Thursday, November 30, 2023

Next China: Trust deficit

Beijing has a trust problem.

Hello, this is Allen Wan in Shanghai.

What a difference a year makes.

Last November, I was covering the massive street protests against Covid Zero in this city and wondered along with the demonstrators if the lockdowns, mass testing and mask wearing would ever end.

Fast forward to now and all I want for this Christmas is for subway riders to be required to put on masks as outbreaks of mycoplasma pneumoniae, or "walking pneumonia," become the latest health scare out of China to capture the world's attention.

Children and their parents wait at a hospital in Beijing on Nov. 23. Photographer: JADE GAO/AFP

The Chinese government is saying there is nothing major to worry about. When asked by the World Health Organization about reports of widespread clusters of undiagnosed pneumonia in children, health authorities said the uptick in sick people was due to known pathogens such as influenza, rhinovirus, RSV and mycoplasma.

No new germs have been found, they said. And so far, no deaths have been reported.

That's probably little comfort to parents who have had to wait several hours in hospitals in Beijing and other cities in the north for their sick children to see a doctor. The scenes of overcrowded hallways and children on intravenous infusions have brought back memories of the early days of Covid, which emerged as a mysterious pneumonia.

The truth is, mycoplasma is not unusual. It is a common pathogen that causes pneumonia among children aged five or above, and it has triggered epidemics in China every two-to-four years.

While it tends to cause only mild colds in older kids and adults with robust immune systems, younger children are prone to develop pneumonia — creating concern on what to do once they get it. China has the world's highest incidence of mycoplasma that's resistant to a class of antibiotic called macrolides. Up to 80% of cases in kids don't respond to the commonly prescribed azithromycin and similar drugs.

Oddly, China appears to be the only country facing a major mycoplasma outbreak. The US and much of Europe are dealing with the flu and RSV. One study showed mycoplasma was subdued in China for almost two years by Covid countermeasures that have since been lifted.

Children and their parents wait at a hospital in Beijing on Nov. 23. Photographer: JADE GAO/AFP

So that begs the question: Why is the world's attention focused on China, when other countries have experienced similar surges in respiratory disease after dropping pandemic restrictions?

In a nutshell, Beijing is suffering from a trust deficit, Bloomberg Opinion columnist F.D. Flam points out.

After stonewalling on the deadly SARS outbreak many years earlier, the Chinese government showed during the Covid pandemic its inability to be transparent on issues of global concern. It was slow to warn the world about the dangers of that disease, while possibly destroying evidence about the virus' origins.

Chinese authorities may finally be learning from their past mistakes. During this current outbreak, the health ministry urged local authorities to increase the number of fever clinics. A State Council taskforce ordered local governments to be better prepared for outbreaks by using temperature checks at borders and stronger management of schools and nursing homes.

These measures, though, may fall short in the months ahead. Health authorities say that even with the surge in mycoplasma-caused pneumonia in children showing signs of ebbing, other respiratory illnesses are likely to hit the broader population hard during the mainland's first winter without Covid restrictions.

In the meantime, wearing a mask on the subway and in congested areas would certainly help. It's just a question of whether a public wary about any hint of measures that evoke pandemic restrictions will want to take that step.

National Champion

Huawei has come back to life.

Less than five years after US sanctions nearly crippled the Chinese technology giant, its Mate 60 smartphone — powered by a homegrown high-tech semiconductor — is flying off the shelves and hurting Apple iPhone sales in China.

That success is helping Huawei's business partners buck the larger trend of a terrible year for equities in China. Firms that work with the tech company have enjoyed massive stock gains.

Huawei's change of fortunes can be traced back to Beijing's moves to counter Washington's efforts to limit China's development of next-generation tech. 

A teardown conducted for Bloomberg News found most components in the Mate 60 were made in China.

While Huawei founder Ren Zhengfei has in the past said his private company had no special standing with the government, that seems to have shifted in recent years. 

