Hallelujah – the Bank of England has finally stopped threatening to hike interest rates. In today's update it dropped guidance that "further tightening would be required" if inflation remained super-sticky, and acknowledged the worst-kept secret in the City: that rates will probably start to come down quite soon.
All well and good, but there is – inevitably – a twist. The nine-person Monetary Policy Committee remains divided, with two members still insisting that Bank rate should be lifted to 5.5%. Furthermore, Threadneedle Street expects inflation to rebound a little even after "temporarily" dropping to its 2% target in the spring. This gave the pound a boost as traders digested an update that was, overall, somewhat less dovish than expected. Cable, if you'll excuse the market jargon, jumped from $1.263 to $1.27 at the time of writing. Andrew Bailey today, acting out the interest rate decision in charades Photographer: Hollie Adams/Bloomberg My market-watching colleagues report that sterling is the best performing Group-of-10 currency against the dollar this year, and indeed it's worth remembering that the pound was below $1.21 as recently as October. So good news if you're a GBP bull – or if you're going on holiday any time soon. But for those of us who would quite like mortgage rates to fall again, patience is required. While cost pressures have eased considerably, down from the double digits a year ago, Andrew Bailey is urging caution. "We've come a long way," he told reporters this afternoon, with the characteristic sobriety of a central bank governor. "But we're not there yet." If this is a pivot party, it's the kind of evening where you sip a lemonade, make some small talk, then leave by 9pm. Want this in your inbox each weekday? You can sign up here. |
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