Hello this is Colum Murphy in Beijing, where electric vehicles are the talk of the town, much like Washington and Berlin. China's eye-catching (and cheap) models are making their way to many markets around the world. That's often causing anxiety among foreign governments worried they'll hurt their own auto industries and even their entire industrial bases. The concern is so great that this week Canada joined the US and European Union in moving ahead with tariffs on Chinese EVs. The fear is that Beijing is unfairly propping up its EV sector with floods of subsidies. There is some truth in that. One recent study says China's EVs benefited from at least $231 billion in government funds and aid from 2009 to the end of last year. Still, there's more to the story. Our reporting trips to Chongqing and elsewhere in China found that while lavish financial backing surely helped, many other elements propelled the industry, like vision, timing, entrepreneurial spirit and innovation-spurring competition. The bad news for other countries is that many of these factors will be difficult to replicate. Take vision. Many industry insiders in China point to Wan Gang, the science and technology minister from 2007 to 2018, for identifying early on how automakers would struggle to catch up with foreign brands in the market for cars with internal combustion engines. That insight — along with Wan's ability to spot how demand for new-energy tech would blossom — was key to putting China on the path of becoming a world leader in EVs. Joerg Wuttke, the former president of the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China, said that while there were many "cooks responsible for the success of Chinese EVs," Wan was well-placed to execute good ideas. "And he did it at an early stage when nobody had even thought about it," Wuttke added. Over the years, Chinese decision-makers made other calls that proved to be winners, such as when they invited Elon Musk's Tesla into the local market. The US firm started manufacturing its cars in China in 2019 — a development that not only piqued consumer interest but spurred the EV supply chain build-out. That supply chain is something you won't see in flashy EV showrooms ubiquitous in Chinese shopping malls. Yet it underpins the nation's EV sector. Or to put it the way a proud government official did recently: electric carmakers in the Yangtze River Delta that's home to Shanghai can get all the parts they need in a four-hour window. The US, EU and Canada may hope that tariffs will protect their EV industries so they can eventually compete with China on price. The extra duties may buy them some time, but they'll also need heavy dashes of vision, entrepreneurship and innovation to join China in the fast lane. The word is out: the elite of China's ruling Communist Party will meet from July 15 to 18 for a long-awaited gathering that usually charts the long-term course for economic policy. The so-called third plenum — a gathering of the party's Central Committee usually held every five years — will be closely watched by investors, economists and the rest of us for signs of policy pivots in the world's second-biggest economy. Four decades ago, China launched pioneering economic reforms at such a meeting. Then in 2013 – when Xi Jinping was just taking charge – it was the venue for a major easing of the one-child policy, partly over worries that workers were getting scarce. The event bringing together roughly 400 state leaders, ministers, armed forces chiefs, provincial bosses and top academics will be held at a military hotel in Beijing. Why this plenum was delayed from last year remains a mystery but the details of how China's government and paramount party work are usually pretty opaque. To make the picture a little clearer, we've pulled together a handy explainer – with diagrams! – detailing the key players and institutions running the world's No. 2 economy. Check it out here: This plenum comes as senior policymakers contend with a deep property downturn weighing on the economy, deflationary pressure and high youth unemployment. Beijing is also facing an international backlash against its surge of cheap exports, which has led to a wave of tariffs. China is playing its cards close to the chest on what this plenum will do. State media has been vague, reporting that it "will primarily examine issues related to further comprehensively deepening reform and advancing Chinese modernization." Andrew Swan, an asset manager at Man Group, the world's biggest publicly traded hedge fund firm, expects the plenum to introduce measures aimed at boosting consumption, hence reviving the sluggish stock market. Bloomberg Intelligence predicts China "will likely reiterate its aim of achieving technology self-sufficiency" to unleash "new productive forces," a favorite catchphrase of Xi's. This week, Xi signaled the great importance he places on the role of technology in China's future. He warned that "core technologies are controlled by others," and urged scientists to close that gap. Those comments followed reports that the Biden administration is considering even more curbs on China's access to chip technology used for artificial intelligence. The risk with the plenum is that expectations for big changes may surpass the actual outcomes. China has, after all, refrained from rolling out big gun stimulus measures to help the economy. Adopting a wait-and-see approach to the plenum may not be such a bad idea. |
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