The key change: It decided to accept massive government support to the tune of around $30 billion to help it build chip fabrication facilities. Huawei moved into semiconductor production last year, and the government in return asked the company to help smaller firms in strategic areas of the chip supply chain.

In effect, the Chinese government has made Huawei the captain of the government's efforts to develop a self-sufficient chip industry, people familiar with the matter said. It's the rare national champion with the grit, scale and technological prowess to succeed.

Bloomberg News found that the US-sanctioned firm is increasingly funding and lending engineering expertise to a group that includes optical specialists, chip equipment developers and chemical manufacturers, without disclosing its involvement.

The truth is Beijing doesn't have to establish self-sufficiency at each step of the supply chain. The key is to create domestic alternatives at four or five steps of the process where the US and its allies can choke off supplies, said Clifford Kurz, an analyst with S&P Global Ratings.

Huawei denied that the government is giving it support to develop chip technologies.

"Huawei is now the centerpoint," said Kendra Schaefer, a partner at Beijing-based consultancy Trivium China. "The export controls have pushed the state and industry together in a way we haven't seen before."

Collaborating with the government poses its unique set of challenges, including pressure to get involved in gamesmanship between US and China. Huawei timed the release of its new smartphone to coincide with US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo's visit to China in part because of direct encouragement from a senior official at the top of the regime, according to a person familiar with the situation.

It was time to show some muscle, the person said.

Huawei denied that government officials had asked for the Mate 60 phone to be introduced sooner than originally planned.

Wake-up Call

$56 billion
That's one estimate for how much investors have lost from the downfall of China's embattled shadow banking giant Zhongzhi, which now faces a criminal probe. It's a wake-up call for wealthy Chinese investors.

'Old Friend'

Henry Kissinger, the most powerful US Secretary of State in the postwar era, died this week at the age of 100.

But his legacy lives on in countries like China, which praised Kissinger for building ties between the two economic superpowers.

"It is a tremendous loss for both our countries and the world," Xie Feng, Beijing's ambassador to Washington, wrote on X, the social media site formerly known as Twitter. Kissinger "will always remain alive in the hearts of the Chinese people as a most valued old friend."

While he earned praise for his role in opening China to the West and bringing about détente with the Soviet Union, Kissinger was often vilified for his strategies to end the Vietnam War and contain Communist countries during the 1970s.

Henry Kissinger, former US secretary of state Photographer: Takaaki Iwabu/Bloomberg

In Vietnam, Nixon and Kissinger raised the stakes with hard-line military gestures in a bid to secure a more favorable peace deal for the US-backed South Vietnamese government.

Critics claimed the Nixon administration had needlessly prolonged the war as the fall of Saigon in 1975 rendered the cease-fire agreement almost meaningless.

And in Latin America, Kissinger was embroiled in scandal over his alleged role in assassination plots. Keen to rein in Communist influence in countries such as Chile and Argentina, he was accused of condoning ruthless methods to prevent Marxist rule.

"Henry Kissinger leaves a complex legacy, with dark chapters for many people in the world," Bloomberg Opinion columnist Andreas Kluth wrote. "But he did a lot for his adopted as for his native country."

All told, his life is the stuff of legend.

Kissinger, a Jew, fled Nazi Germany as a teen, studied at Harvard, served in US infantry during World War II and rose to become secretary of state under President Richard Nixon. He often overshadowed his own boss by rubbing shoulders with Washington's high-society Georgetown set and dating actresses such as Candice Bergen and Shirley MacLaine.

Henry Kissinger with Xi Jinping in Beijing in July. Source: -/AFP

Post-government service, Kissinger remained as relevant. The former diplomat held court with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Beijing just four months ago. That burnished his role as an important go-between during a particularly tense time in a relationship that Kissinger had built up.

Underscoring Kissinger's significance to people in China, news of the former diplomat's death was one of the most discussed topics on the Weibo social media site on Thursday, with some 310 million views.

Each weekday, The Big Take podcast brings you one story — one big, important story from Bloomberg's global newsroom. Subscribe and listen on  iHeartApple and  Spotify.

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