Hi there, it's Helen Chandler-Wilde, a Bloomberg UK journalist and editor of the Readout. Hope you enjoy today's newsletter. Today has a real end of term feeling. The sun is shining, people are heading off on their holidays, and Parliament is wrapping up business for summer recess which begins tonight. Instead of steadily winding for the summer holidays, Chancellor Rachel Reeves took yesterday afternoon to deliver a load of bad news about the nation's finances. We took a first look at her speech to Parliament yesterday in the Readout, with further analysis coming overnight from Philip Aldrick, Alex Wickham and Ellen Milligan. They write that all the cuts she announced yesterday – from trimming back winter fuel payments, scrapping rail projects and reviewing a hospital-building program – would together lead to savings of £5.5 billion. Given Reeves said there was a £22 billion shortfall in the books, that still leaves a £16.4 billion hole to fill. Our team thinks this means the speech has "laid the groundwork for a painful, potentially tax rising budget" on October 30. In another massive dump-and-run announcement before the holidays, Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner told the Commons today about how exactly the government plan to stick to their target of building 1.5 million homes. Source: Office for National Statistics Rayner introduced the speech with litotes, saying that her plan wouldn't "be without controversy." Indeed. To start, compulsory housebuilding targets will be reintroduced, forcing the building of 370,000 new homes a year – but cutting London's target from 100,000 to 80,000. It will be easier to build on "poor quality" green belt land known as the "grey belt" – which includes old car parks and scrubland. Already the plan to lower London's targets has been criticized by campaign group Britain Remade, who said it was a mistake. "London has Britain's most acute housing shortage and cities across the world show that 100,000 homes per year can be done," said Sam Richards, their chief executive. The grey belt development idea has also previously been attacked by campaigners on the other side of the aisle, including Campaign to Protect Rural England, which argued that despite some lower quality land, "most of the green belt is high value countryside, including ancient woodlands, nature reserves and productive farmland which play a significant role in reversing our declining biodiversity, storing carbon, producing food and allowing people to access our countryside." Housing is one of the most difficult, yet important, issues to get right. The UK has a deficit of 4.3 million homes, meaning the country would need to build another city the size of London to fix the problem. Average house prices have risen about 70% since 2010, making housing a top-four issue for Brits, according to YouGov. This mismatch of supply and demand in housing feeds into nearly every area of policy, from difficulties finding staff in high-cost housing areas to affecting the number of children people have – something to watch given the UK's fertility rate is far below the 2.1 needed for replacement. None of that will be fixed by the end of recess, or maybe even within this Parliament. Want this in your inbox each weekday? You can sign up here. |
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