After looking over the final communique from the big economic policy conclave in Beijing last week, Katia Dmitrieva finds there wasn't much to ease concerns about the health of the world's second-biggest economy. Plus: How the podcaster Joe Rogan has made Austin into a comedy town, and why Disney has high hopes for Deadpool & Wolverine. If this email was forwarded to you, click here to sign up. Expectations among the financial set were low ahead of China's third plenum, Beijing's platform for long-term messaging on economic policy. In the end, the once-in-five-year meeting … well, it met those expectations. In a communique delivered a couple of days after the curtain came down on the closed-door event, there was scant mention of the country's two biggest issues: the decimated real estate sector and weak domestic consumption. Members of the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party at a news conference in Beijing on July 19. Photographer: Adek Berry/Getty Images Xi Jinping's government, in its 18,000-word final declaration on the meeting, called for an economy that's more open, streamlined and innovative, stressing increased central government spending, a focus on long-term growth and prioritizing trade. Housing got little notice. It was sandwiched near the bottom of the initial statement, and in the news conference last week, officials made just a passing reference to signs of positive change. There were some additional mentions of the sector in the final communique–but nothing that would suggest a major change in policy. Consumers didn't get much more attention, with officials promising to "do our best" to improve public services and enhance well-being. So what did they talk about? "Reform," the "socialist market system" and some version of "security"/"military"/"army" were mentioned dozens of times. And, of course, "high-quality development." As if in acknowledgment of the lack of new policies to stimulate domestic demand, the People's Bank of China on Monday made a modest (10 basis points) cut to a key short-term interest rate. The plenum made clear that the leadership in Beijing will continue to prioritize high-tech manufacturing, security and trade–even at the risk of further woe in the property market. Even if it means butting heads with countries seeking to shield their industries from Chinese exports. Even if it means sacrificing more robust economic expansion in the near term. (Although most economists still see the country hitting its gross domestic product growth target of roughly 5% this year.) Markets weren't impressed. Chinese companies traded in Hong Kong and the MSCI China index have both declined about 2% since Thursday, when the initial statement was published. The plenum coincided with the release of data showing China's economy is on shakier ground than the world thought. Second-quarter growth came in below most economists' expectations, and consumer spending was dismal by the country's standards. The economy is stuck in the deflationary doldrums amid anemic borrowing, flagging demand and weak real estate sales. "The communique doesn't offer any new substance," says Natixis SA economist Gary Ng. "It means any hope of a big stimulus is dashed once again, and there is no reversal in the market's concern on economic growth." More specifics could still emerge from a Politburo meeting later in July, but given the unconvincing messaging at the third plenum, investors aren't holding their breath. |
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