Thursday, February 1, 2024

You've come a long way, Bailey

The Readout with Julian Harris

Hallelujah – the Bank of England has finally stopped threatening to hike interest rates. In today's update it dropped guidance that "further tightening would be required" if inflation remained super-sticky, and acknowledged the worst-kept secret in the City: that rates will probably start to come down quite soon.

All well and good, but there is – inevitably – a twist. The nine-person Monetary Policy Committee remains divided, with two members still insisting that Bank rate should be lifted to 5.5%. Furthermore, Threadneedle Street expects inflation to rebound a little even after "temporarily" dropping to its 2% target in the spring.

This gave the pound a boost as traders digested an update that was, overall, somewhat less dovish than expected. Cable, if you'll excuse the market jargon, jumped from $1.263 to $1.27 at the time of writing.

Andrew Bailey today, acting out the interest rate decision in charades Photographer: Hollie Adams/Bloomberg

My market-watching colleagues report that sterling is the best performing Group-of-10 currency against the dollar this year, and indeed it's worth remembering that the pound was below $1.21 as recently as October. So good news if you're a GBP bull – or if you're going on holiday any time soon.

But for those of us who would quite like mortgage rates to fall again, patience is required. While cost pressures have eased considerably, down from the double digits a year ago, Andrew Bailey is urging caution.

"We've come a long way," he told reporters this afternoon, with the characteristic sobriety of a central bank governor. "But we're not there yet."

If this is a pivot party, it's the kind of evening where you sip a lemonade, make some small talk, then leave by 9pm.

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What just happened

The stories you need to know about this evening

You know what you're getting

Bailey wasn't the only reassuringly boring person speaking in London today. Across town, Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves were addressing a few hundred business figures as part of Labour's ongoing charm offensive with the private sector.

Both were keen to make the right noises, with the shadow chancellor – a former Bank of England economist, no less – promising that Labour "will campaign as a pro-business party, and we will govern as a pro-business party," while Starmer said companies should be left to drive the economy rather than government trying "to run things from the center."

Keir Starmer Photographer: Jeff J Mitchell/Getty Images Europe

Beyond the rhetoric, the Labour chiefs pledged that corporation tax would not rise, and indeed that the rate would not frequently change as it has under various Conservative leaders. They also repeated commitments to tear into the planning system and reform the apprenticeship levy.

With his constant talk of "national renewal," "a partnership model," taskforces and frameworks, Starmer's technocratic speeches are hardly setting anyone's world on fire (I've watched two recently and am desperately glancing around for colleagues to take on the next one.) Yet after years of high drama and volatility from Westminster, the timing is good. Much like the electorate, business is probably in the mood for a spell of predictable tedium.

What we've been reading

It's royal blue and everything. Queen Elizabeth II's custom Range Rover is up for sale.

Losing pounds — and dollars. WeightWatchers' worst month ever wipes out obesity-drug gains.

In my day… Ban TikTok in school? Get rid of phones instead, argues Bloomberg Opinion's editorial board.

The big number

€150 million
Fiscal support pledged to French farmers, in a successful bid to end the "siege" of Paris.

UK wind farms overstate output, and we pay for it

One key story, every weekday

The Fallago Rig wind farm in Scotland Photographer: Lorna Mackay/Bloomberg

Dozens of British wind farms run by some of Europe's largest energy companies have routinely overestimated how much power they'll produce, adding millions of pounds a year to consumers' electricity bills, according to market records and interviews with power traders.

These extra costs are linked to a growing problem with Britain's outdated electricity network: On blustery days, too much wind power risks overloading the system, and the grid operator must respond by paying some firms not to generate. This "curtailment" costs consumers hundreds of millions of pounds each year.

Adding to that expense, some wind farm operators exaggerate how much energy they say they intend to produce, which boosts the payments they receive for turning off, according to nine people — traders, academics and market experts — most of whom agreed to discuss this controversial behavior only on condition of anonymity.

In effect, they said, the grid has paid some wind farms not to generate power that they wouldn't have produced anyway.

Read The Big Take.

Please send thoughts, tips and feedback to readout@bloomberg.net. You can follow Julian on X.

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