Wednesday, November 8, 2023

How do you solve a problem like Suella?

How do you solve a problem like Suella?

When Rishi Sunak appointed Suella Braverman to one of the UK's so-called great offices of state just over a year ago, it was seen as both a reward for backing him to be leader and a neat way of keeping sceptics on the right of his party in check. She could say things as Home Secretary some Tories think voters like but are too distasteful for a prime minister.

But her comment over the weekend that homeless people are sleeping rough as a "lifestyle choice" triggered outrage across the political spectrum and led to Conservative fears that Braverman is re-toxifying the party at a key moment ahead of a general election. Her decision to label pro-Palestinian protests "hate marches" has also ruffled Tory feathers.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak reacts as opposition Labour leader Keir Starmer says Suella Braverman is overseeing a "divisive brand of politics." Source: UK Parliament

Braverman's relationship with Sunak, who many expect to order a Cabinet reshuffle sooner rather than later to try to reboot his unpopular administration, is under intense scrutiny. Just a few months ago, Sunak's allies were saying Braverman "performs a function." People familiar with the matter say it's now more of an active debate where she fits on the asset-liability spectrum.

The decision to keep or jettison Braverman is a potentially seismic one for Sunak. Leaving her in the post likely means 12 months of what many Tories suspect is really her leadership bid dominating political discourse. Casting her aside – which may be what she actually wants – creates a martyr for the vocal right-wing Tory fringe to rally around. Tory MPs are already discussing how they could rally behind a centrist candidate to stop Braverman becoming future leader.

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How do you solve a problem like Suella?

Where Braverman stands in Sunak's thinking has been the subject of Westminster gossip all year, intensifying as her rhetoric became more strident. Her comments on immigration – starting with "reservations" about a trade deal with India because it would mean more people overstaying their visas – have morphed into a recent tirade about the failure of British multiculturalism and an alt-right-style warning that a "hurricane" of uncontrolled migration was on the way to Britain.

Yet while her language has resulted in behind-the scenes bickering between aides, none of her interventions had triggered particular alarm in 10 Downing Street. It's not an unusual political balancing act to let Braverman win over the party base while allowing Sunak to still try to appeal to more moderate voters.

But that calculation changes when a vast swathe of the political spectrum protests, which is what happened over Braverman's remarks on homelessness. Cabinet ministers including Sunak have spent the last four days –or eight news cycles - distancing themselves from the comments. 

"It's not just the rhetoric that's alienating voters — the fact that Braverman has so far not delivered on substantially bringing down the numbers of migrants or deporting illegal immigrants to Rwanda for offshore processing means that she seems like another politician making promises they can't keep," Scarlett Maguire, director of pollsters J.L. Partners, told me. "She is now unpopular not just with 58% of the public as a whole but 48% of Conservative 2019 voters and 50% of pro-Brexit leavers too."

The government's ability to cut illegal migration may hinge on a Supreme Court decision about whether its plan to deport migrants to Rwanda is lawful. Some officials think the court will find it isn't, which will likely trigger a flashpoint with Braverman over whether to take the UK out of the European Convention on Human Rights.

Whether that conversation takes place within government, or with Braverman relegated to causing trouble on the backbenches, could have major implications for Sunak heading into an election campaign. Braverman, for Sunak, is always a gamble.

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What we've been reading

Priced outThe Russian property boom in Dubai appears to be over as Russian purchases in the emirate continue to slow. 

Sanctions and the city. The UK government sanctions a trader linked to Russian oil-trading in a bid to stop cash flowing to Moscow. 

Equality. Citigroup ordered to pay $25.9 million for discriminating against credit-card applicants the bank identified as Armenian American.

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