Where Braverman stands in Sunak's thinking has been the subject of Westminster gossip all year, intensifying as her rhetoric became more strident. Her comments on immigration – starting with "reservations" about a trade deal with India because it would mean more people overstaying their visas – have morphed into a recent tirade about the failure of British multiculturalism and an alt-right-style warning that a "hurricane" of uncontrolled migration was on the way to Britain. Yet while her language has resulted in behind-the scenes bickering between aides, none of her interventions had triggered particular alarm in 10 Downing Street. It's not an unusual political balancing act to let Braverman win over the party base while allowing Sunak to still try to appeal to more moderate voters. But that calculation changes when a vast swathe of the political spectrum protests, which is what happened over Braverman's remarks on homelessness. Cabinet ministers including Sunak have spent the last four days –or eight news cycles - distancing themselves from the comments. "It's not just the rhetoric that's alienating voters — the fact that Braverman has so far not delivered on substantially bringing down the numbers of migrants or deporting illegal immigrants to Rwanda for offshore processing means that she seems like another politician making promises they can't keep," Scarlett Maguire, director of pollsters J.L. Partners, told me. "She is now unpopular not just with 58% of the public as a whole but 48% of Conservative 2019 voters and 50% of pro-Brexit leavers too." The government's ability to cut illegal migration may hinge on a Supreme Court decision about whether its plan to deport migrants to Rwanda is lawful. Some officials think the court will find it isn't, which will likely trigger a flashpoint with Braverman over whether to take the UK out of the European Convention on Human Rights. Whether that conversation takes place within government, or with Braverman relegated to causing trouble on the backbenches, could have major implications for Sunak heading into an election campaign. Braverman, for Sunak, is always a gamble. |
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