Thursday, July 25, 2024

China’s big policy meetup wasn’t very satisfying

Plus: Joe Rogan's Austin comedy empire

After looking over the final communique from the big economic policy conclave in Beijing last week, Katia Dmitrieva finds there wasn't much to ease concerns about the health of the world's second-biggest economy. Plus: How the podcaster Joe Rogan has made Austin into a comedy town, and why Disney has high hopes for Deadpool & Wolverine. If this email was forwarded to you, click here to sign up.

Expectations among the financial set were low ahead of China's third plenum, Beijing's platform for long-term messaging on economic policy. In the end, the once-in-five-year meeting … well, it met those expectations.

In a communique delivered a couple of days after the curtain came down on the closed-door event, there was scant mention of the country's two biggest issues: the decimated real estate sector and weak domestic consumption.

Members of the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party at a news conference in Beijing on July 19. Photographer: Adek Berry/Getty Images

Xi Jinping's government, in its 18,000-word final declaration on the meeting, called for an economy that's more open, streamlined and innovative, stressing increased central government spending, a focus on long-term growth and prioritizing trade.

Housing got little notice. It was sandwiched near the bottom of the initial statement, and in the news conference last week, officials made just a passing reference to signs of positive change. There were some additional mentions of the sector in the final communique–but nothing that would suggest a major change in policy. Consumers didn't get much more attention, with officials promising to "do our best" to improve public services and enhance well-being.

So what did they talk about? "Reform," the "socialist market system" and some version of "security"/"military"/"army" were mentioned dozens of times. And, of course, "high-quality development." As if in acknowledgment of the lack of new policies to stimulate domestic demand, the People's Bank of China on Monday made a modest (10 basis points) cut to a key short-term interest rate.

The plenum made clear that the leadership in Beijing will continue to prioritize high-tech manufacturing, security and trade–even at the risk of further woe in the property market. Even if it means butting heads with countries seeking to shield their industries from Chinese exports. Even if it means sacrificing more robust economic expansion in the near term. (Although most economists still see the country hitting its gross domestic product growth target of roughly 5% this year.)

Markets weren't impressed. Chinese companies traded in Hong Kong and the MSCI China index have both declined about 2% since Thursday, when the initial statement was published.

The plenum coincided with the release of data showing China's economy is on shakier ground than the world thought. Second-quarter growth came in below most economists' expectations, and consumer spending was dismal by the country's standards. The economy is stuck in the deflationary doldrums amid anemic borrowing, flagging demand and weak real estate sales.

"The communique doesn't offer any new substance," says Natixis SA economist Gary Ng. "It means any hope of a big stimulus is dashed once again, and there is no reversal in the market's concern on economic growth."

More specifics could still emerge from a Politburo meeting later in July, but given the unconvincing messaging at the third plenum, investors aren't holding their breath.

In Brief

Rogan Recenters the Comedy Universe

Illustration: Teng Meu for Bloomberg Businessweek

One day in March, during the taping of his podcast, Joe Rogan looked over at his guest, comedian Kevin James, and delivered a well-polished sales pitch. It was time, Rogan said to the former star of the CBS sitcom The King of Queens, to consider a permanent change of scenery. "Come to Texas," Rogan said. "Come on, buddy, I got you."

Since Rogan relocated his family from Los Angeles to Austin four years earlier, he explained, he'd cultivated a lifestyle tailor-made for the new age of the comedy profession—one ruled by podcasts, rather than Hollywood movies and sitcoms. Comics were no longer so tightly tethered to the soundstages of New York or Los Angeles. They could live almost anywhere. But Austin, he said, was the new center of the comedy universe.

Already, Rogan had a new podcast studio, a sauna, a bowhunting range and, most important, a new club, the Comedy Mothership, for doing stand-up—all of it engineered to share with his friends. "The club is always available, you'll have fun," Rogan said. "We can work out together. We've got a beautiful gym." Plus, the way they treated freedom in his adopted town was like a religion, Rogan added. "They are not interested in controlling what you buy and where you go and what you do on your land," he said. "You can own a zebra."

In the end, James declined, but other comedians presented with the same proposition have packed their bags. Over the past two years, a growing cadre of comedians and podcasters have heeded Rogan's siren song and set up shop in Austin.

Felix Gillette and Ashley Carman write about the efforts of the world's biggest podcaster to recalibrate the stand-up scene: How Joe Rogan Became Comedy's New Kingmaker

Marvel Puts Its Hopes on These Guys

Illustration: Clémence Mira for Bloomberg Businessweek

Not that long ago, superhero movies could be counted on to fill theaters' seats and studios' coffers. But in recent years, a deluge of often-indistinguishable caped-crusader films has overtaxed audiences, turning the once-reliable money-spinners into financially risky bets.

Hollywood hopes this week's opening of Deadpool & Wolverine changes that narrative. The R-rated, F-bomb-laden comic book adaptation is expected to have the best domestic opening weekend of any movie so far this year, with industry tracker Boxoffice Pro forecasting $180 million to $200 million in ticket sales in the US and Canada. That would be welcome news for Walt Disney Co.'s Marvel Studios—home to Captain America, the Hulk and Thor—which has recently suffered a string of disappointments.

The movie, wherein Ryan Reynolds and Hugh Jackman reprise their roles as the foul-mouthed, katana-wielding masked vigilante and the X-Men mutant, serves as the third installment in the Deadpool trilogy. The character has been one of Hollywood's most bankable if unorthodox superheroes, with the two earlier films—released by 20th Century in 2016 and 2018—grossing a combined $1.57 billion at the box office.

Thomas Buckley writes about the high hopes Disney has for the characters, who are a lot different from the studio's princesses: Disney Bets on Deadpool, Wolverine and Dirty Jokes to Save Marvel

Sad Songs Say So Much

30%
That's how much shares of Universal Music Group, which represents artists including Taylor Swift and Drake, have fallen since its initial public offering. Investors in the world's biggest record label include billionaire Bill Ackman.

A Troubling Health-Care Trend

 "If I was a patient and I knew that my nurse practitioner didn't have prior experience in nursing, I would ask for a different provider."
Tracy Sibley
A registered nurse getting her advanced degree from Walden University
Nurse practitioners in the US increasingly treat patients independently, including in specialty practices and emergency rooms. When they aren't well trained, the results can be tragic.

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