Friday, December 1, 2023

Wall Street Breakfast: Watch Till The End

Montana was set to become the first state in the nation to ban TikTok, which is owned by the Chinese tech giant ByteDance (BDNCE), but it looks like the move is running into familiar roadblocks. Federal Judge Donald Molloy has blocked the bill set to go into effect on Jan. 1, 2024, saying the measure "violates the Constitution in more ways than one" and "oversteps state power." While individual users would not have been punished, the law could have imposed fines of $10,000 on any "entity" - namely the app stores of Apple (AAPL) and Google (GOOG, GOOGL), or TikTok itself - each time someone was "offered the ability" to access or download the TikTok app.Preliminary injunction: "Despite the State's attempt to defend SB 419 as a consumer protection bill, the current record leaves little doubt that Montana's legislature and Attorney General were more interested in targeting China's ostensible role in TikTok than with protecting Montana consumers," Judge Molloy wrote in the 48-page filing. "While there may be a public interest in protecting Montanan consumers, the state has not shown how this TikTok bill does that. This is especially apparent in that the same legislature enacted an entirely separate law that purports to broadly protect consumers' digital data and privacy. Users are [also] deprived of communicating by their preferred means of speech, and thus First Amendment scrutiny is appropriate."Response from Montana: "The judge indicated several times that the analysis could change as the case proceeds and the State has the opportunity to present a full factual record. We look forward to presenting the complete legal argument to defend the law that protects Montanans from the Chinese Communist Party obtaining and using their data."Response from TikTok: "We are pleased the judge rejected this unconstitutional law and hundreds of thousands of Montanans can continue to express themselves, earn a living, and find community on TikTok."Former President Donald Trump already sought to ban TikTok and force a sale of its U.S. business to an American company, and while a transaction with Oracle (ORCL) almost went through in 2020, the lawsuits piled up and an injunction was granted to prevent the app from being outlawed. The Biden administration later revoked the planned ban, ordering a national security review in its place, but Chinese tensions and data privacy concerns eventually swept both sides of the aisle and led to a notable House hearing in March. However, Congress has passed a bill to outlaw TikTok on federal devices, as well as a probe from CFIUS, while there has also been proposed legislation to ban the app in the U.S. (note that all American social media networks are blocked in China).Go deeper: When things heated up earlier this year, many SA analysts commented on how restrictions on TikTok could impact rivals like Instagram Reels (META), YouTube Shorts (GOOG, GOOGL) and Snapchat Spotlight (SNAP). "This ban, if it materializes, is more about tomorrow than today for the likes of Meta Platforms," wrote Tradevestor, in an article entitled, What A TikTok Ban Could Mean. Others, like Bluesea Research, explored what competition or a ban would mean for Google (see Global Trends Provide A Massive Tailwind), as well as Julian Lin, Investing Group Leader of Best Of Breed Growth Stocks, on what effects the developments were having on Snap (read Risks Are Rising But Stock Is Cheap).
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Montana was set to become the first state in the nation to ban TikTok, which is owned by the Chinese tech giant ByteDance (BDNCE), but it looks like the move is running into familiar roadblocks. Federal Judge Donald Molloy has blocked the bill set to go into effect on Jan. 1, 2024, saying the measure "violates the Constitution in more ways than one" and "oversteps state power." While individual users would not have been punished, the law could have imposed fines of $10,000 on any "entity" - namely the app stores of Apple (AAPL) and Google (GOOG, GOOGL), or TikTok itself - each time someone was "offered the ability" to access or download the TikTok app.

Preliminary injunction: "Despite the State's attempt to defend SB 419 as a consumer protection bill, the current record leaves little doubt that Montana's legislature and Attorney General were more interested in targeting China's ostensible role in TikTok than with protecting Montana consumers," Judge Molloy wrote in the 48-page filing. "While there may be a public interest in protecting Montanan consumers, the state has not shown how this TikTok bill does that. This is especially apparent in that the same legislature enacted an entirely separate law that purports to broadly protect consumers' digital data and privacy. Users are [also] deprived of communicating by their preferred means of speech, and thus First Amendment scrutiny is appropriate."

Response from Montana: "The judge indicated several times that the analysis could change as the case proceeds and the State has the opportunity to present a full factual record. We look forward to presenting the complete legal argument to defend the law that protects Montanans from the Chinese Communist Party obtaining and using their data."

Response from TikTok: "We are pleased the judge rejected this unconstitutional law and hundreds of thousands of Montanans can continue to express themselves, earn a living, and find community on TikTok."

