Monday, July 8, 2024

Supply Lines: ‘Significant’ trade shifts

Global trade in goods and services is recovering from last year's slump amid economic strength in the US and solid exports from Asia's devel

Global trade in goods and services is recovering from last year's slump amid economic strength in the US and solid exports from Asia's developing nations.

That's among the topline takeaways in a report this month from the UNCTAD, the UN's trade and development agency. It sees a first-half increase of 2% — which would add $250 billion in goods trade and $100 billion in services versus the same period in 2023.

UNCTAD also says it's seeing "significant trade reallocations and increased supply concentration."

The report contains a special section on industrial policy, noting that despite last year's general slowdown in international commerce, programs like the US Inflation Reduction Act, the Made in China 2025 initiative, and the European Union's Net Zero Industry Act helped boost demand for targeted goods.

Surge in EVs

"For instance, detailed product level data from the three major economies suggests that the trade in electric vehicles experienced a remarkable 50% rise," the report said.

And although competition looked to have stayed robust for solar panels and electric vehicles, "this is not the case for battery value chains," the report stated.

"In this sector, the increase in supply concentration has been accompanied by low trade reallocation, suggesting that global supply is becoming increasingly concentrated in the hands of a few major exporters."

Looking ahead, UNCTAD cited three possible implications:

  • More concentration in global trade
  • Splintering into major blocs
  • Rising protectionism and costs

More on Global Trade Turmoil:

Brendan Murray in London

Click here for more of Bloomberg.com's most-read stories about trade, supply chains and shipping.

Charted Territory

Source: Bloomberg

Crumbling ports | South Africa's growing fruit exports have been a rare bright spot in a stagnant economy. Now they are in peril as well.

Today's Must Reads

  • Turkey will soon unveil an agreement with Chinese carmaker BYD to construct a $1 billion plant in the west of the country. Separately, BYD  is acquiring a 20% stake in its Thai official distributor Rever Automotive. 
  • China responded only recently to the European Union's requests for talks in the bloc's investigation into subsidies for electric vehicles despite its attempts to engage for months, the EU's ambassador in Beijing said.
  • Microsoft told employees in China that from September they'll only be able to use iPhones for work, effectively cutting off Android-powered devices from the workplace.
  • Canada will invest C$120 million over five years to build a national chip network.
  • Hurricane Beryl made landfall on the Texas coast early Monday, bringing heavy rains and life-threatening storm surge after churning across the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico.
  • Vietnam's economic growth is accelerating and could meet or exceed the government's 6.5% target this year, according to a government minister. Foxconn, the Taipei-based supplier to Apple, will invest about $551 million in two new projects in Vietnam's northern coastal province of Quang Ninh.

On the Bloomberg Terminal

  • Hong Kong's New World Development is interested in exploring investment opportunities in Thailand's $29 billion landbridge project, as well as in its digital finance and bio-technology industries.
  • Though container shipping rates will keep climbing as long as Red Sea attacks on vessels persist, Bloomberg Intelligence's Lee Klaskow expects them to give back gains once tensions abate.
  • Run SPLC after an equity ticker on Bloomberg to show critical data about a company's suppliers, customers and peers.
  • Use the AHOY function to track global commodities trade flows.
  • See DSET CHOKE for a dataset to monitor shipping chokepoints. 
  • For freight dashboards, see {BI RAIL}, {BI TRCK} and {BI SHIP} and {BI 3PLS}
  • Click HERE for automated stories about supply chains.
  • On the Bloomberg Terminal, type NH FWV for FreightWaves content.
  • See BNEF for BloombergNEF's analysis of clean energy, advanced transport, digital industry, innovative materials, and commodities.

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