Sunday, June 2, 2024

Next Africa Special: Zuma’s revenge

Jacob Zuma is back in South African politics six years after being ousted

Welcome to our special election edition. Sign up here to receive the regular twice-weekly newsletter on where the continent stands now — and where it's headed. 

In a tumultuous political career spanning more than six decades, Jacob Zuma has been charged with rape and contempt, and been dumped as both deputy president and president of South Africa.

He's bounced back every time.   

A party led by Zuma won almost 15% of the vote in May 29 elections just five months after being formed, stripping the African National Congress of its parliamentary majority for the first time since it freed the nation of apartheid three decades ago (it won 40%).

It's sweet revenge for the charismatic octogenarian.

A truck branded with the uMkhonto weSizwe Party logo. Photographer: Leon Sadiki/Bloomberg

Zuma led the country for almost nine scandal-marred years before the ANC forced him to quit in 2018 under threat of impeachment and replaced him with its new leader, Cyril Ramaphosa. 

Three years later, he was jailed for refusing to testify before a judicial panel investigating the endemic corruption that characterized his rule. He served less than two months before being released on medical parole. 

Zuma was acquitted in his rape trial in 2006, but is still trying to fend off charges that he took bribes from weapons dealers in the 1990s. He insists he's done nothing wrong and complained of a political witch hunt — an allegation he's never substantiated. 

The former ANC intelligence chief denies he has a vendetta against Ramaphosa and insists he remains a member of the party despite having been suspended.He says the ANC has lost its way and is neglecting the interests of poor Black South Africans.

The MKP wants mines, banks and land to be nationalized, and for unelected traditional chiefs to be given more power — positioning that resonates among his constituency and is a turnoff for investors and business.

A polling station in Soweto, Johannesburg. Photographer: Leon Sadiki/Bloomberg

The nation's top court ruled Zuma ineligible to stand for parliament because of his contempt conviction, effectively ruling him out of the running to reclaim the presidency. But he'll still wield considerable clout through the uMkhonto weSizwe Party, or MKP, especially in his home province of KwaZulu-Natal, where his cult-like following secured it almost half the vote. 

With the ANC needing the support of at least one large rival to continue governing Africa's biggest economy, the MKP is in contention. 

The makeup of the new administration will be formed over the next few days, with much horse trading still to come.

Zuma will have a prominent seat at the table, placing him close to the forefront of South African politics yet again. 

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News Roundup

The African National Congress to partnering with any of its rivals after South Africa's ruling party lost its national majority for the first time in 30 years. However, its Secretary General Fikile Mbalula stipulated any coalition will need to include Ramaphosa as its head.

Cyril Ramaphosa at an ANC rally in Johannesburg on May. 25. Photographer: Leon Sadiki/Bloomberg

South Africa's ruling party is girding for grueling talks with bitter rivals over the makeup a new government, after losing its parliamentary majority.

Ramaphosa is under pressure from his closest party allies to form a coalition with the main opposition Democratic Alliance after this week's crushing election blow, according to people familiar with the matter.

The Democratic Alliance retained its majority in the Western Cape province, which it has ruled since 2009.

The African National Congress was swept from control in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa's second-most populous province, where voters emphatically rejected it for Zuma's party.

Read this deep dive reporting about how apartheid's long shadow hung over the election, highlighted by frustration in predominantly Black townships over broken promises of equality

The business community has been shaken by the shock election result, which could see its partnership with the government crumble and a populist wave sweep aside belated programs to fix everything from power shortages to congested ports.

The election results have left investors swinging between anxiety over the permutations of a potential coalition and lingering hopes that it will usher in a market-friendly government.

South Africa's central bank left borrowing costs unchanged, delivering the widely expected verdict one day after the pivotal elections.

The Numbers

  • African National Congress — 40.2% of the national vote with 99.9% counted
  • Democratic Alliance — 21.8%
  • uMkhonto weSizwe Party — 14.6% 
  • Economic Freedom Fighters — 9.5% 
  • Inkatha Freedom Party — 3.9%

The final results will be released on Sunday evening. Following for more news on the Bloomberg Africa homepage.

The ANC's performance is its worst in any vote since 1994, and tops off a slow decline since Thabo Mbeki led it to a high of just shy of 70% in 2004.

Source: South Africa's electoral commission

What Now?

To retain power, the ANC will need to forge a partnership with one or more rivals, forcing it to embrace an unfamiliar world of messy trade-offs and difficult compromises over policies and appointments, with repercussions for citizens, businesses and investors alike. Here's what you need to know about the political shakeup

The president is chosen by the 400 members of the National Assembly, which must convene within 14 days of the results being declared. The ANC has to persuade about 40 MPs to side with it to secure another five-year term for its candidate. It doesn't have to be a formal coalition.

If the legislature fails to agree on a new president, the chief justice can order lawmakers to adjourn for no more than seven days and then resume voting. And if they still can't decide within 90 days of reconvening, fresh elections must be held.

Voters queue at a polling station in Cape Town's Langa township. Photographer: Dwayne Senior/Bloomberg

Whoever gets the majority in that vote can form a government. So, should the other parties band together, the ANC won't be in national power at all. That's extremely unlikely, though, as the mistrust across the political spectrum in South Africa is too wide to bridge.

A link up — whether it's formal or not — with either the DA or Zuma's MKP would give the ANC control, or an arrangement with a selection of smaller parties.

Click here to listen to our reporters discuss the options in an X Space discussion.

Quote of the Vote 

"It's a massive wake-up call for the ANC. They didn't keep reading the room. They assumed if they continuously tried taking this frivolous approach toward Zuma, he was just going away. He was going nowhere."
Sanusha Naidu
Research associate at the Institute for Global Dialogue

Video Vault

 

South Africa Election 2024 to Test Mandela's Legacy
Ramaphosa Casts Ballot in South Africa Election
Jacob Zuma Casts Vote in South Africa 
Godongwana: Stability or Chaos Is South Africa's Choice 
Cape Town Mayor: Impossible to Predict New Gov. Talks 
Malala: Ramaphosa's Last Few Years Have Been a Disaster 

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