| GM reaches tentative deal. Americans are stressing over the economy. Analysts scale back their views on stocks. Here's what you need to know today. General Motors Co. reached a tentative contract agreement with the United Auto Workers union, bringing an end to a six-week-old strike that had upended US automobile production and cost the industry billions of dollars. The terms of the pact are broadly similar to the deals signed earlier by Ford Motor Co. and Stellantis NV, including a 25% hourly pay raise plus cost-of-living allowances over the more-than-four-year contract, the union said in a statement that confirmed an earlier Bloomberg report. Despite roaring growth and a resilient job market, more middle-class Americans are worried about the state of the economy than a year ago, a Harris Poll for Bloomberg News has found. One big reason: The rapid increase in interest rates deployed by the Federal Reserve to rein in inflation. They are now expected to remain higher for longer. In the Harris poll, the latest in a series taken for Bloomberg over the past year, 57% of middle-class respondents said higher borrowing costs were having a negative impact on their household finances. Some 44% said they were stressed about the economy. A Federal Reserve pause, seasonal tailwinds, an earnings-led rally. Many of the reasons that got Wall Street strategists increasingly bullish coming into the end of the year now look like wishful thinking. As Israel's war with Hamas escalates, souring traders' risk appetites and dragging the S&P 500 Index into a correction, some mainstay equity optimists are scaling back their positive views on what the final months of 2023 will bring. The US Treasury reduced its estimate for federal borrowing for the current quarter thanks to stronger-than-expected revenues, offering some relief for investors concerned about the rapidly widening fiscal deficit. The Treasury Department cut its net borrowing estimate for the October-through-December quarter to $776 billion, against the $852 billion predicted in late July. The new projection still marks a record borrowing amount for the calendar fourth quarter. In Wednesday's so-called quarterly refunding, dealers expect debt managers to lift coupon-bearing debt sales across the yield curve for the second straight time. Markets are already stirring over the Bank of Japan statement due Tuesday. The yen jumped after Nikkei reported policymakers are considering letting the yield on 10-year government bonds rise above 1%. If the central bank maintains its current policy of managing bond yields, known as yield curve control, the yen could face renewed selling from speculators. But major changes could invite further upward pressure on yields, possibly sending yields higher in the US and elsewhere. The S&P 500 rose and crude oil fell. Catch up with what's moving China's markets -- in Chinese -- with Bloomberg's new, free daily newsletter and podcast. Sign up for 彭博财经早茶 here. Here's what caught our eye over the past 24 hours. And finally, here's what Garfield is interested in this morning.
The yen surged overnight after the Nikkei newspaper reported the Bank of Japan will discuss a further tweaking of curve control that could let the 10-year yield climb above 1%. The policy meeting winds up Tuesday, and any such announcement could set off sustained gains for the currency, which has been hovering close to the key level of 150 per dollar — near the area that sparked intervention to halt yen declines last year. The slump in US Treasuries over the past two months has piled pressure on the BOJ — the 10-year Japanese yield climbed to 0.89% on Monday. The timing could also be good for both the yen and the BOJ, given that Treasuries selling has calmed down somewhat after last week's test of 5% on the 10-year note. With the US Treasury reducing its quarterly borrowing estimate and the Federal Reserve expected to keep its key rate on hold this week, that yawning US-Japan yield gap could narrow further in coming weeks. | 
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