Tuesday, July 2, 2024

The dream job is dead. Hallelujah!

Go ahead, move to Bolivia.

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Today's Agenda

POV: You Can't Find a Job

I'm not gonna sugarcoat it. The labor market is challenging for new grads, despite the recent uptick in job openings.

Consider the ratio of new hires to total employees. It's at near decade-lows. The feedback rate on job applications? Abysmal. And bots that go by "Mia with Indeed" have tricked over 100,000 people with job scams in the last year alone. Even when the job posting is real, Parmy Olson says young people are competing against the creators of "Shrimp Jesus," an AI rendering of Christ covered in crustaceans.

And the market that comes before the job market isn't any better: Internship listings are down more than 7% in 2024 and each post receives an average of 93 applications, up from 53 in 2023. If you want to work at Goldman Sachs, you're up against 315,126 other applicants who are vying for just 2,700 summer internship placements. You literally have better odds getting into Harvard.

But fret not, says Jonathan Levin: "Tough labor markets are for taking chances. If the job market seems impenetrable, take the foot-in-the-door job that no one else wants." Jonathan speaks from experience. He had the pleasure of entering the labor market in 2008 — a terrible, no good, very bad year for jobs, if you recall. When a friend of a guy who knew another guy in his alumni network told him about a job opening in La Paz, Bolivia, he took it. "Within 18 months, it led to a full-time job in Mexico City; another job writing about big M&A deals in Brazil; a management position in Miami; and, ultimately, the gig writing this column," he says.

Obviously, some luck was involved. But the basic principle — take risks! — is key. Those who just graduated need to let go of the concept of a "dream job," at least temporarily. Ask yourself: How many living, breathing philosophers do you know? Zip, zilch, zero: "Philosophy majors rarely end up being philosophers, and even business majors and engineers end up in an extraordinarily diverse set of careers and cities," Jonathan notes. If more Gen Zers were to embrace an unorthodox career path — it doesn't have to be as dramatic as moving to Bolivia! — we'd have a more resilient labor market. This tweet from writer Evan Armstrong says as much:

As someone who is very much in the first category, I can attest to the magical-ness of it all! Making stuff is seriously underrated.

Futurecasting

The only good thing to come out of the Biden-Trump debate might be the fact that Future has one more fan:

As for the Reddit user's penultimate question — Will Biden be replaced? — there's no answer yet. "Most people have come to understand that there is no ready solution," Francis Wilkinson writes. Today alone, former Ohio Democratic congressman Tim Ryan said Kamala Harris should replace her boss (he might be on to something), Rep. Lloyd Doggett of Texas called for Biden's withdrawal — the first Democrat in Congress to do so — and Marianne Williamson threw her hat in the ring (again). "The dynamics of the contest, which weren't great for Biden to begin with, have now shifted further against him," says Francis.

But democracy is a team sport, and Biden's bench is deep. "The federal government, with a budget of $6.5 trillion and a civilian workforce of more than 2 million, is not the work of one lonely soul in the Oval Office," he writes. When Trump was in the White House, he was alone. By the time he left office in 2020, his cabinet was threadbare, running on nothing but chaos, incompetence and corruption.

Biden's term stands in sharp contrast to his predecessor's: "The Democratic Party is not the exclusive province of old White men. It is representative of the diverse America of the 21st century," Francis asserts. Do we want four more years of a functional democracy run by a host of capable minds, or do we want to elect a man who would prefer to turn our republic into an empire? Before you answer that (admittedly imperfect) question, might I suggest you read this Noah Feldman column on the Supreme Court's "astonishing and tragic" decision to give Trump near-total criminal immunity while he was president.

Telltale Charts

We got Tesla delivery data today, and shares rose on better-than-expected news. But the thing is, the bar for what's "expected" with Elon Musk's EV company is pretty low (remember the Cybertruck pedals?). Although the headlines look promising, Liam Denning says the numbers still indicate a 5% drop in deliveries, year over year. "The wider context suggests little prospect of turning around what should be the main story: another big decline in earnings," he writes.

Does the phrase "Jain Global" mean anything to you? This week, Bobby Jain launched a new monster hedge fund that has $5.3 billion in commitments and... nobody paid any attention! "In the heyday of hedge funds, a launch of that size — one of the biggest ever — by one of the industry's brightest lights would have been headline financial news," Nir Kaissar writes. But the multi-strategy funds that predated Jain's aren't star performers, and haven't been for a long time: "The S&P 500 has outpaced the multi-strategy index by 3.5 percentage points a year since 1994," he notes. "If hedge funds won't acknowledge their capacity constraints, investors will eventually do it for them."

Further Reading

Why does "Chevron deference" matter so much? It comes down to Congress. — Bloomberg's editorial board

Debit card fees got a deserved hit from the Supreme Court. — Stephen L. Carter

ESPN knows better than to put two female fans — and their ice creams — on camera. — Jessica Karl

Tractor Supply is a coward for walking back its equity and climate commitments. — Beth Kowitt

A return to Roe isn't enough: Too many women are struggling to get health care. — Lisa Jarvis

After India's close election, Modi is being besieged on four fronts. — Andy Mukherjee

A tax on the UK's richest civilians would need to be carefully calibrated. — Stuart Trow

Boycotting Iran's democratic charade, though understandable, will have consequences. — Marc Champion

ICYMI

Rudolph Giuliani was disbarred.

RFK Jr.'s darkest secrets came to light.

Trump's hush-money sentencing got delayed.

New York apartment construction is bleak.

Google emissions are blamed on AI.

Kickers

Sports are the new dating apps.

Syd's bandanas on The Bear are epic.

If you get night sweats, read this.

Upflation is the new buzzword.

This is 2024's Barbieheimer.

Notes: Please send glowing chard bandanas and feedback to Jessica Karl at jkarl9@bloomberg.net.

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