Good Afternoon,
If the last year of price cuts and sluggish sales weren’t enough to tip off the market to the fact the EV bubble has burst, Tesla’s NASDAQ: TSLA Q4 results and outlook for 2024 should do it. The company isn’t ailing per se; it is still growing, but the Wild West days of ramping production to match sales growth are over. As great as the result could be, EVs have become a nightmare of problems for many users.
Tesla had a solid quarter regarding business stability, but growth is slowing, and profitability is ailing. The company reported $25.17 billion in net revenue for a gain of 3.5% compared to last year, 230 bps short of the consensus and the slowest pace in many quarters. Sales were positively impacted by volume and negatively impacted by pricing, highlighting issues within the industry; it’s harder than ever to grow sales within the EV market, and Tesla is warning that 2024 will be slow.
The price reductions also impacted the margin. The company’s adjusted EPS of $0.71 is down versus last year and short of the consensus despite solid top-line growth. The company expects to launch its next-generation manufacturing process soon and lower overall costs, but those effects may not be seen for several quarters at the earliest. Redwood, a mass-market car teased in the earnings call, wouldn’t be available until 2025, so it isn’t a catalyst now.
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