The latest moves in crypto markets, in context By Jamie Crawley, CoinDesk news reporter Was this newsletter forwarded to you? Sign up here. |
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It's Thursday! Here's what you need to know today in crypto: |
- Bitcoin claws back losses following Fed Chair comments.
- ARK Invest says 19.4% is optimal crypto portfolio allocation.
- Celsius will distribute $3 billion in crypto to creditors.
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Looking for the premier Bitcoin ETF? Look for Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF (Ticker: GBTC). GBTC is the world's largest spot bitcoin ETF with $26.6B in AUM as of 1/11/24. It is also the world's oldest Bitcoin fund, first created in 2013 to give investors secure and familiar access to Bitcoin. GBTC is managed by Grayscale, one of the only asset managers with a decade of experience operating a Bitcoin investment vehicle. Remember, Bitcoin investing begins with GBTC. Find ticker: GBTC in your brokerage account or ask your financial advisor today. Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (BTC) (the "Trust") has filed a registration statement (including a prospectus) with the SEC for the offering to which this communication relates. Before you invest, you should read the prospectus in that registration statement and other documents the Trust has filed with the SEC for more complete information about the Trust and this offering. You may get these documents for free by visiting EDGAR on the SEC Web site at www.sec.gov. Alternatively, the Trust or any authorized participant will arrange to send you the prospectus (when available) if you request it by calling (833) 903 - 2211 or by contacting Foreside Fund Services, LLC, Three Canal Plaza, Suite 100, Portland, Maine 04101. Foreside Fund Services, LLC is the Marketing Agent for the Trust. An investment in the Trust involves risks, including possible loss of principal. The Trust holds Bitcoin; however, an investment in the Trust is not a direct investment in Bitcoin. Extreme volatility of trading prices that many digital assets, including Bitcoin, have experienced in recent periods and may continue to experience, could have a material adverse effect on the value of GBTC and the shares could lose all or substantially all of their value. |
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CoinDesk 20 Index: 1,612 −1.7%
Bitcoin (BTC): $42,097 −1.4%
Ether (ETC): $2,269 −1.6%
S&P 500: 4,845.65 −1.6%
Gold: $2,049 +0.0%
Nikkei 225: $2,049 +0.0% |
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Bitcoin traded just above $42,000 in the European morning after Fed Chair Jerome Powell cooled hopes of an interest-rate cut in March yesterday. "The message from the Fed last night is that a March cut is not the base case, and they need to gain greater confidence that inflation will remain at these levels before moving," said Nick Chatters, a fixed income investment manager at Aegon Asset Management. "Having said that, confidence is building, and Chair Powell was open in communicating that a cut will come this year. No surprise in any of that." BTC dropped as low as $41,870 on Wednesday night, and while it has ticked slowly upward, it remains some way short of $43,000, where it started the week. The CoinDesk 20 Index, which measures the performance of the top digital assets, is down around 1.7% in the last 24 hours. |
ARK Invest said the optimal allocation of crypto in one's portfolio is just under 20% in its annual Big Ideas report. "Over the last seven years, bitcoin has registered an annualized return far surpassing that of major asset classes, with an optimal allocation rising to 19.4% in 2023," the Cathie Wood-helmed firm wrote. "Our analysis suggests that allocating 19.4% to bitcoin in 2023 would have maximized a portfolio's risk-adjusted returns." The optimum allocation was 0.5% in 2015 and 6.2% in 2022. Bitcoin's low five-year correlation of 0.27 with traditional assets underscores its diversification benefits, and even minimal allocations by institutional investors could notably influence its price, given the vast $250 trillion global investable asset base, ARK added. Cryptocurrency lender Celsius will distribute $3 billion in crypto to its creditors as it emerges from bankruptcy. The crypto will be distributed via Coinbase and PayPal. As part of the deal, creditors will also get a stake in the newly formed Ionic Digital Inc. mining operation, which is expected to become a publicly traded company subject to regulatory approval. Celsius' bankruptcy process also saw it make a $4.7 billion settlement with U.S. authorities related to allegations of fraud by former CEO Alex Mashinsky. Mashinsky was released on a $40 million bond, and a court ordered his banking and real estate assets frozen. His trial is scheduled for September 2024. |
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Grayscale is the world's largest crypto asset manager*. We enable investors to access the digital economy through a family of regulated and future-forward investment products. Our decade-long track record and deep expertise as a crypto-specialist means that investors, advisors, and allocators turn to us for both investment insights and innovative products. Crypto investing begins with Grayscale. *By AUM as of 1/16/24. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal. |
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Market Insight: It May Be Time to Focus on John Bollinger's Price Bands Again |
Just over three months ago, an indicator called "Bollinger bandwidth" based on bitcoin's weekly price changes signaled a volatility boom. Sure enough, volatility picked up prior to the recent debut of spot BTC ETFs in the U.S. Now, the monthly chart Bollinger bandwidth has carved out a pattern that preluded bitcoin's near-vertical rallies of 2016 and late 2020. The bandwidth is the difference between the level two standard deviations above an asset's 20-period simple moving average price and the level two standard deviations below. A narrow width is akin to a tightly compressed spring about to make a big move in either direction. Since inception, 1% has been a major low for bitcoin's monthly chart Bollinger bandwidth, from which it recently bounced, in a positive development for bitcoin bulls. However, this simply signals a major price move – it does not guarantee a specific direction. |
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- The chart shows the 24-hour change in cumulative volume delta (CVD) in futures and perpetual futures tied to the top 25 cryptocurrencies by market value.
- Except for BTC, TRX, ATOM and XMR, the CVD has been negative for most coins, indicating a net selling pressure.
- On Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell pushed back against bets of a U.S. rate cut as soon as March, sending the dollar index to seven-week highs.
- Source: Velo Data
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Disclaimer: The information presented in this message is intended as a news item that provides a brief summary of various events and developments that affect, or that might in the future affect, the value of one or more of the cryptocurrencies described above. The information contained in this message, and any information liked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. The information presented herein is accurate only as of its date, and it was not prepared by a research analyst or other investment professional. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency before deciding to purchase or sell any such instruments. |
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