Thursday, June 27, 2024

Next China: EVs in the fast lane

And how they got there so fast

Hello this is Colum Murphy in Beijing, where electric vehicles are the talk of the town, much like Washington and Berlin.

China's eye-catching (and cheap) models are making their way to many markets around the world. That's often causing anxiety among foreign governments worried they'll hurt their own auto industries and even their entire industrial bases.

The concern is so great that this week Canada joined the US and European Union in moving ahead with tariffs on Chinese EVs.

The fear is that Beijing is unfairly propping up its EV sector with floods of subsidies. There is some truth in that. One recent study says China's EVs benefited from at least $231 billion in government funds and aid from 2009 to the end of last year.

Still, there's more to the story. Our reporting trips to Chongqing and elsewhere in China found that while lavish financial backing surely helped, many other elements propelled the industry, like vision, timing, entrepreneurial spirit and innovation-spurring competition.

The bad news for other countries is that many of these factors will be difficult to replicate. 

Take vision. 

Many industry insiders in China point to Wan Gang, the science and technology minister from 2007 to 2018, for identifying early on how automakers would struggle to catch up with foreign brands in the market for cars with internal combustion engines.

That insight — along with Wan's ability to spot how demand for new-energy tech would blossom — was key to putting China on the path of becoming a world leader in EVs.

Joerg Wuttke, the former president of the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China, said that while there were many "cooks responsible for the success of Chinese EVs," Wan was well-placed to execute good ideas.

"And he did it at an early stage when nobody had even thought about it," Wuttke added.

Over the years, Chinese decision-makers made other calls that proved to be winners, such as when they invited Elon Musk's Tesla into the local market. The US firm started manufacturing its cars in China in 2019 — a development that not only piqued consumer interest but spurred the EV supply chain build-out.

That supply chain is something you won't see in flashy EV showrooms ubiquitous in Chinese shopping malls. Yet it underpins the nation's EV sector.

Or to put it the way a proud government official did recently: electric carmakers in the Yangtze River Delta that's home to Shanghai can get all the parts they need in a four-hour window.

The US, EU and Canada may hope that tariffs will protect their EV industries so they can eventually compete with China on price. The extra duties may buy them some time, but they'll also need heavy dashes of vision, entrepreneurship and innovation to join China in the fast lane.

Plenum Time

The word is out: the elite of China's ruling Communist Party will meet from July 15 to 18 for a long-awaited gathering that usually charts the long-term course for economic policy.

The so-called third plenum — a gathering of the party's Central Committee usually held every five years — will be closely watched by investors, economists and the rest of us for signs of policy pivots in the world's second-biggest economy.

Four decades ago, China launched pioneering economic reforms at such a meeting. Then in 2013 – when Xi Jinping was just taking charge – it was the venue for a major easing of the one-child policy, partly over worries that workers were getting scarce.

The event bringing together roughly 400 state leaders, ministers, armed forces chiefs, provincial bosses and top academics will be held at a military hotel in Beijing.

Why this plenum was delayed from last year remains a mystery but the details of how China's government and paramount party work are usually pretty opaque. To make the picture a little clearer, we've pulled together a handy explainer – with diagrams! – detailing the key players and institutions running the world's No. 2 economy. Check it out here:

This plenum comes as senior policymakers contend with a deep property downturn weighing on the economy, deflationary pressure and high youth unemployment. Beijing is also facing an international backlash against its surge of cheap exports, which has led to a wave of tariffs.

China is playing its cards close to the chest on what this plenum will do. State media has been vague, reporting that it "will primarily examine issues related to further comprehensively deepening reform and advancing Chinese modernization."

Andrew Swan, an asset manager at Man Group, the world's biggest publicly traded hedge fund firm, expects the plenum to introduce measures aimed at boosting consumption, hence reviving the sluggish stock market.

Bloomberg Intelligence predicts China "will likely reiterate its aim of achieving technology self-sufficiency" to unleash "new productive forces," a favorite catchphrase of Xi's.

This week, Xi signaled the great importance he places on the role of technology in China's future. He warned that "core technologies are controlled by others," and urged scientists to close that gap.

Those comments followed reports that the Biden administration is considering even more curbs on China's access to chip technology used for artificial intelligence.

The risk with the plenum is that expectations for big changes may surpass the actual outcomes. China has, after all, refrained from rolling out big gun stimulus measures to help the economy. Adopting a wait-and-see approach to the plenum may not be such a bad idea.

Courting Change

27
As of next week, that will be the how many years it has been since Hong Kong returned to Chinese rule. Beijing has been exerting greater control over the financial hub, a move that is impacting courts. Eight judges on the city's top court have either resigned or chose not to renew their three-year terms since Beijing imposed a national security law in 2020.

Pass the Wegovy

As China grows increasingly prosperous, its people are getting, well, a bit thicker in the waistline. Just as in the US and Europe, weight-loss drugs are becoming more popular.

This week, Chinese regulators approved Novo Nordisk's blockbuster Wegovy treatment for chronic weight management, expanding  competition for next-generation obesity drugs in the nation.

That means Novo can market the weekly jab for treatment of people who are overweight or obese, though the company has said it will restrict initial sales of Wegovy in China as it grapples with how to control access to the medicine.

The diabetes treatment version of the drug was approved in China in 2021, under the brand Ozempic, whose sales in the nation more than doubled last year to 4.82 billion kroner ($693.5 million).

The much-anticipated approval means Novo can finally offer a product for weight loss in a market where people had been relying on off-label use of Ozempic.

Demand has picked up as official data show the nation is getting fatter: the latest national survey found that more than half of the adult population was either overweight or obese.

US rival Eli Lilly's tirzepatide has already won approval in China as a diabetes treatment, and it is now under regulatory review for weight loss.

Injection pens on Novo's Wegovy production line in Hillerod, Denmark. Photographer: Carsten Snejbjerg/Bloomberg

Chinese drugmakers are also preparing to challenge Novo on both Wegovy and Ozempic. The patent on the active ingredient, semaglutide, will expire in the Asian nation in 2026, five years before it does in Europe and six years earlier than the US.

That'll be pretty welcome in a nation where so many good food options make it real hard to skip a meal.

What We're Reading, Listening to and Watching:

  • China miscalculated with Europe in backing Russia, US envoy says
  • Why economists are raising China's growth forecasts: Video
  • Finance elite face $400,000 pay cap, bonus clawbacks
  • China's AI strength suggests US curbs could backfire: Opinion
  • Beijing becomes last megacity to ease housing rules
  • The entrepreneurs who opened US-China trade: Podcast
  • Builder Sino-Ocean group gets wind-up petition in Hong Kong
  • Premier warns decoupling will lead to 'destructive spiral'
  • Ax-wielding Chinese sailors raise stakes in disputed seas

No comments:

Post a Comment

Welcome to RogerScott

Where we’re dedicated to giving you an edge in the daily markets… View in browser View in browser                                     Go...