Crypto News: Oil up, handbags down

In the newsroom we are watching for the moment when London leapfrogs Paris to become the biggest stock market in Europe, again.

The word "again" carries some weight here because the moment we lost it last November was not unreasonably seen as a symbol of Britain's diminished status post-Brexit. But now, in the words of Bloomberg reporters Joe Easton and Michael Msika: "Britain's stock market is getting back on its feet."

According to an index compiled by Bloomberg, the combined dollar-based market capitalization of primary British listings stands at $2.90 trillion versus France's $2.93 trillion, and the gap has narrowed steadily.

St. Paul's cathedral in the City of London Photographer: Chris Ratcliffe/Bloomberg

While there are reasons for London to cheer, it does also look to be driven by a head-over-stiletto-high-heels tumble by Paris from last year's $3.5 trillion record. France's luxury clothes and handbags industry had been boosted when China eased its lockdown curbs at around the time the UK was convulsed by Liz Truss's tax plan, energy crisis and double-digit inflation. But since then, the Chinese economy has taken a beating, while in the UK a number of energy companies, enjoying high oil prices, are going gangbusters.

Easton and Msika sum it up like this: "So what's going right for the UK? First, its stocks are benefiting from a 30% rally in oil in the past three months. Second, inflation is finally cooling, potentially enabling the Bank of England to end its 22-month policy-tightening cycle. That in turn could weaken the pound versus the dollar, crucial for an index packed with exporters' stocks."

London still has its problems. There are the companies leaving for New York, as well as gilts having a terrible day of it today while being set for a third annual loss. This is the longest losing streak in data going back to 2000.

But for now, a Barclays' strategist is calling London's stock market a "good place to hide." Certainly better than last year's banker moniker for the UK: the most disliked market in the world.

Want this in your inbox each weekday? You can sign up here.

The stories you need to know about this evening

John Lewis boss quits as retailer grapples with turnaround.
Hunt offers wage boost for lowest-paid amid tax cut calls.
Londoners face 48% hike in water bills to fund pipe repairs.
Dr. Martens bets on Oxford Street return with new store.
Scientists behind Pfizer and Moderna mRNA vaccines win Nobel.

In Manchester, the Tories are having what is possibly their last get together before the next general election. Monday at Conservative Party Conference is traditionally the Chancellor's day, where the advances talked about above are parsed in detail.

But, no. Not this year. "Economy Day" makes it a prime target for photobombing by Liz Truss, doubling down on reducing taxes with the launch of the Great British Growth Rally.

It's less than ideal for the party trying to move on from her 49 days in office. Jeremy Hunt's press team must have wanted their man's trademark caution to be the main news story from today. Instead it's going to be a tale of two Tories, with Truss popping up to remind the electorate not just of the damage done last September but that the Tories are a party rowing with themselves. That's not one, but two, political no-nos.

Liz Truss at the Great British Growth Rally earlier today. Photographer: Hollie Adams/Bloomberg

To kick the day off, Hunt told interviewers there will be no tax cuts coming soon. Britain's debt interest bill has risen due to higher interest rates and that limits his space for tax cuts. On Bloomberg TV he said "we don't have that headroom," and he doesn't want to undermine efforts to turn the tide on inflation.

A few hours later Truss spoke at the Great British Growth Rally. We've looked many times with incredulity at Truss's lack of contrition – there's probably nothing more to say on it. The government certainly can't complain, they just have to try to offer an even more captivating agenda.

For this, Adrian Wooldridge's latest column tells us that Sunak's journey to the top was so swift he still remains a "blur" to many, with the nation being introduced to the "real Rishi" at this conference. And yes, this piece mentions my husband is part of a so-called "brain trust" so please, consider yourselves forearmed.

Wooldridge outlines an ambitious strategy: "[Sunak's team] recognizes that the Party's only chance of winning when you're 15 to 20 points behind in the polls is to make the election as presidential as possible. Focus on the toxic brand that is the Conservative Party and you are doomed. Turn the election into Sunak versus Keir Starmer and you might just pull off a surprise…the Tory Party has no choice but to roll the dice and let Rishi be Rishi."

Donald Trump will face off against New York Attorney General Letitia James starting Monday in a contentious civil trial that threatens his control over his real estate empire in the state.

Former president Donald Trump arrives at New York State Supreme Court to start the civil fraud trial against him on October 2, 2023 Photographer: Spencer Platt/Getty Images

The former president is accused of corrupting his relationship with banks and insurers for more than a decade by giving them financial statements that inflated the value of his assets by billions of dollars a year, from Trump Tower in Manhattan to his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida. As penalties, James is seeking a quarter of a billion dollars and to bar Trump and his eldest sons from serving as an officer of any New York company.

View from the top. Silicon Valley billionaire is mystery figure behind $70 million penthouse.

Get your (holiday) house in order. Airbnb is fundamentally broken, its CEO says. He plans to fix it.

Power play. A cache of documents reveal an Ethiopian government investigation into the head of the World Health Organization. He calls it a "smear campaign."

"[The Conservative Party is] proudly pro-car."

Mark Harper

UK Transport Secretary

Harper lays out the governing party's transport policies in a keynote speech at Conservative Party Conference 2023.

One key story, every weekday

The New York Stock Exchange in New York, US Photographer: Gabby Jones/Bloomberg

A summer in which inflation trended lower, jobs remained plentiful and consumers kept spending has bolstered confidence — not least at the Federal Reserve — that the world's biggest economy will avoid recession.

A last-minute deal to avoid a government shutdown kicks one immediate risk a little further into the future. But a major auto strike, the resumption of student-loan repayments, and a shutdown that may yet come back after the stop-gap spending deal lapses, could easily shave a percentage point off GDP growth in the fourth quarter.

Read The Big Take.

Allegra Stratton worked for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak when he was chancellor and runs an environmental consultancy, Zeroism.

Please send thoughts, tips and feedback to readout@bloomberg.net. You can follow Allegra on X.

Five Things to Start Your Day for the most important business and markets news each morning
Money Distilled for John Stepek's daily newsletter on what market moves mean for your money
Bw Daily for unique perspectives, original reporting and insightful analysis from Businessweek's renowned journalists
Supply Lines for daily insights into supply chains and global trade

And sign up for more Bloomberg newsletters at Bloomberg.com.