Monday, October 2, 2023

Ukraine is a sacrificial lamb

For Ukraine, the congressional spending bill was a big disappointment

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If you're Volodymyr Zelenskiy right now you'll take little solace from Joe Biden's earnest assurances that the US "will not walk away" from Ukraine.

And if you're Vladimir Putin in Russia you will draw the logical conclusion that Kyiv was just thrown under the bus when funding for Ukraine was left out of a spending bill to avert a government shutdown.

Congress is also facing a mutiny from far-right House members who opposed sending more assistance to Ukraine.

That's $6 billion in aid which is no longer guaranteed. Washington is a Ukrainian lifeline in its defense against Russia's invasion heading into another long winter. Biden probably saw this coming, so some funding was front-loaded, but the changing mood in the US ahead of 2024 elections is unmistakable.

Back in June, Ukraine had the momentum. The counteroffensive had begun and Russian mercenary Yevgeny Prigozhin was on his march to Moscow in an affront to Putin, his boss. Two months later he was declared dead in an unexplained plane crash.

Suddenly, after Zelenskiy's return to the US, where the reception was less warm than last Christmas, the bad news is piling on.

In Slovakia, Robert Fico is set to return to power. He would join Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban in being a contrarian pro-Russian voice in the 27-nation European Union.

Elon Musk, whose Starlink satellite network has been vital to Ukraine's defense effort, posted a photoshopped image of Zelensky on his social media platform X yesterday ridiculing Ukraine's requests for help.

The caption read: "When it's been 5 minutes and you haven't asked for a billion dollars in aid." 

A Ukrainian soldier on the frontline on Sept. 22.  Photographer: Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

Global Must Reads

Fico's victory in Slovakia delivers a fresh blow to Western unity and adds to the tide of nationalist and populist forces in the EU that have tapped into voter frustration over the pandemic, a cost-of-living crisis, and fatigue over the war in Ukraine. Slovakia's president today will ask him to form a government, kicking off a potentially lengthy coalition negotiation process.

A far-right Florida congressman and backer of former US President Donald Trump is leading the charge to oust House Speaker Kevin McCarthy after the Republican relied on Democrats to push through a stopgap bill to avert a government shutdown. Matt Gaetz and a like-minded group of House conservatives are battling moderate lawmakers in what Democrats call a Republican civil war.

Trump and Gaetz at the Iowa State Fair on Aug. 12. Photographer: Al Drago/Bloomberg

Climate will be a key focus at a major energy conference in Abu Dhabi where the industry's role in the energy transition will overshadow the usual discussions on oil investment, production and markets. This week's Adipec summit is taking place just two months before the United Nations COP28 meeting that will also be held in the United Arab Emirates.

Pressure to take the UK out of the European Convention on Human Rights is growing, threatening to open a dramatic rift in Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's cabinet ahead of a general election expected next year. Some Conservatives blame the ECHR for preventing the government from deporting asylum seekers to Rwanda.

Two of the best-known African leaders are on opposite sides of a bitter power play that can be traced back to the outbreak of war in Ethiopia, Simon Marks reports. A cache of documents shows how the government of Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed tried to discredit his compatriot, World Health Organization head Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus.

Turkish warplanes struck Kurdish militants in Iraq shortly after they attacked the main Interior Ministry building in Turkey's capital, Ankara, yesterday, the first such bombing since 2016.

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.'s approval rating saw its sharpest fall since he assumed power last year amid elevated inflation, according to a survey by pollster Pulse Asia Research.

California Governor Gavin Newsom will appoint Laphonza Butler to fill the remainder of late Senator Dianne Feinstein's term, making her the only Black woman in the current US Senate and just the third in its history.

Washington Dispatch

The US Supreme Court's new term that begins today will once again thrust the justices into heated political debates, this time involving consumer protection and regulation of social media and firearms. They're also likely to hear arguments on whether to limit access to a commonly used abortion pill.

This week, the Supreme Court will consider a lower court ruling that the funding system for the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau violates a constitutional provision requiring a congressional appropriation for government spending. The case will shape the future of an agency that conservatives and the banking industry see as a manifestation of an unaccountable federal bureaucracy – but that the Biden administration and supporters say has provided crucial safeguards and a check against corporate power.

The plaintiffs' argument rests on a novel reading of the Constitution, and a decision to essentially disable the agency would reignite scrutiny from outraged Democrats and others of the court that, according to opinion surveys, has lost the trust of many Americans. Yet as the nation saw after last year's decision overturning abortion rights, the court has few qualms about controversy.

One thing to watch today: The US House reconvenes as McCarthy faces a threat to oust him.

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Chart of the Day

The EU is placing a levy on carbon-intensive imports so that the continent's companies forced to comply with its strict climate laws won't face unfair competition from producers outside the bloc. Starting yesterday, under the first phase of the so-called Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, importers from six carbon-intensive industries will be required to start reporting on their emissions.

And Finally

Palm oil is a key ingredient in everything from ice cream to cosmetics and fuel, but many trees in big producers such as Malaysia and Indonesia are approaching their commercial lifespan of a quarter-century. Squeezed by high costs and falling yields, many smallholders argue they can't replant, constraining exports from two countries that account for 85% of global production. Oil World, a market researcher, warned last month of the consequences of an "alarming decline" in average yields.

A worker harvests palm-oil tree fruits. Photographer: Muhammad Fadli/Bloomberg

Thanks to the 32 people who answered our Friday quiz and congratulations to Steven Giorgini for being the first to name Afghanistan as the country whose currency was the world's best performer in the past quarter. 

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