Crypto News: Election year's dramatic midpoint

There are three days to go until the election. Labour has slipped to a campaign low but maintains a lead of over 20 points against the Conservatives, according to the Bloomberg poll of polls.

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This week we find ourselves at the half-way point of this year of elections. But by no means does that give us an excuse for a breather: it is instead bookended by drama in France last weekend and next, as well as our own general election on Thursday.

Today our reporters tell us of frenetic horse-trading in France as Emmanuel Macron's centrist coalition and the left-wing New Popular Front weigh up whether to pull candidates from the second round of voting on Sunday and support each other to keep the far-right from winning a majority in the National Assembly this Sunday.

Markets rallied because they deemed Marine Le Pen's victory in the first round slightly less large than polls had suggested. They also think her party just shy of an outright majority in the National Assembly this coming Sunday – thereby reducing the chances of a budget blowing agenda. As one analyst puts it: "A hung parliament could make it hard to get anything done in France in the current parliament, which is exactly what the markets would like."

Throughout the day, divisions emerged on what compromises to make in the name of keeping the NR out. Given Jean-Luc Melenchon's France Unbowed party has proposed expensive policies that would flout EU spending rules, French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire said he could not encourage voters to pick their candidates, describing them as "a danger for the nation" while "the National Rally is a danger for the republic – you don't choose one danger in favor of another." Macron's team is currently trying to find left-wing candidates worthy of backing.

If that's the fight for the future of France, back on this side of La Manche Keir Starmer sat down with Bloomberg's Ellen Milligan over the weekend and reflected on the role he sees his party playing if they win on Thursday: "We've seen the rise of populism and nationalism across Europe, across America and other countries," he said. "It's very important we make the case that only progressive, democratic parties in government have the answers to the challenges that are out there."

One of those challenges is Nigel Farage, whose game plan is dissected in this piece here. The Tories are already divided on whether to let him into their party post-election. This piece predicts it's a debate that will reach a crescendo nearer the next general election should a Labour landslide look likely ahead of the 2029 election. But as I have written before, events on the continent may reach the UK before then.

When Tony Blair was elected in a landslide in 1997, he encountered a problem on his very first morning: he and his team knew very little about their new crop of hundreds of MPs.

If Keir Starmer enters Number 10 on Friday morning, he won't have that problem. While at least half of Labour MPs will be brand new on current predictions, they will at least be familiar to his team. As I've written in the Readout before, Starmer has learnt from Blair's mistake, and his whips are already starting on discipline. In one example of how the whips see the challenge ahead, they gave candidates a presentation at the height of party discontent over Gaza on how the MPs who rebelled over Iraq were more likely to lose their seats.

Keir Starmer our on the campaign trail today Photographer: Jose Sarmento Matos/Bloomberg

Labour has pledged to recognize a Palestinian state as part of efforts to bring about a ceasefire and restore a peace process. But how soon a Labour government actually does that could be an early pressure point on Starmer, from MPs who will still have difficult doorstep conversations about Gaza ringing in their ears. (Despite the poll lead nationally, Labour MPs and campaigners tell me canvassing has been "dire" in Pakistani and Bangladeshi communities, as our analysis attests.) If someone like Shabana Mahmood, the shadow justice secretary, comes close to losing her seat, that will only make the matter feel more urgent.

The Times is reporting that recognizing Palestinian statehood could be delayed in order to avoid opening up a divide with President Biden. We discussed the complexities on this issue with Tom Fletcher, a former foreign policy adviser to Blair, Brown and Cameron, on last week's Voternomics podcast. You can also hear Starmer squirm over the question of whether he will publish the legal advice on UK arms sales to Israel — which Labour has called on the Conservative government to do — on today's Bloomberg UK politics podcast. It will be difficult for Starmer to keep both his MPs and the US happy on this one.

While the incoming Labour cohort is generally expected to be loyal, there's no question Gaza is one possible flashpoint for the likely incoming government. I'll have more on the others tomorrow.

The stories you need to know about this evening

Labour's nuclear submarine plan wins over Barrow-in-Furness.
US Supreme Court says Trump has some immunity, delaying trial.
Morgan Stanley ends bonus caps for City of London staff.
UK house prices grow again in June, Nationwide says.
BlackRock deal to make Preqin's founder richer than Larry Fink.

£315,000

The price of a Ferrari the plug-in hybrid SF90 Stradale, which is depreciating rapidly.

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New York Stock Exchange Photographer: Joe Sohm/Visions of America/Universal Images Group Editorial

Wall Street pros are feeling uneasy about retail investors again. Only this time it's not about the trades they're making — it's about when they're making them.

The amateur-investing revolution that has swept US markets since the pandemic is helping fuel a boom in overnight stock trading. It's playing out at the likes of Robinhood Markets Inc. and Interactive Brokers Group Inc., which have adopted ways to offer the buying and selling of American shares 24 hours a day, five days a week.

That has effectively eliminated the traditional eight-hour overnight break, and the move has proved so popular that others are taking note.

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Allegra Stratton worked for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak when he was chancellor and runs an environmental consultancy, Zeroism.

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