Monday, October 2, 2023

Turkey terror attack spells trouble for NATO

A suicide bombing that rocked Turkey's capital on Sunday risks complicating the North Atlantic Treaty Organization's efforts to bring in Swe

A suicide bombing that rocked Turkey's capital on Sunday risks complicating the North Atlantic Treaty Organization's efforts to bring in Sweden as a new member.

The attack was carried out by the PKK, a Kurdish militant group whose activities in Sweden Turkey says go almost unchecked. A day before the bombing, Turkish authorities condemned Sweden for allowing PKK supporters to stage a rally in Stockholm against President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

Also Read: Turkish Jets Strike Kurdish Militant Bases After Terror Attack

Damaged vehicle near the Turkish Interior Ministry in Turkish capital of Ankara. Photographer: Anadolu Agency/Anadolu

"Erdogan is likely to use the PKK's latest violence in the heart of the Turkish capital as leverage to press for his demands for Sweden to intensify its crackdown on the group's supporters," said Nihat Ali Ozcan, a strategist at the Economic Policy Research Foundation in Ankara.

That would hardly be a surprise for Sweden, which applied for NATO membership following Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine and was then told by Turkey that it had to first suppress the PKK's activities.

Also Read: Why Turkey Is Still Blocking Sweden's NATO Accession: QuickTake

The Turkish leader eventually lifted his veto at a meeting of the alliance in July, fueling expectations that Turkey's parliament would ratify his decision soon after the legislature reconvened this month.

The weekend's attack by the PKK, deemed a terrorist organization by both the US and European Union, will likely spur Ankara to pose fresh objections to Sweden's NATO bid.

Erdogan may seek other concessions from Turkey's western allies, such as reviving membership talks with the EU, easing visa restrictions for Turks and acquiring F-16 warplanes from the US, Ozcan said.

Chart of the Week 

The market is in disarray in navigating what's become a once-a-decade crisis in Egypt, the Arab world's most populous country. 

Left without a playbook during one of the biggest selloffs in emerging markets, Egypt's bond investors are agitating over whether the nation will be getting the money it needs, wary of committing capital to a country whose government spends nearly half its revenue on paying interest. Egypt meanwhile faces an estimated cumulative funding gap of more than $11 billion over the next five years, according to Goldman Sachs.

The Slant

The day when the world's consumption of fossil fuels reaches its maximum level is nearer than ever, but let's not get ahead of ourselves, Javier Blas writes for Bloomberg Opinion. 

Need to Know 

Dubai's debt cutback: Dubai said it began repaying a $20 billion bailout loan from Abu Dhabi and the country's central bank, as part of an effort to reduce its debt burden almost 15 years after the sheikhdom teetered on the brink of default.

Saudi deficit: Saudi Arabia has rewritten its budget forecast for next year, saying it expects a deficit instead of a surplus as it ramps up spending and tackles uncertainty in oil markets. The Finance Ministry also revised its previous forecast of surpluses every year until 2025, now expecting deficits until at least 2026. The $1.1 trillion economy will narrowly avoid a contraction this year, according to Finance Ministry forecasts.

Abu Dhabi Boom: The emirate's non-oil economy expanded briskly in the second quarter as its efforts to become a hub for hedge funds and other financial firms start to pay off. Gross domestic product in the private, non-oil sector rose over 12% on an annual basis to a quarterly record of 154 billion dirhams ($41.9 billion).

Turkey-Iraq pipeline: Turkey said a key pipeline bringing oil from northern Iraq to the Mediterranean coast can resume this week, though an Iraqi official cast doubt on that timetable. The pipeline — which carries almost half a million barrels of crude a day — has been offline since March amid a payment dispute between Ankara and Baghdad.

More Deals: Saudi Aramco is looking for more acquisitions in LNG following a first-ever deal in the industry last month, as it sees growing demand for the fuel. Aramco last week announced its entry into the market with the purchase of a stake in a company that's acquiring interests in four Australian LNG projects. It will evaluate opportunities elsewhere too, said Aramco's Upstream President Nasir Al-Naimi

Higher bid: An independent committee evaluating BP and Abu Dhabi National Oil 's roughly $2 billion offer for 50% of NewMed Energy has requested the oil and gas giants substantially increase their bid. BP and Adnoc are now considering whether to improve on their initial proposal for the Israeli gas explorer made in late March or walk away, people familiar with the matter said. 

Local-currency swap: Egypt signed a local-currency swap agreement worth around $1.4 billion with the UAE, as the North African nation seeks ways to ease an economic crisis. The deal will allow for the exchange of local currencies between the countries' central banks up to 5 billion dirhams and 42 billion Egyptian pounds.

Visa-free travel: The UAE is weighing plans for a visa system that would simplify travel for residents to neighboring Gulf nations, including Saudi Arabia. The move would allow residents in the Gulf Cooperation Council to travel freely within countries that make up the bloc.

Coming Up

  • IMF meetings in Marrakesh start Oct. 9

Final Word 

At the biggest Middle Eastern energy conference this week, oil won't be top of the agenda. 

Ministers and business chiefs are gathered in Abu Dhabi for the Adipec summit, an annual meeting where oil investment, production and markets have been dominant topics in the forum's long-running history. This time around, climate is likely to take over.

The conference — touted as "Decarbonising, Faster, Together" — is taking place just two months ahead of COP28, the United Nations' flagship climate event that also will be held in the UAE. The country's role as host is forcing it to strike a difficult balance: pursuing its own ambitious oil growth while rallying countries around sweeping global plans to cut emissions.

Also Read:  A Kingdom Built on Oil Now Controls the World's Climate Progress 

Those tensions are likely to play out at the summit. Thousands of oil delegates will be in attendance as crude prices rise toward $100 a barrel, OPEC tightens supply, demand pushes record levels and inflation concerns ripple through the world. But it's all taking place in the shadow of the energy transition and the oil industry's role in it. 

Producers now "want to be part of the energy-transition discussion," said Ed Bell, a senior director for market economics at Emirates NBD PJSC in Dubai. Yet "they're going to be stressing the need for reliable supplies and that renewables can't do the job on their own."

Also Read:  UAE Oil Giant Doubles Carbon Capture Target Ahead of COP Summit

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