Tuesday, July 2, 2024

The London Rush: Sweet Nectar card

Sainsbury's discounts help boost food sales.

Hi, I'm Leo from Bloomberg UK's breaking news team, catching you up on this morning's business stories.

Inflation in UK shops rarely seemed so good (so good)! Or, to be more precise, the level of price rises in stores has fallen close to zero for the first time since October 2021, according to the British Retail Consortium.

That'll be a relief to not just consumers, but also supermarkets who have fought to keep prices low. And even with the rate of price increases slowing, Sainsbury's trading update this morning shows grocers can continue to grow sales.

The supermarket's food sales rose 4.8% in the 16 weeks to June 22. This was helped by an improved range, sharper pricing and its customer loyalty programme (namely, the Nectar card). 

Not everything is rosy/orange for Sainsbury's though. Argos sales suffered from weaker much lower seasonal sales and a hit in consumer electronics, particularly gaming. Heavy rainfall (can't leave out the weather) hit demand for house and garden products. 

Shares in Britain's second-biggest grocer are down around 15% since the beginning of the year. 

What's your take? Ping me on X, LinkedIn or drop me an email at lkehnscherpe@bloomberg.net. Oh, and do subscribe to Bloomberg.com for unlimited access to trusted business journalism on the UK, and beyond.

What We're Watching

Revolut's revenue for 2023 almost doubled to £1.8 billion, with CEO Nik Storonsky saying the fintech is set for "exponential growth." The results come well ahead of a statutory deadline, a key element to finally secure a crucial UK banking licence.

Shoe Zone shares plunged over 20% after the footwear retailer issued a profit warning due to disruption around the Suez Canal that led to a significant rise in container prices.

Where the city of York used to churn out chocolate, it's now become known for a dramatically different product: university graduates. I highly recommend this read from Helen Chandler-Wilde on the financial cliff Britain's famed unis are facing. 

Election Section

It's two days until the election. Labour holds a 20.7-point lead over the Tories, according to Bloomberg's polling average.

Labour will promise to take the global lead on climate action to fill a "vacuum of leadership" on the world stage, shadow energy security secretary Ed Miliband tells The Guardian.

Labour would be looking to tighten Whitehall's control over the NHS to improve productivity and reduce waiting times for treatment, the FT reports.

Finally: With Labour having ruled out raising any of the most lucrative taxes, it left itself with few options with which to fill existing fiscal gaps. Can (and should) a wealth tax plug the hole?

Markets Today: An Air of Calm

Here's your daily snap analysis from Bloomberg UK's Markets Today blog:

There's an air of calm around UK markets as we close in on the general election, an event which is expected to deliver a politically seismic shift, but an economically stable one. But Thursday's vote isn't the finish line for markets — it's just the start.

A steady-as-she-goes outcome may give UK equities a temporary boost, but beyond that the new government will need to deliver on growth, Bloomberg's Mary Nicola argues today. 

Indeed, London-listed stocks are near a record high, but are still undervalued compared to European and US peers. The question is how Labour will achieve its arguably lofty goal of 2.5% economic expansion.

Bloomberg Economics says possibilities stem from a landslide victory which could embolden Keir Starmer to eye more radical change. The fiscal rules would need to be adjusted to make room for investment — one way to do this would be to change the debt measure or the way public borrowing is factored into the calculation. Lifting capital spending toward its more historic average as a share of GDP could deliver a boost more than six times bigger than Labour's current plans.

Morwenna Coniam

Check Bloomberg UK's Markets Today blog for updates all day.

Pub Quiz

"Pooh Corner"— a former tearoom where Winnie-the-Pooh is claimed to be first sketched — has been put up for sale. In which city is it?

Tip: "Pooh Corner" is close to the iconic Clifton Suspension Bridge. 

[Yesterday's answer: BYD stands for "Build Your Dreams".]

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