| This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, an exceptional monsoon of Bloomberg Opinion's opinions. On Sundays, we look at the major themes of the week past and how they will define the week ahead. Sign up for the daily newsletter here. A few years ago, I sat at a bar watching locals tipple rum and cheer as the leader of the progressive party pulled out a dramatic election victory after years of scandal under a corrupt right-wing president. Few were anticipating a gracious concession speech; rather, voters braced themselves for a vituperative battle over alleged voter fraud and worried about a refusal to hand over power peacefully. Far fewer expected that, in the spring of 2024, the ousted incumbent would find himself convicted on multiple felony charges by a New York City court. Of course, you knew I was talking about … the 2021 Honduran national election! Xiomara Castro de Zelaya's triumph over the party of Juan Orlando Hernández eventually ushered in a rare democratic change of government for the battered nation. But if the elated folks around me were expecting a Cinderella ending for Castro, the first woman to take the nation's helm, they have been largely disappointed. Crime is still endemic; economic growth has stalled; inflation soared above 9% as the pandemic waned; and last year Honduras ranked a dismal 154th out of 180 countries in Transparency International's corruption perceptions index, trailing even hyperinflation poster child Zimbabwe. It's a cautionary tale for a year in which half the global population will vote in national elections. And there is plenty to talk about — India, Mexico, South Africa, the UK and all of Europe — that doesn't involve wondering if a different scandal-ridden president is headed to Rikers Island. Women are also set for victory in this week's European Parliament elections, although their neo-fascist politics are the antithesis of the leftist leanings of Castro. "Is France's Marine Le Pen ready to get along with Italy's Giorgia Meloni? It seems like an odd question," writes Lionel Laurent. "Yet the very fact that Le Pen has extended a hand to Meloni, offering to combine their distinct voting groups into the European Parliament's second biggest, underscores how they've struggled to coexist politically." "Actually pulling off such a tie-up would send a very bleak signal about the European Union's prospects with the shadow of Donald Trump's looming return, and has added to the urgency of French President's Emmanuel Macron's call for European voters to 'wake up' to the far-right threat and back a fresh push for closer integration," adds Lionel. "As France elects a new president in 2027, with Le Pen the current favorite, this may be the calm before the storm." Speaking of female leaders, remember when it looked like Mutti snubbed Modi? I miss her. As for India, things are really heating up in the world's largest democracy, now holding the world's longest election day. "The scorching temperatures in the capital New Delhi this week are a warning sign," writes David Fickling. "Every side of politics wants India to become the affluent nation its people aspire to. The bridge to that destination, however, is weakened with every scorching summer and exceptional monsoon." (Mark Gongloff reminds us that things are uncool in the world's second-largest democracy, too.) But temperatures aren't the only thing soaring. "In pushing India's stock market to an all-time high last week, investors seem to be drawing a smooth, straight line between a third term for Prime Minister Narendra Modi — their preferred and expected outcome of the ongoing general election — and soaring corporate profits. They might be ignoring an all-too-important speed bump: consumer debt," writes Andy Mukherjee. Another election speed bump worth paying attention to: In South Africa, the African National Congress seems to have lost its National Assembly majority for the first time since the end of apartheid. "This has caused anxiety in business and capital markets, but it does not matter that much in the greater scheme of things," Justice Malala writes. "South Africa is normalizing. It is moving away from post-liberation politics to the hard and sometimes uncertain work of a normal competitive democracy, of power that changes hands. In the long term, this is good."  Richard Abbey and John Authers are less sanguine, noting the country is in a "quagmire" of corruption, what with the lights going out nine times a day. "The prospect of a coalition government is unsettling in one of Africa's largest economies, where left-wing political parties are capitalizing on resentment over unfulfilled promises by the ruling party," they write. "For more than 42 million registered voters, the coming elections offer a critical moment, even a call to duty to help change the nation's path. Investors watching from the sidelines can only hope the fallout from the exercise does not come with devastating consequences." Mexico, too, is about to elect its first female president, and she'll be in a (slightly) better place than Honduras's Castro: 126th in the transparency index. "When Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (universally known as AMLO) won election in 2018, markets were terrified," Richard and John write. Fortunately, markets aren't always right: "As AMLO enters the last months of his presidency, he is on course to be the first president since the peso began to float in 1971 who will leave the currency stronger than when he arrived."  Source: Bloomberg "It's fascinating that both the main candidates — AMLO's pick, Claudia Sheinbaum, and Xochitl Galvez, choice of an alliance of three traditional parties — are women, but neither will likely make any great change to 'safety-first' monetary and fiscal policy," Richard and John write. "Sheinbaum, the favorite, would be a continuity president with a more technocratic and less autocratic style than her predecessor." Sheinbaum may win the election, but will she win hearts? "The former Mexico City mayor doesn't inspire the same level of fandom as her mentor," writes Maya Averbuch in Bloomberg News's Big Take. "At campaign events, people wear T-shirts with a cartoon image of AMLO, ask her to sign a copy of his most recent book and give her letters to him thanking him for his service." ¡Ay, eso duele! Bonus Jailhouse Reading: Bonus Jailhouse Watching: - If Trump Becomes President, Will He Have to Go to Prison? — Noah R. Feldman
We know there will Always Be an England, but a yard of Greggs Sausage rolls is a limited-time deal:  Sources: Greggs; Getty Images. And it's not the only thing in Britain that's about to get stuffed. "Perhaps the most significant advantage that a ruling party has under the current British political system is the ability to decide the timing of the general election," writes Adrian Wooldridge. "Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has not only squandered this advantage with his decision to call the election in July rather than in November, as most people expected; he has also caught his own party rather than Labour with its trousers round its ankles." If the Tories need to stock up on Henry Poole braces, Labour's Keir Starmer might need some inspiration from when his party was New. "Labour's support is shallow as well as broad. Unlike with Tony Blair in 1997, there is little enthusiasm for the party or its leader," writes Chaminda Jayanetti. He sees the downside of a landslide victory: "That's not the same as forming the deeper bonds that used to keep them voting Labour, election after election, out of habit." Still, this one looks easy-peasy. "Ejecting perhaps the world's most electorally successful political party suggests more than ennui is to blame. Conservatives' predicament should serve as a warning to political parties that fail in that most important job: governing well," write Bloomberg Opinion's editors. "Despite the Conservatives' oft-stated goal of 'leveling up,' inequality has actually widened between the southeast of the country (including London) and the poorer north." The editors wrap up by damning Sunak with the faintest of praise: "He deserves credit for calming markets after his predecessor's brief and destabilizing premiership, and for a much-needed trade deal with the European Union that put relations on better footing ... Yet it all felt like too little, too late." Or, as Adrian notes, too soon. Notes: Please send vegan sausage rolls and feedback to Tobin Harshaw at tharshaw@bloomberg.net. | 
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