Crypto News: The London Rush: Stable government, stable housing?

Hi, I'm Leo from Bloomberg UK's breaking news team, catching you up on this morning's business stories.

Welcome to election week.

While political staffers make their final, triple-caffeine-shot-fuelled push, we've got our noses in the latest house price data — which, according to Nationwide, rose for a second month in June. It's a sign that the market is stabilising after last year's dip.

Still, Nationwide said the number of transactions are down about 15% versus 2019. Those involving a mortgage have fallen 25% while there's been a 5% increase in deals involving cash buyers.

House prices could benefit if Labour wins on Thursday, Marcus Ashworth writes in an excellent opinion piece this morning. Though (spoiler) it may take longer than a five-year parliament before house-building scales up to match population growth demand.

What's your take? Ping me on X, LinkedIn or drop me an email at lkehnscherpe@bloomberg.net. Oh, and do subscribe to Bloomberg.com for unlimited access to trusted business journalism on the UK, and beyond.

Anglo American shares dipped at the open after a fire at its biggest metallurgical coal project in Australia has halted production. The miner said it may take several months for the blaze to be extinguished.

Boots managing director Sebastian James will leave the company later this year. The move, first reported by Sky News, comes after plans of Boots owner Walgreens for a £5 billion sale or stock market listing of the UK drugstore stalled.

In other company news this morning:

Events and data firm Ascential said the sale of its Hudson MX business is proceeding, with interest through from multiple parties.
Chemicals company Croda appointed Johnson Matthey's Stephen Oxley as its chief financial officer.
Oil and gas services provider Petrofac extended a forbearance arrangement with holders of its debt to July 25.

There have been 30 firm offers with an average value of £1.05 billion for UK-listed companies so far this year — a doubling in size compared to the same period in 2023. That's according to Peel Hunt, which says the prospect of a stable government and an improving economy is "driving a sustained rally" in deal volumes.

It's three (!) days until the election. Labour holds a 21-point lead over the Tories, according to Bloomberg's polling average.

Against the backdrop of France's snap election, Keir Starmer tells the Guardian that if Labour wins, it will have to stave off a rise of the populist right, by urgently restoring faith in politics "through deeds, not words."

On defence, here's a closer look at how Starmer's long battle to convince voters he is committed to the UK's nuclear deterrent is poised to bring this Cumbrian town back into Labour's fold.

Some Tories, meanwhile, are starting to get more concerned that Nigel Farage could stage a Trump-style grassroots takeover of their party.

Here's your daily snap analysis from Bloomberg UK's Markets Today blog:

While French and European assets get a boost from the less-bad-than-feared French results this morning, it is natural to think of what might happen to the pound, gilts and stocks after the UK vote.

With polls suggesting a decisive result there's little in the way of uncertainty dogging markets right now, with a Labour win probably priced into the pound and UK bonds. Still, it would be unwise to totally rule out big moves — the potential scale of any victory is very much unknown, with tactical voting and the rise of Reform UK all potential wildcards in mapping the polls onto a final result.

There might also still be some scope for movement in individual stocks once any new government starts laying out its strategy. Joe Easton suggests suggests homebuilders, energy companies and Royal Mail could be the ones to watch.

— David Goodman

Check Bloomberg UK's Markets Today blog for updates all day.

Sainsbury's will update markets tomorrow, with investors likely zeroing in on share buyback plans after the grocer agreed to offload its banking business to NatWest.

Gene Salerno is chief investment officer at Societe Generale's UK private bank, SG Kleinwort Hambros. He started his career as a software engineer at Raytheon in Boston. I met Gene at SocGen's offices in Canary Wharf.

How do you save time? By investing more time upfront. It might annoy coworkers sometimes, but I think it's always better to take a step back and focus on the ultimate goal of a project — rather than moving too quickly.

On big days, I wear… A suit from Canali.

On my commute, I… go swimming at a Nuffield gym that lies on my way to work at around 6 a.m.

Your favourite power lunch spot? The Brasserie at our offices. It's excellent.

The best pub? I don't really go to pubs, but in Kentish Town we have a great gelateria called Caliendo's, where I go with my family on Sundays.

My worst trade was… In the late 2000s, I bought shares in a biotech company called Vical who were working on a new bird flu vaccine. It didn't work out. It taught me not to overreact to news flow.

At the start of my career, I wish someone had told me… Try to work in as many industries as possible because the "switching costs" are lower when you're young. And if you're interested in a particular role, say equity research analyst, speak candidly with people about what they actually do.

What are you reading? Going Infinite by Michael Lewis.

How do you switch off? I go on a treadmill. I like the controlled environment, it's meditative for me.

When Germany played against Denmark this weekend, Chinese EV maker BYD used the football match to flex its marketing muscle on rival VW's home turf. What does BYD stand for?

BYD's fan zone near the Reichstag in Berlin. Photographer: Jens Schlueter/Getty Images

[Friday's answer: FIFA is looking to raise as much as $2 billion to expand its free streaming service.]

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