Thursday, August 29, 2024

5 Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day: Asia

Good morning. Breadth returns to stocks. Dollar's losses give China's yuan relief. OpenAI funding round draws interest from Magnificent Seve

Good morning. Breadth returns to stocks. Dollar's losses give China's yuan relief. OpenAI funding round draws interest from Magnificent Seven. Here's what's moving markets. — Kristine Aquino

Breadth returns

Despite fluctuations in US stocks Thursday, one thing was clear: Breadth is back. While the S&P 500 Index lost traction later in the day and Nvidia shares continued their decline, most stocks advanced following data that showed the US economy is holding up better than expected. Energy firms, banks and industrial companies — businesses that are more sensitive to expectations for growth — were among the biggest gainers. To Bret Kenwell at eToro, the latest data helped reassure investors that the economy is "not teetering on an economic cliff."

Dollar pain 

The US economy's gain is the dollar's pain. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index headed for its biggest monthly decline this year as signs of robust growth dimmed demand for the safety of the world's reserve currency. The greenback's weakness, however, has proven beneficial for the likes of China's yuan, which has erased declines for 2024.

Cash dash 

Ahead of Federal Reserve rate cuts, expected in September, investors eager to lock in yields are piling hundreds of billions into money-market funds. Such instruments saw $127 billion of fresh inflows in August, the biggest this year. The inflows put total assets at an all-time high of $6.26 trillion, up from a previous record of $6.24 trillion in the week prior, according to Investment Company Institute data. Demand has ramped up for investors who want to take advantage of higher rates before Fed Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues start easing policy, given the funds are usually slower to pass on the effects of lower rates, compared to banks.

OpenAI funding

Nvidia has discussed joining a funding round for OpenAI that would value the artificial intelligence startup at more than $100 billion, according to people familiar with the matter. Apple and Microsoft also have been in talks about participating in the financing, said the people. The round would be led by Thrive Capital, which is investing about $1 billion, Bloomberg reported earlier this week. If the discussions move forward, it would mean the three most valuable tech companies are all backing OpenAI, maker of the groundbreaking ChatGPT chatbot. 

ASML hurdle 

ASML's ability to repair and maintain its semiconductor equipment in China is facing new constraints. The Netherlands is unlikely to renew certain licenses to service and provide spare parts in the Asian nation when they expire at the end of this year, according to people familiar with the matter. The Dutch company's chip-making equipment, the most advanced in the industry, is sold with maintenance agreements that are essential to keep them running. Withdrawing such support could render at least some of them inoperable as soon as next year. ASML and the Dutch foreign trade ministry declined to comment.

What we've been reading

Here's what caught our eye over the past 24 hours: 

And finally, here's what Seb is interested in today

Something unusual is going on. There hasn't been a day in the past five years on which Nvidia has fallen as much did on Thursday, but the rest of the Magnificent Seven have all been in the green. That looks bullish for stocks overall, which are approaching another record high.

Nvidia has been the driver of gains (and losses) in the S&P 500 since the artificial intelligence craze started. Bloomberg strategist Cameron Crise recently worked out that Nvidia has been the biggest single-stock contributor to S&P 500 returns in at least a quarter-century.

But in all the time that it has been the driver of the S&P 500 there have only been a handful of days in which it has underperformed its peers by more than it is today, and it has never fallen without pulling at least one of them down with it.

Nvidia is a volatile stock, and no stranger to steep selloffs. After all, it's very expensive. There have been 10 days this year in which it has fallen more than 5%, and one 10% loss in a single day back in April. The most recent comparable day was June 24, when Nvidia corrected as traders -- and insiders -- took profit and a triple-witching sparked losses in a popular stock. It fell 6.7% in a day, but Amazon dropped 1.9%.

Sebastian Boyd is a Santiago-based strategist who writes for Bloomberg Markets Live blog. 

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