Monday, October 30, 2023

Economics Daily: Europe eyes Africa

I'm Chris Anstey, a senior editor for economics in Boston, and today we're looking at Europe's newfound attention to Africa. Send us feedbac

I'm Chris Anstey, a senior editor for economics in Boston, and today we're looking at Europe's newfound attention to Africa. Send us feedback and tips to ecodaily@bloomberg.net or get in touch on X (formerly known as Twitter) via @economics. And if you aren't yet signed up to receive this newsletter, you can do so here.

Top Stories

  • German output shrank in the third quarter — raising the risk that Europe's largest economy is headed for a recession.
  • President Xi Jinping is set to tighten control of China's $61 trillion financial industry.
  • Israeli businesses are being convulsed by the war against Hamas.

Looking South

Chancellor Olaf Scholz just kicked off his third visit to Africa since taking office two years ago, seeking to expand Germany's sourcing of vital raw materials.

The trip showcases a new attention to Africa, with its wealth of mineral and energy reserves, from European Union members at a time when its former recipe of relying on energy from Russia and its intricate supply-chain ties to China has come under question over geopolitical strains.

Scholz's first stop was Nigeria, where he highlighted plans to boost the production and export of natural gas — a key ingredient for German industry, and one that's in short supply due to the rift with Russia over the Ukraine war. Scholz said in Abuja, Nigeria's capital, that it's important to "diversify production all over the globe."

The trip comes quick on the heels of a two-day summit the EU hosted to flesh out the Global Gateway, the €300 billion ($317 billion) investment program aimed at competing with China's clout in strategic regions, including Africa.

That gathering saw the EU, allied with the US, launch the groundwork for a strategic corridor to connect resource-rich Democratic Republic of Congo and Zambia with the Atlantic Ocean via Angola.

Congo is the world's largest cobalt producer, and it vies with Peru as the second-largest producer of copper — thanks largely to a surge in Chinese investment in recent years.

Zambia is also a key copper producer, and western governments have been seeking to strike alliances with both countries to challenge China's dominance in critical minerals supply chains.

For Africa, the newfound attention from its northern continental neighbor offers the potential to balance against Chinese influence that has steadily grown through President Xi Jinping's Belt and Road Initiative.

Coming Soon

Bloomberg's New Economy Forum returns to Singapore Nov. 8-10 as the world's most influential leaders gather to address critical issues facing the global economy. This year's theme, "Embracing Instability," focuses on underlying economic issues such as persistent inflation, geopolitical tensions, the rise of AI and the climate crisis. Request an invitation here.

The Best of Bloomberg Economics

  • The Federal Reserve's policy statement is setting up to be the No. 2 event on Wednesday, with investor focus instead likely to be on the Treasury Department's new borrowing plan, due hours ahead of the rate decision.
  • Christine Lagarde faces a fraught time getting an unwieldy European Central Bank to manage higher-for-longer rates.
  • A hold from the BOJ this week risks sending the yen to a multi-decade low and opening up his yield control program to speculative attack.
  • The City of London has fewer finance jobs to offer after a post-pandemic hiring boom left companies overstaffed. Meanwhile, England's artificial intelligence sector has about half the jobs open that it did two years ago.
  • The Swiss National Bank is cutting the amount of money lenders can get by parking funds at the central bank, a move that's set to save it about $660 million per year in interest costs.
  • Singapore's monetary policy "remains appropriately tight," according to the city state's central bank chief.

The Week Ahead

Employers in the US probably tempered their pace of hiring this month after beefing up payrolls by the most since the start of the year, consistent with a sturdy labor market that's powering economic expansion.

Government data on Friday are projected to show payrolls in the world's largest economy increased by about 190,000 in October, still-solid job growth that follows sizable advances in the previous three months.

Hourly earnings are seen rising at the slowest annual pace in more than two years, partly a reflection of increased labor force participation. Moderating pay gains help explain why Fed policymakers are projected to again hold rates steady on Wednesday following their two-day meeting.  

Elsewhere, a closely watched central-bank decision in Japan with a risk of a policy shift, no-change rate outcomes expected from in the UK and Norway, and possible rate cuts in Brazil and the Czech Republic will keep investors busy. 

See here for the rest of the week's economic events.

Need-to-Know Research

The 2023 baseball World Series is showcasing two of the most dynamic metropolitan economies of the US, according to Wells Fargo economists, as the Arizona Diamondbacks take on the Texas Rangers.

The Dallas-Fort Worth and Phoenix areas "rank among the fastest growing economies in the nation and are two of the driving forces behind the rapidly growing Sun Belt region," economists including Charles Doherty wrote in a note Friday. The series also caps a season that showed a surge in demand for services entertainment: 2023 saw greater game attendance than the year before the pandemic.

"American consumers appear hungry for experiences and entertainment," the team wrote. And that's contributed to inflation: prices for sporting-event admission in September were up almost 19% from a year before. Baseball attendance is helped by its being one of the most-affordable live events. Wells Fargo cited a USA Today survey showing the average price for the least expensive ticket in Major League Baseball was just $11.   

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