Friday, October 27, 2023

Yet another potential crisis

Washington is watching a potential conflict in the South China Sea

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Thousands of miles from the wars playing out in Ukraine and Gaza, another potential conflict is brewing in the South China Sea that's caught US President Joe Biden's attention.

China and the Philippines, a US treaty ally, have been at each other's throats over a dilapidated World War II-era ship that for decades has served as Manila's lone guardian in the Second Thomas Shoal, which both nations claim as their own. The problem is the vessel is falling apart.

Manila has sent more ships to reinforce the outpost, efforts that have been met with water cannon fire and — as of this weekend — collisions with Chinese ships as they made a beeline for the grounded vessel known as the BRP Sierra Madre.

Both countries have since accused one another of infringing on their respective territorial sovereignty. Neither side is backing down.

It's a story of David and Goliath proportions — that is, if David had another Goliath at his back. In this case, Biden has been unequivocal in his stance, saying the US has an "ironclad" defense commitment to the Philippines. "Any attack on the Filipino aircraft, vessels, or armed forces will invoke our Mutual Defense Treaty," he warned.

The latest tensions have the potential to upend US-China relations yet again ahead of an expected meeting between Biden and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi who's in Washington this week — the first visit by China's top foreign policy official since March 2021.

What happens next is unclear. Some former Chinese officials see the situation only worsening as the prospect of an incident in the waters could drag the US into direct conflict with Beijing — potentially making the South China Sea more dangerous than the Taiwan Strait. 

Either way, Biden and Wang will have a lot to talk about.

The Sierra Madre. Photographer: Bullit Marquez/AP Photo

Global Must Reads

US forces struck two facilities in eastern Syria that Washington believes were used by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and affiliated groups, following attacks since Oct. 17 that resulted in the death of one US contractor and injured 21 American personnel. Iran's foreign minister warned the US won't escape unaffected if the Hamas-Israel war turns into a broader conflict.

Just months after stepping down as China's No. 2 official, former Premier Li Keqiang died of a heart attack at the age of 68. During the decade he steered the world's second-largest economy, Li represented a more liberal economic vision and made closing the nation's yawning wealth gap a priority. Yet his influence was diminished by the expansion of President Xi Jinping's power.

Li Keqiang. Photographer: Feng Li/Getty Images  

The newly installed speaker of the US House, Mike Johnson, said the chamber will consider military assistance for Ukraine and Israel as separate measures, complicating Biden's bid to secure support for the US allies. Growing skepticism among House Republicans over backing for Ukraine was one of the issues in the party's three-week struggle to pick a new speaker.

India is setting up a border surveillance system using high-altitude drones to ward off surprise attacks like the one by Hamas in Israel, Anto Antony and Sudhi Ranjan Sen report. The move comes as tensions with neighboring China and Pakistan persist, especially along the Himalayas. The military wants the system up and running across some parts of the border as early as May, sources say.

Malaysia's royal families chose as its next king Sultan Ibrahim Sultan Iskandar, the ruler of the southernmost state bordering Singapore who commands a private army and has significant business interests. It is a role that's become increasingly important in determining who takes the reins of government in the Southeast Asian nation.

China is not expected to attend a meeting of national security advisers in Malta this weekend where officials from more than 55 nations will discuss Ukraine's drive to build support for its so-called peace formula.

The daughter of former Thai premier Thaksin Shinawatra, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, was elected as the new leader of the party that heads the nation's ruling coalition.

Huawei's profit more than doubled during the quarter it revealed its biggest achievement in chip technology, adding to signs the Chinese tech leader is steadying a business rocked by US sanctions.

Washington Dispatch

Ron DeSantis often proclaims his contempt for Washington but he'll be back there today to deliver what his presidential campaign calls a major address on foreign policy, which has been thrust to the fore of the 2024 Republican contest since the Hamas assault on Israel on Oct. 7.

DeSantis has been highlighting what he's done as governor of Florida to offer support. "Florida's Israel Rescue Operation has completed four rescue flights bringing nearly 700 Americans home from Israel," he wrote on X, the former Twitter. "Two cargo planes with 85 pallets of donated supplies have also arrived in Israel."

He will likely devote much of his speech at the Heritage Foundation to the Middle East conflict and US-China relations. His appearance takes place as he lags far behind former President Donald Trump in polls. At the same time, he must confront the rise — and fundraising prowess — of former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley. In the weeks since the Israel-Hamas war began, she has continued to pick up support, thanks in part to her experience with international issues.

One thing to watch today: Core inflation numbers along with data on personal income and spending for September will be released.

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Chart of the Day

Israel's government said it knows of 229 people who were abducted by Hamas during the attacks. These are in addition to four people who have been freed. Israel has said it isn't sure how many are alive.

And Finally

In 1968, before the first human set foot on the moon, an engineer working on one of the Apollo mission's experiments proposed a new way to power the world: giant orbiting solar power plants soaking up the constant sunshine in space — unhindered by clouds, night or seasons — and beaming it back to Earth. In May, researchers at the California Institute of Technology huddled on a rooftop in Pasadena received a ping of energy from an experiment passing high overhead.

Caltech's DOLCE model in its deployed configuration. Photographer: Philip Cheung/Bloomberg

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