Monday, October 30, 2023

Rate hike looms

Greetings, it's Garfield here in sultry Sydney. But first...Today's must-reads: Retail boom cements November rate hike Tough trade postures

Greetings, it's Garfield here in sultry Sydney. But first...

Today's must-reads:

What's happening now

Michele Bullock looks set to make her first rate hike as the Reserve Bank of Australia Governor on Melbourne Cup day next week. Surprisingly robust retail sales for September are seen by economists and traders as sealing the deal for the central bank to end a four-meeting pause in its tightening cycle.

Trade talk: Prime Minister Anthony Albanese's trip to China on Saturday underscores the truce in relations with the nation's biggest trading partner after years when the Asian behemoth threatened to punish Australia.  Meanwhile, European officials are reeling in shock at Australia's intransigence over a potential free trade deal. And faster progress is being sought on the deal with the US and UK to potentially allow Australia to buy nuclear-powered submarines. Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles heads to the US and the UK in the coming week.

China's development efforts in the Pacific are ramping up, according to new research by the Lowy Institute into investment and aid in the region. Still, Australia remains the largest aid partner.

Qantas Airways says the competition regulator is ignoring "the realities of the aviation industry" in the case filed against the airline over alleged bogus ticket sales. Qantas launched its fight against the watchdog's lawsuit by saying it didn't delay telling passengers their flights had been canceled for commercial gain. 

Wind power is facing a perfect storm that has many key manufacturers struggling, writes Bloomberg Opinion's David Fickling.

What happened overnight

Japan's yen powered higher on reports the BOJ may further tweak its curve-control policies when it announces policy on Tuesday and allow 10-year yields to rise above 1%, 

Markets calmed down as Israel's ground incursion into Gaza appeared less extensive than investors had feared. Stocks rose, Treasuries fell and oil slumped almost 4% to fully unwind the gains that came after Hamas' attacks kicked off the conflict earlier this month.

Israel promised aid flows into Gaza will increase as its forces exchanged fire with Hezbollah across the Lebanese border and raided a West Bank city. Benjamin Netanyahu rejected international pressure for a ceasefire and dismissed calls for him to step down.

China and Russia publicly reinforced their bond at a military forum in Beijing, a move that defies the US and comes as plans take shape for Xi Jinping and President Joe Biden to meet. 

 X, formerly known as Twitter, is now worth less than half of what Elon Musk paid for it a year ago.

What to watch

  • RBA Assistant Governor (Financial System) Brad  Jones gives speech at 10:50 a.m. 
  • Australian private sector credit for September due at 11:30am

One more thing...

FIFA banned Luis Rubiales for three years after he sparked outrage by celebrating Spain's World Cup victory in Sydney by kissing star player Jennifer Hermoso on the lips. Rubiales, who was president of the Spanish Football Association at the time, breached a code of conduct that sanctions offensive behavior including "violating basic rules of decent conducts," FIFA said.

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