Welcome to Balance of Power, bringing you the latest in global politics. If you haven't yet, sign up here. Just months after Wagner mercenary group boss Yevgeny Prigozhin died in a mysterious mid-air explosion, Russia is pursuing an even bigger military footprint in Africa to challenge the US and its allies. Emboldened by a French retreat from the region, Russia's new Africa Corps aims to put together a force numbering up to 20,000 at a string of bases to replace Wagner forces over the next half year. That may be ambitious, with Russia also looking to draft 250,000 new volunteers to fight in its war in Ukraine. But even a smaller contingent would likely dwarf Wagner's presence in Africa, which never exceeded several thousand fighters. Formalizing Russia's one-time covert activities in the continent by swapping private contractors for regular armed forces is a double-edged sword. Unlike the free-wheeling activities of Prigozhin, who fell foul of the Kremlin with his armed mutiny in Russia last year, the Africa Corps cements Russia's presence through government-to-government agreements. That removes the cloak of deniability that allowed Moscow to distance itself from accusations of war crimes and other abuses leveled against Wagner troops. So far, Russia's regional allies are content. In the Central African Republic, security cooperation with Moscow has "intensified" since Prigozhin's death, according to a senior adviser to President Faustin-Archange Touadera. In Burkina Faso, where Wagner's been active as well as in Libya and Mali, some 100 Russian troops arrived last week to provide security for military junta chief Ibrahim Traore. Next is Niger, where France withdrew its troops and closed its embassy last year. Still, for now the military rulers are betting on two horses by keeping open a US base used for drone attacks on militants in the Sahel region. However striking Russia's facelift in Africa is, one thing won't change — Moscow will preserve Wagner's lucrative business operations, including mining for gold and diamonds.— Henry Meyer Prigozhin in Rostov-on-Don, Russia, in June 2023. Photograph: The Wagner Group/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images |
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