Wednesday, July 3, 2024

5 Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day: Asia

Good morning. Democratic lawmakers consider asking Joe Biden to pull out of the US presidential election. Volodymyr Zelenskiy challenges Don

Good morning. Democratic lawmakers consider asking Joe Biden to pull out of the US presidential election. Volodymyr Zelenskiy challenges Donald Trump to explain his plan for ending the war with Russia. Sri Lanka agreed terms for a $12 billion bond restructuring. Here's what's moving markets — Sebastian Boyd

Biden Pressure

Dozens of Democratic lawmakers are considering signing a letter demanding  that  Joe Biden drop  his bid for reelection, a senior party official said, as panic mounts that  incumbent US President might cost his allies control of Congress. Biden is rapidly losing the support of Democratic lawmakers and candidates concerned the 81-year-old's continued candidacy would lead to a Republican sweep of Washington and an unchecked Donald Trump presidency. The White House earlier Wednesday denied a New York Times report that the president is considering bowing out of the contest just four months before the election. 

Zelenskiy Challenge

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Trump should come forward with his plan to quickly end the war with Russia, warning that any proposal must avoid violating the nation's sovereignty. "If Trump knows how to finish this war, he should tell us today," Zelenskiy said in a Bloomberg Television interview in Kyiv on Wednesday. "If there are risks to Ukrainian independence, if we lose statehood – we want to be ready for this, we want to know." Trump has boasted that he'll end the war by the time he's inaugurated in January.

Sri Lanka Deal

Sri Lanka and creditors reached agreement on the terms for a $12 billion bond restructuring, bringing the South Asian nation closer to completing its debt overhaul two years after it defaulted. Bondholders and the nation agreed to a framework for a deal that includes notes linked to economic performance and a governance-linked structure as part of plain vanilla instruments, according to a statement released Wednesday at the conclusion of the second round of restricted talks.

Waiting for Data

Federal Reserve officials said they were awaiting additional evidence that inflation is cooling and were divided on how long to keep interest rates elevated at their last policy meeting. Minutes from the two-day Federal Open Market Committee gathering ended June 12 showed officials didn't expect it would be appropriate to lower borrowing costs "until additional information had emerged to give them greater confidence that inflation" is on track to their 2% goal. The next major US release, the monthly jobs report that's due for publication Friday and includes wage numbers, is set to provide additional evidence on how the US economy is faring.

Santos for Sale?

Australian stock investors will be keeping a keen eye on Santos following news that Saudi Aramco and Abu Dhabi National Oil have been separately studying potential bids for the Adelaide-based gas producer, people with knowledge of the matter said. Aramco and Adnoc have been conducting preliminary evaluations of Santos as a possible acquisition target, the people said, asking not to be identified because the information is private. The company had a a market value of A$24.9 billion ($16.7 billion) at the close of trading of Sydney trading Wednesday. Meanwhile, macro traders focused on Australia will be tuned into fresh government data on imports and exports, which economists predict to show a shrinking trade surplus 

What we've been reading

Here's what caught our eye over the past 24 hours: 

And finally, here's what Tatiana Darie is interested in today

It's clear the market mood is bullish on a day when JPMorgan's chief market strategist, known as the "last bear standing," left the firm. Bitcoin, which rides alongside the Nasdaq 100 rather than acting as an inflation hedge, should have benefited from that sentiment. But it hasn't -- and that suggests we are at a crossroads.

Either Bitcoin's recent downdraft merely stems from technical issues like the repayments in Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash by bankrupt crypto exchange Mt. Gox and the end of Bitcoin ETF euphoria -- or it's a canary in the coal mine, highlighting diminished appetite for high-beta assets as the US economy slows. I tend to think it's the former rather than the latter, giving Bitcoin a chance of hitting new record highs before year-end. But the rise in US continuing jobless claims to a three-year high does give one pause.

Looking ahead to the end of the year, Bitcoin's fate depends on the economy. A soft landing would be bullish. But in a recession, all high-beta asset prices will feel downward pressure, and the cryptocurrency's decline would gather steam.

Tatiana Darie writes for Bloomberg's Markets Live blog in New York. Follow her on X at @tatianadariee.

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