Crypto News: A crucial vote for climate

Today's newsletter looks at the European Parliament elections, which are getting less attention than the US presidential race, but arguably have more consequences for the climate. You can also read the story on Bloomberg.com. For unlimited access to climate news, please subscribe.

By Victoria Cuming

At the recent World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, politicians and business leaders shared their views on how success for Donald Trump in the US presidential race this November could impact the global energy transition. Yet a bigger threat to more ambitious greener policies this year may be the result of votes taking place in 27 nations across Europe.

The European Parliament elections this June have the potential to cause a disturbance in what has been one of the strongest forces for climate action. While the Parliament in recent years has pushed through some of the world's most aggressive decarbonization plans — including the EU's 55% emissions-reduction target for 2030 — there are signs that voters are leaning toward candidates representing the more climate-skeptic right. All of this comes at a crucial time in the implementation of the bloc's net-zero plan.

BloombergNEF highlights these risks in our recent report on the implications for elections across the world (including the US).

Current polls suggest some of the best advocates for climate policy, the center-left Greens-European Free Alliance and liberal Renew Europe, will suffer major losses. This could prompt the center-right European People's Party, which will likely remain the biggest group, to create an informal coalition with its right-wing allies, the European Conservatives and Reformists, and Identity and Democracy, at least for certain ballots. The three groups have been the least supportive of green policies over the last two terms.

The shift to the right reflects trends at the member state level too, as shown by recent elections in the Netherlands and Italy, and growing support for far-right parties in France, Germany and Sweden, among others.

The uncertainty around Parliamentary elections this year creates additional time pressure for the implementation of the EU's Green Deal – the region's transformation plan designed to achieve a net-zero and nature-positive economy by 2050. While the top-level ambition has been set – and is unlikely to be changed substantively – the bloc needs to pass a raft of more detailed policies and regulations to ensure that plan is achieved. The EU's governing institutions will therefore seek to push through outstanding bills before the June elections. These include proposals on the energy performance of buildings, CO2 standards for new heavy-duty vehicles, plans on gene editing and a certification framework for carbon removals.

But the EU policy most likely to attract attention in the next six months will be the new 2040 emissions-reduction target, due to be announced in February. Commissioners for the Green Deal (Maroš Šefčovič) and Climate (Wopke Hoekstra) have advocated a goal for a 90% cut on 1990 levels, which would be in line with recommendations from the European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change. It remains to be seen if this target can get backing from EU governing bodies or if the commissioners will be around long enough to see it enshrined in law. Their terms are due to finish at the end of this year unless they're reappointed.

The rest of the world will be taking note of the new goals the EU sets for itself. The bloc has played a key role in pushing for more ambitious commitments and reaching compromises in the international climate negotiations and the new Just Energy Transition Partnerships with emerging markets like South Africa and Indonesia. It has also provided considerable green finance for developing countries, accounting for 45% of the support pledged to the United Nations' Green Climate Fund.

If the shift to the right materializes, the EU risks becoming less supportive of ambitious climate and energy policy at home and abroad. National and subnational policymakers will therefore need to step up, or the bloc risks losing its climate credentials and missing its 2030 and net-zero targets.

Victoria Cuming is head of global policy at BloombergNEF – Bloomberg's primary research service covering clean energy, advanced transport, digital industry and innovative materials.

You can hear Victoria Cuming's outlook for elections globally on the latest episode of the Switched On podcast with Dana Perkins.

35%

This is the percentage of voters in the US who said they were unwilling to pay anything personally to address global warming, according to a recent survey.

"I think the odds of the IRA being repealed are pretty small. Some of the basic federal support we've done for climate action will continue, and I think that's very important."

Liane Randolph

California Air Resources Board chair

California's top environmental regulator said it's unlikely that the Inflation Reduction Act's climate-focused tax credits will be undone, even if Donald Trump recaptures the White House in November.

A dozen glistening storage tanks on a windswept island in the North Sea are one of the few visible signs of a costly experiment aimed at making a tiny fraction of Europe's industrial pollution disappear.

Part of a $2.6 billion network, the facility on Norway's Blomoyna is set to pump climate-warming carbon dioxide from manufacturing sites in the Netherlands and elsewhere into an untouched saline aquifer deep below the seabed.

While the cost of offshore storage is more expensive than onshore, countries like Germany are counting on the technology as its industrial base struggles with challenges from high energy costs to Chinese competition.

The receiving dock at the Northern Lights carbon capture and storage project at Blomoyna, Norway, on Jan. 19. Photographer: Andrea Gjestvang

The US added almost 1,100 new EV stations since summer. Fast-charging infrastructure for electric cars grew by 16% in the second half of 2023, according to a Bloomberg Green analysis of federal data.

The UK is unprepared for heat waves. The government is doing little to prepare for hotter summers and the dangerous consequences associated with higher temperatures, which are predicted to become more frequent, according to a key parliamentary committee.

Climate change is behind a surge in cholera. The Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention, the continent's chief health advisory body, has tied the worst outbreak of the disease in three years to climate change, saying adverse weather is raising the risk of it.

By Brian K. Sullivan

The first of two large moisture streams are coming ashore in Northern California and will spread rain further south through Thursday.

Northern California will likely receive 3 to 5 inches (7.6 to 12.7 cm) of rain, while central areas are due to get 2 to 4 inches and further south will see 1 to 3 inches, said Marc Chenard, a senior branch forecaster at the US Weather Prediction Center.

"It is going to slide down the coast as we go through today into tomorrow," Chenard said. "It is enough for some flooding impacts, especially along the coast and central valley today into tomorrow."

The streams of moisture, known as atmospheric rivers, are swirling off the Pacific Ocean and can bring beneficial rain and snow or devastating floods depending on their strength and speed. The first system is forecast to move quickly, reducing some of its destructive power, but the outlook for the second one that will arrive Sunday is less sure.