Saturday, June 29, 2024

Tesla's supermajority is slipping

The end of a six-year streak |

Tesla dominates the US market for electric cars, but an inflection point is on the way. You can read and share this story on Bloomberg.com. For unlimited access to climate and energy news, subscribe!

Carmakers catch up 

By Tom Randall

Tesla is on the verge of losing a key bragging right it's held for the past six years: outselling all EV competitors in the US combined. 

In the 12 months through May, Tesla sold approximately 618,000 electric cars in the US, compared with about 597,000 fully electric vehicles sold by other manufacturers, according to the latest figures from Marklines. Next week, carmakers will report second-quarter sales that include popular new models from General Motors, Hyundai and its affiliated Kia Corp. 

Tesla has made the top-selling EV in the US ever since its Model S luxury sedan blew past the Nissan Leaf in 2015, and has sold more EVs than the rest of the industry combined since the Model 3 took off in 2018.

But traditional automakers have been steadily closing the gap. In the first quarter, Tesla's sales dropped 13% year-over-year — enough to trigger a panic about the US market — while sales rose at a scorching pace for six of the 10 biggest EV makers, climbing anywhere from 56% at Hyundai/Kia to 86% at Ford. April and May continued the trend. Tesla could lose its US market majority by the time this month's sales are tallied.

Some of the slowdown has to do with Elon Musk's polarizing politics. But the bigger culprit is a glaring gap in the product cycle that's left Tesla reliant on just two vehicles for 95% of its sales, says Stephanie Valdez-Streaty, director of industry insights at Cox Automotive. Rivals are now flooding the market in segments where Tesla has nothing to offer. 

"Elon really moved the industry forward with electrification, but he's trying to compete against other brands with new models out," Valdez-Streaty said. "And Tesla doesn't have any new models." 

To be clear, Tesla remains the US's biggest EV-maker by a long shot: Over the past 12 months, it sold more than five times as many electric cars as its closest rival, Hyundai/Kia. Tesla makes the world's best-selling car, the Model Y, and sells more fully electric vehicles globally than anyone. 

It's also the world's most valuable car company, currently worth around $575 billion. That's less than half of its peak $1.2 trillion market cap in 2021, but is still almost 85% more than No. 2 automaker Toyota. 

The few companies that can claim a market majority similar to Tesla's in the US are peerless in their fields. Apple has it for smartphones, Google for internet search, and Nvidia for AI chips. Such unrivaled dominance helped each of those tech giants hit stock valuations of more than $2 trillion. And like those companies, Tesla has more diverse aspirations. Musk has said its consumer auto business will eventually be dwarfed by its clean-energy division, Cybercab taxi service and humanoid robots.

Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas said last week that Tesla's stock price remains at risk as long as investors see it as an auto company stuck in an increasingly competitive market. But in the long term, Jonas anticipates Tesla will be valued like the other tech companies that moved beyond their first conquests. "The car is to Tesla what the video game chip is to Nvidia [or] what selling books is to Amazon," he said. 

For now, though, the car business generates more than 90% of Tesla's revenue. And it's worth noting that both of Jonas's examples were able to retain their core market majorities, in video game chips and books. With electric cars, Tesla may not be able to do the same.   

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This week we learned

  1. Lufthansa is adding a surcharge to pay for clean fuel. Europe's biggest airline group will charge up to €72 ($77) per flight next year to cover the costs of sustainable aviation fuels. 

  2. Wildfires are making utilities uninsurable. In the US West, some utilities are now operating without any insurance — leaving them on the hook for millions of dollars if their power lines are linked to a blaze.

  3. Denmark is putting a carbon tax on agriculture. The Nordic nation will start taxing farmers 300 kroner ($43) per ton of CO2 equivalent emitted as of 2030. Denmark is also implementing a detailed strategy to nudge its citizens toward a more plant-based diet. 

  4. Anxious investors are ripping up ESG playbooks. Anti-green backlash — amid a global election-supercycle — has investors paring exposure to sectors including renewable energy and electric cars.

  5. The Hajj heat deaths are a harbinger. More than 1,300 people died during the Hajj as temperatures hit 52C, underscoring the journey's growing dangers — and the climate challenge ahead for Saudi Arabia

Over 1.8 million pilgrims attended Hajj in June. Photographer: Fadel Senna/AFP

Worth your time

Texas has been walloped by extreme weather this year, including hailstones the size of DVDs, a derecho that punched windows out of skyscrapers, a tropical storm that shut down Corpus Christi's port and the largest wildfire in state history. The onslaught illustrates how climate change is increasing what are known as "compound events" — and how Texas is (sorry, Florida) the clear US epicenter of extreme weather

A car sits submerged in water in Surfside Beach, Texas, on June 19 as Tropical Storm Alberto approaches land. Photographer: Jon Shapley

See you in Seattle!

We're less than two weeks away from the inaugural Bloomberg Green Festival, taking place July 10-13 in Seattle. The festival will feature expert speakers, panel discussions, performances, art installations, and will officially honor the Bloomberg Green Ones to Watch — 13 investors, policymakers, scientists and activists who are shaping the future of the environment. Read more about the Ones to Watch here, and don't forget to secure your Green Festival tickets!

Weekend listening 

"Some people might say we have too many nuclear fusion startups," Bill Gates tells Akshat Rathi on this week's Zero. "But if we don't build 100 reactors, we won't make a significant contribution to climate."

Gates joined Rathi on the sidelines of the Breakthrough Energy Summit in London, where they also discussed the implications of AI for energy demand and emissions, and what a second Trump term would mean for US investment in clean tech. Listen to the episode here, and subscribe on Apple or Spotify to get new episodes of Zero every Thursday.

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Photographer: Mario Wagner

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