Friday, March 1, 2024

Supply Lines: Chocolate sticker shock

Get ready to pay more for chocolate, find smaller bars on store shelves or buy new treats with no cocoa at all.They're among possible reperc

Get ready to pay more for chocolate, find smaller bars on store shelves or buy new treats with no cocoa at all.

They're among possible repercussions of cocoa's surge to a record-high price after bad weather and crop disease ravaged harvests in West Africa. The cost of beans has more than doubled in the past year and there doesn't look to be much chance of a respite any time soon. Major chocolatier Barry Callebaut this week warned that acute cocoa shortages will persist into next season.

Cocoa beans are collected at a rebagging facility. Photographer: Paul Ninson

What Does the Rally Mean for Consumers?

To cope with the increased cost, chocolate manufacturers could raise prices. But faced with limited room for more hikes, companies are resorting to measures including promoting products with less cocoa — like hazelnut-flavor bars, or a partial dip of chocolate instead of a full coating. Some cocoa butter is also being replaced with cheaper substitutes such as palm oil.

There's also the risk to demand. Consumers are most likely to cut back on chocolate and candy if inflation continues, behind only alcohol and makeup, according to a survey from September by consumer intelligence company NIQ.

Another Supply Headache

From the end of this year, the European Union will require companies to prove all the cocoa they import to the continent hasn't contributed to deforestation where it was grown. That means tracing bean from pod to port — not an easy task for the complex cocoa supply chain, particularly in places like Africa.

Cocoa changes hands multiple times during its journey to the EU and there are concerns the industry won't be able to track all supplies by the time the rules kick in. The looming deforestation regulation also covers palm oil, coffee, soy, timber and cattle.

Nicholas Larkin in London

Charted Territory

Baby milk | Soaring UK baby formula prices are drawing attention to an aspect of the business that producers would prefer consumers ignore: They're all fundamentally the same. (Read the full story here).

Today's Must Reads

  • A new wave of mobilization poses one of the severest challenges yet for Ukraine's farmers as the country faces a third year of war.
  • Demand for insect protein is expected to explode by the end of the decade as pet owners and farmers embrace bug-based feeds for animals.
  • Thailand plans to deploy 30 aircraft nationwide for cloud-seeding operations to induce artificial rain to battle air pollution and ease dry weather conditions in the main crop-growing areas.  
  • A senior Ukrainian official said Kyiv is prepared to limit surges in exports into the EU as a way to allay mounting concerns of Polish farmers after Warsaw threatened to temporarily shut the border for trade. 
  • Australia's Trade Minister Don Farrell is confident that a review of heavy tariffs on wine exports to China will be completed by the end of March, the latest test of improving relations between Beijing and Canberra.
  • Europe's largest fertilizer maker, Yara International, agreed to buy ammonia made using solar power from India's Acme Group in a deal that may spur activity in the fledgling renewable commodity.
  • A high court in Denmark ruled that Europe's biggest pork producer misled consumers by advertising its meat as "climate-controlled" in what is the Nordic country's first greenwashing verdict. 

On the Bloomberg Terminal

  • Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack wants Congress to support efforts to expand markets for growers in local communities and overseas as it crafts the 2024 farm bill, Bloomberg Government reports.
  • The second-half plunge in potash prices eased cost pressures for farmers, but risks are rising that they'll continue to cut applications this year, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.
  • Run SPLC after an equity ticker on Bloomberg to show critical data about a company's suppliers, customers and peers.
  • Use the AHOY function to track global commodities trade flows.
  • See DSET CHOKE for a dataset to monitor shipping chokepoints. 
  • For freight dashboards, see {BI RAIL}, {BI TRCK} and {BI SHIP} and {BI 3PLS}
  • Click HERE for automated stories about supply chains.
  • On the Bloomberg Terminal, type NH FWV for FreightWaves content.
  • See BNEF for BloombergNEF's analysis of clean energy, advanced transport, digital industry, innovative materials, and commodities.

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