Crypto News: Cash rate warning

Good morning, it's Ben here on a cool morning in Canberra. This is what's making news today.

Today's must-reads:
• No rate cuts till late 2025: Ex-RBA official
• Investors should buy Aussie dollar
• New Zealand flags new approach to welfare

Former RBA official Jonathan Kearns warned Australia's interest-rate settings are "a bit too low" to rapidly stamp out inflation. As a result, policy easing is only likely to begin in the second half of 2025, he said in an interview with Bloomberg on Thursday.

Investors should buy the Australian dollar versus currencies like euro and Swiss franc, a strategy that benefits from a tighter RBA policy and minimizes risks associated with the greenback, UBS says.

Economic growth will slow as stubborn inflation weighs on the Federal Reserve's ability to begin lowering borrowing costs, Blackstone President Jon Gray said at a Macquarie Australia Conference in Sydney.

New Zealand's government is returning to an explicitly data-driven approach to social welfare that it says will reduce dependence on state services and save taxpayers money, Finance Minister Nicola Willis said in Wellington.

Nicola Willis, New Zealand's finance minister. Photographer: Brent Lewin/Bloomberg

House Republicans delivered a much-needed, no-holds-barred rejection of Georgia Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene's power grab on Wednesday. Her public shaming was far too long in coming, writes Bloomberg Opinion's Patricia Lopez.

The stock market climbed to its highest level since early April on Thursday, extending a rebound that's been fueled by speculation the Federal Reserve will be able to cut interest rates this year. The S&P 500 topped 5,200, while the Nasdaq 100 rose 0.2%.

China's exports rose slightly more than expected in April in a boost for the economy. Exports increased 1.5% in dollar terms from a year earlier, reversing a drop in March, while imports climbed 8.4%, the customs administration said Thursday.

Yangshan Deepwater Port in Shanghai, China. Photographer: Qilai Shen/Bloomberg

The world's wheat supply is under strain from bad weather and war, reviving the specter of rising food costs. From soggy fields in western Europe to parched soil in Australia and Moscow's invasion holding back Ukrainian supplies, farmers are facing setbacks.

Indian stocks suffered their worst day in about four months as nervousness over the outcome of the ongoing general elections persisted. There's concern among traders that low voter turnout may result in a weaker-than-expected majority for Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

All times Sydney

• 8:30 a.m.: New Zealand April PMI
• 10:30 a.m.: Elon Musk's X Corp and the federal government return to court in Sydney

Tim Cook has transformed Apple since taking over as chief executive officer from Steve Jobs in 2011. But if it seems like a logical time for Cook to start planning for someone else to shape Apple's next chapter, the situation is complicated by the lack of candidates who are both ready immediately and likely to be a long-term successor.