bloomberg CEO Forum: All eyes are on an Indonesia in transition. Will President-elect Prabowo Subianto follow through on his pledge to continue President Joko Widodo's policies? Can the new administration create an understanding of how and where global investment should flow? Join us Sept. 4 in Jakarta for a series of conversations on the trends, risks and opportunities facing Indonesia and the region's other economies. Register here. | 
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