| The music industry has produced more new pop stars this year than any in recent memory. Almost 80 artists have had a song reach Spotify's Global top 50 chart for the first time in the first six months of 2024, the most in the last five years. That includes brand-new artists, like the South African singer Tyla, as well as veterans experiencing their first real taste of stardom, like Sabrina Carpenter. The surge is welcome news for the music industry, which has spent years complaining about how hard it is to launch new acts. It's especially encouraging because the data belie the two big reasons for the music industry's concerns: the rise of catalog and the impermanence of TikTok. "More artists, not just songs, have been breaking," Aaron Bay-Schuck, the chief executive officer of Warner Records, told me Friday. The TikTok effectWith the onset of the pandemic, a lot of music companies chased instant gratification and quick wins, Bay-Shuck said. They signed artists who had songs go viral on TikTok without considering whether those artists had the skill, ambition or temperament to succeed in the music business. TikTok has become the single most powerful promotion vehicle in culture, but many executives feel it is better at promoting individual songs than artists. Labels tripped over one another signing people with viral songs on TikTok, only to realize they didn't have the goods (and fans didn't care). For every Lil Nas X, there are 10 artists you never heard from again.
This is an oversimplification of TikTok's role, of course. Artists who find a following on TikTok can become major stars. But being popular on TikTok alone isn't enough. Success in music, even in a TikTok world, requires years of work. Consider Benson Boone, one of the year's biggest breakouts. The singer-songwriter from Monroe, Washington, attracted the attention of Dan Reynolds of the band Imagine Dragons with his posts on TikTok, where he was teasing a song called Ghost Town. That led to an appearance on American Idol for Boone and a record deal with Reynolds' Night Street (and Warner). Boone released Ghost Town via Warner, and then wrote song after song, testing out different styles, co-writers and producers. Best known for ballads, he tried up-tempo songs. But fans preferred ballads, so he kept his voice front and center. He also started to tease more of himself online. By the time Boone released Beautiful Things, the lead single from his debut studio album, the audience was primed. The song topped the charts in more than a dozen countries and was the No. 1 on Spotify globally for six weeks. It remains in the top 10 nearly six months after its debut. His second single, Slow It Down, has spent 14 weeks on the charts and remains in the top 50. "These are not one-hit-wonder artists," a Spotify spokesperson told me. One hit song has fueled interest in others in the artist's catalog. The song of summerStreaming has enabled more people to release music. It's also enabled songs to stay on the charts for far longer than they used to. The rise of the shallow catalog is one reason why new music has a harder time finding an audience; the marketplace is more crowded than ever. But that hasn't hindered Boone, or Chappell Roan or Carpenter, the year's biggest breakout. It made seem odd to label Carpenter a breakout. She is a former Disney Channel star who has been releasing music for more than a decade. But none of her first five albums reached the top 20 in the US, and she'd never had a top 10 (or 20) song until this year. She's changed labels (though stayed within the same larger group). Carpenter has risen the old fashioned way — releasing an album, touring and then releasing another album, methodically building a fan base. In 2016, she played small nightclubs. In 2017, she upgraded to theaters and amphitheaters (and opened for Ariana Grande). She had to take a break from touring in 2020 and 2021 due to the pandemic. Ghazi Shami, the CEO and founder of the independent distributor Empire, said the lack of touring during Covid also impeded new artists more than established ones. They couldn't get on the road and forge a connection with fans who fell in love with a song. But by 2022, Carpenter was able to book major theaters. Now Carpenter has the two most popular songs in the world and is going to sell out arenas – venues eight to 10 times the size of those she was playing a couple of years ago. "None of these are overnight successes," said Bay-Schuck. Those willing to stick it out and develop their talent are seeing the fruits of that labor. Shami's Empire just released its biggest hit ever with A Bar Song (Tipsy) by Shaboozey, a singer-songwriter from Virginia. Empire signed him three and a half years ago, after Shaboozey had already a taste of success with his contribution to the soundtrack of Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse. But it wasn't until his third studio album — and a big lift from Beyoncé — that he landed a proper hit of his own. Scott Manson, long-time deputy to music impresario Scooter Braun, is taking over as president of North Road, the independent studio led by media mogul Peter Chernin. He arrives just a few weeks after former Showtime boss David Nevins stepped down as CEO. Manson is a former lawyer who spent the last decade helping Braun turn his management company into a billion-dollar business. He was a key figure in the sale of SB Projects to Korean music giant Hybe.
He now reports to Chernin, taking over a well-capitalized studio that produced Ford v. Ferrari and the Planet of the Apes films and. Chernin created North Road in 2022, raising $800 million from two private equity firms to finance production, as well as the acquisition of other producers. North Road raised another $150 million last year. Chernin said in a statement that Manson's background working with artists and building businesses around them appealed to him. North Road has acquired or invested in the producer of Love is Blind, the Turkish producer of the Netflix hit Testament: The Story of Moses, and Little Room Films, the production company of Jason Hehir, director The Last Dance. (They also took a small stake in Peyton Manning's company.) The No. 1 movie in the world is…Still Inside Out 2, which eclipsed $1 billion in sales this weekend. But A Quiet Place: Day One, the third installment in the horror franchise, came very close to knocking it off. The film delivered the biggest opening in the history of the franchise with more than $50 million in North America. The live-music business plateausAfter a record year for live music in 2023, the touring business has hit a ceiling. Industry sales grew 9% in the first half of the year, but that was only because of more shows and higher prices. The average gross per show declined, as did the number of tickets sold, according to Pollstar. This is not a crisis, as some have suggested. While there have been individual failures – like the Black Keys and Jennifer Lopez – big stars are doing just fine. Madonna has the top-selling tour of the year. Bad Bunny is continuing his record run. Karol G has established herself as a major force, while Coldplay and the Eagles still pack houses wherever they go. But the post-pandemic boom is over. The industry has settled into single-digit growth. Deals, deals, dealsI went to see Sampha and SZA in Hyde Park last night. I recommend both if you are unfamiliar. I also made a playlist for my travels, if you'd like to check it out. | 
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