Former President Donald Trump already sought to ban TikTok and force a sale of its U.S. business to an American company, and while a transaction with Oracle (ORCL) almost went through in 2020, the lawsuits piled up and an injunction was granted to prevent the app from being outlawed. The Biden administration later revoked the planned ban, ordering a national security review in its place, but Chinese tensions and data privacy concerns eventually swept both sides of the aisle and led to a notable House hearing in March. However, Congress has passed a bill to outlaw TikTok on federal devices, as well as a probe from CFIUS, while there has also been proposed legislation to ban the app in the U.S. (note that all American social media networks are blocked in China).

Go deeper: When things heated up earlier this year, many SA analysts commented on how restrictions on TikTok could impact rivals like Instagram Reels (META), YouTube Shorts (GOOG, GOOGL) and Snapchat Spotlight (SNAP). "This ban, if it materializes, is more about tomorrow than today for the likes of Meta Platforms," wrote Tradevestor, in an article entitled, What A TikTok Ban Could Mean. Others, like Bluesea Research, explored what competition or a ban would mean for Google (see Global Trends Provide A Massive Tailwind), as well as Julian Lin, Investing Group Leader of Best Of Breed Growth Stocks, on what effects the developments were having on Snap (read Risks Are Rising But Stock Is Cheap).

     
Automotive
Traders did not seem so impressed with the Cybertruck launch event at Tesla's (TSLA) Gigafactory in Austin. Shares fell 1.7% during the regular session on Thursday and dropped another 2.1% AH, with the electric pickup needing to prove itself before getting a final round of applause. Starting prices of the futuristic vehicle will start at $60,990, more than 50% higher than quoted when it was first unveiled in 2019. The base edition will also only be available in 2025, while many of the touted specs like 0-60 in 2.6 seconds, 130 MPH top speed, and beastly torque and horsepower, will only be offered on its most high-end variant known as the "Cyberbeast." Range also fell short of the originally promised 500 miles and would only reach close to there via a range extender that takes up a third of the truck bed. (254 comments)
     
Healthcare

Thought the COVID vaccine controversy was over? Not yet. Texas is suing Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) over claims the company made about its coronavirus jab, as well as statements that called it "95% effective." According to the suit, Pfizer expanded its "deception campaign across several fronts," while "Americans were given the impression that Pfizer's vaccine would end the coronavirus pandemic." Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton is seeking more than $10M in fines for deceptive marketing and a court order barring the company from publicly speaking about the vaccine's efficacy. Pfizer, which reported more than $74B of revenue in 2021/22 related to COVID immunizations, responded that its "representations were accurate, science-based, and helped protect against severe COVID-19 outcomes, including hospitalization and death." (4 comments)

     
Energy

U.S. crude oil surrendered early gains and fell more than 2% Thursday, even after OPEC+ announced some member nations agreed to voluntary cuts approaching 2M bbl/day starting in January. Traders were disappointed by the smaller-than-expected numbers and lack of details on quota enforcement.  At least 1.3M bbl/day of the cuts were also an extension of the voluntary reductions that Saudi Arabia and Russia already had in place, sparking skepticism over whether they will actually be delivered. Meanwhile, Angola already rejected its new output target, saying it will continue pumping as usual, while the biggest news may have been the addition of Brazil. (60 comments)

     
Today's Markets
In Asia, Japan -0.1%. Hong Kong -1.1%. China +0.1%. India +0.7%.
In Europe, at midday, London +0.6%. Paris +0.4%. Frankfurt +0.7%.
Futures at 6:30, Dow +0.1%. S&P flat. Nasdaq -0.1%. Crude +0.2% to $76.10. Gold +0.2% to $2061.50. Bitcoin +2.2% to $38,632.
Ten-year Treasury Yield -1 bps to 4.34%
Today's Economic Calendar
What else is happening...
November rally: Dow (DJI) notches highest close in nearly two years.

Ford (F) updates investors with guidance on UAW deal impact.

Uber (UBER) could get the S&P 500 Index call-up today.

Disney (DIS) brings back dividend after more than three-year hiatus.

... Activist investor Nelson Peltz will seek seats on DIS board.

Walgreens (WBA) tool to help customers save on prescription drugs.

AbbVie (ABBV) to buy cancer drugmaker ImmunoGen (IMGN) for $10B.

Ulta Beauty (ULTA) takes off on quarterly beats, updated guidance.

Occidental (OXY) jet visits Buffett's Omaha for second time this month.

Heating up in 2024? Panera Brands has confidentially filed for IPO.
Seeking Alpha's Wall Street Breakfast Podcast
Seeking Alpha's Wall Street Breakfast podcast brings you all the news you need to know for your market day. Released by 8:00 AM ET each morning, it is a quick listen that you can put on as you get ready to start your working day.
 

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